UFC on ESPN+ 58: Barriault vs Njokuani - Prediction & Analysis - 02/05/22
Chidi Njokuani vs Marc-André Barriault
Chidi Njokuani (20-7-0) enjoyed some moderate success in Bellator before losing two fights in a row. "Chidi Bang Bang" then got back on track scoring a finish in LFA, which set up a Contender Series fight alongside Mario Sousa back in September. The Texan seized the opportunity by ground and pounding his opponent out in the 3rd round to get a contract. This will be his UFC debut.
Marc-Andre Barriault (13-4) lost his first 3 UFC fights before pounding out Oskar Piechota in his fourth fight. He tested positive for a banned substance and had that fight overturned to a no contest. Fortunately for his UFC career, the Canadian middleweight scored two more victories to follow up this suspension.
“Powerbar” will give up 2 inches of height and 6 inches of reach to Njokuani.
How They Match Up
One thing I really like about Barriault’s game is his striking defense. The Canadian seems to cover up at the right time against the vast majority of power shots, as evidenced by his fight with Dalcha Lungiambula last time out. His gas tank is pretty suspect however as we’ve seen him noticeably tired after 1st rounds that really weren’t all that grueling. Even in his tired state though, he doesn’t take a step back, but instead marches forward to get within range. His boxing and dirty boxing in particular has helped him pull away on the judges scorecards in his last few fights. “Powerbar” is also as durable as they come, having never been finished, which is both a testament to his toughness and to his striking defense. He also has shown a strong affinity to get the fight back to his feet after getting taken down.
Chidi Njokuani is pretty much the opposite, content to wait on the backfoot and throw stiff jabs and body kicks. He also has the tendency to get clinched up for long periods of time which then can go one of two ways: solid Muay Thai strikes or extreme inactivity. Albeit the latter seemed to occur more in his older fights.
This is such a winnable fight for Njokuani if he just stays on the outside and works behind his excellent jab. The problem is his footwork is nowhere near active enough to maintain that distance. So once he gets backed up to the cage, he inevitably winds up in clinch situations. I’m not really sure who is going to benefit more in the clinch either as the time spent here will be a good rest for Barriault’s gas tank, and “Powerbar” is sure to keep the dirty boxing going to counter Njokuani’s Muay Thai. We've also seen Njokuani score body lock takedowns in the clinch as well as find himself on the receiving end of trips.
One point of frustration for Njokuani’s game is when he does go forward he is incredibly effective so to see him on his backfoot so often doesn’t always pay dividends. This is a tough one to call but I’m going to slightly lean towards Barriault to be tough enough to walk Njokuani down and pull ahead on volume, nullifying the huge reach disadvantage in the process. Njokuani keeping his head straight up in the air could also be problematic when Barriault wings over hands on breaks out of the clinch. This really could go either way and it definitely feels split decisionesque. Especially since Njokuani has seemed to be making solid adjustments lately.