UFC on ESPN+ 58: Almeida vs Marques - Prediction & Analysis - 02/05/22
Jailton Almeida vs Danilo Marques
Danilo Marques (11-3-0) was on his way to making it 3 UFC wins in a row before a 3rd round blitz from Kennedy Nzechukwu threw a monkey in the wrench for the Brazilian. This will be the first fight for Marques since said defeat. Four of his wins have come by KO/TKO and 5 by way of submission.
He welcomes fellow Brazilian, Jailton Almeida (14-2) to the world’s premiere fighting organization. "Malhadinho" was last seen choking out Nasrudin Nasrudinov on Contender Series back in September. Much like his opponent, he has a solid mix of knockout and submission finishes. It seems unlikely this one makes it to the judges.
Almeida will have a 2 inch reach advantage but give up 3 inches of height to Marques.
How They Match Up
Almeida showed promise by out-grappling Nasrudinov, who himself is no slouch on the mat. He made a couple mistakes but I liked his ability to get back up and his tenacity in trying to impose his will against another grappler. That for me is the piece I need to pick him here as Marques, at 36 seriously slowed down in the grapple-heavy fight against Nzechukwu last time out. Not being able to lock in that rear naked choke with about 8 minutes of back control time is a bad look coming into this one against a younger, more athletic grappler. However, there’s a couple more items I should bring up for anyone looking to take a shot on the huge underdog in Marques.
Firstly, Almeida’s breadth of competition has been incredibly subpar so he’s able to get by on sheer athleticism alone. And even with Marques on the wrong side of his 30’s, he’s not easy to outmuscle. Secondly, Almeida has enjoyed decent height advantages throughout his career which has helped him in his ability to stay upright and hunt body lock trips during clinch situations. Marques, is a tower at 6’6”. I’m not certain if this will make a huge difference but it’s at the very least worth mentioning (one of Almeida's defeats came against someone who matched his height/reach/athleticism - although early in his career).
The experience thing though is a factor and there’s always the chance Marques bests him with it by just capitalizing on the newcomer’s mistakes and holding dominant positions (he has done this in the past). But ultimately I like Almeida’s chances to get out of any bad positions he finds himself in and proceeds to take over the fight with notable success probably coming late.