UFC on ESPN+ 58: Betting Guide -02/05/22
Last Card Recap
Ugh, 2 bets correct and 2 bets incorrect. The unfortunate thing was the bet sizing meant a net loss. Hopefully anyone tailing the main single of Moreno hedged it when he got dropped at the end of the third round when Figueiredo was still plus money in the fourth. Once it was evident Figueiredo’s power was both still present and Moreno’s fearlessness was now questioned, our money was no longer in a strong position. I mentioned in the preview article that it felt like I was falling into a bizarre gambler fallacy taking Moreno and that came to fruition.
Maddalena performed exactly as expected but man, what a horrible performance from Kay Hansen. That was incredibly frustrating to watch on many levels, one of her worst. The size disadvantage really was prevalent and I should have given it more consideration or avoided this one based on that unknown.
I was on the fence to just take a flyer on Victor Henry due to the value on that line but opted for the safer Over approach which hit. Can’t be too disappointed there.
Lastly Tony Gravely performed exactly as we predicted and it was good to see he’s made adjustments to survive a guillotine (as he faced about a dozen of them in that fight). That was our only prop which hit and helped slow the bleeding. Ultimately, it was a net loss of 2.1 Units. Let’s see if we can have a better showing for this card.
Odds For The Card
Well I wound up picking the majority of favorites on this card so we are going to try a small parlay approach for this one. There’s full breakdowns of every fight already posted if looking for additional information on deciding whether to tail or fade.
Probably the one I feel best about. Dawodu will hold a huge edge in speed and technique, has faced way tougher opponents, and will have an opponent who’s eager to give him all the counter opportunities he wants. Trizano is tough enough to last to the final bell if you wanted to avoid the parlay and take Dawodu by decision as well. You could also substitute the over in as a decent parlay padder somewhere as well with both fighter's durability and lack of finishing power.
And with Rakhmonov, he really seems like a better striker and grappler and thus, earned this favorite price. Harris is going to have to make this a boring slog against the cage and that’s not really his M-O. I like Rakhmonov to remain undefeated here.
Going to really tempt fate with this one since I’m icey on the main event picks and haven’t bet one since taking Lewis to KO Daukaus. But it’s time to get back in the saddle. Strickland should clean Hermansson up on the feet quite easily. The question is if Hermansson will hold him against the cage and grind this to the mat. I like Strickland’s ability to march forward and stay in the center of the octagon which should help the defensive grappling cause. If he does get taken down, he should be able to get back to his feet. He also has the gas tank to match Hermansson as well. And if that’s the case, the damage on the feet should prevail.
Almeida is one of the biggest favorites on the card and isn’t in much danger of being finished. The only ill fate once again, is if Marques can impose his will enough to win with control time. I like the young gun’s chances to be a great parlay padder.
The other biggest favorite on the card, Brendan Allen, will be our last parlay padder. This is equal amounts fading 2022 Sam Alvey as it is picking Allen. Alvey has never done anything other than back up against the cage and look to counter, making him one of the most predictable fighters on the roster. He’s almost guaranteed to give away the first round and Allen could also go the grappling route and submit him. If Alvey lands a big left and gets the win then it will at least take a little disappointment out of losing this bet because he’s such a good guy. But it’s just so unlikely.
Johns and Castenada should be a good scrap but if you read the breakdown, low output and mediocre grappling from Castenada is a poor combination to take on Johns with. Admittedly, both guys have power and if Johns gets complacent, it could spell the end. But I like his chances to utilize leg kicks to slow Castenada down enough to be able to see the bigger counters coming. At which point he should run away with it.
Alexis Davis by Decision (2.05)
Julija Stoliarenko is an armbar specialist and Davis has never been arm-barred. Stoliarenko’s striking is atrocious and Davis should be able to outscore her comfortably on the feet. I like Davis’ footwork enough to hopefully not get held against the cage too often as she will be the smaller fighter. Stoliarenko is also super tough and Davis hasn’t finished anyone since Dana White had hair so if she does win, “by decision” seems the obvious choice. It also adds more than 60c on the dollar here which I think is tremendous value.
Phillip Rowe Inside the Distance (2.15)
I’m picking Rowe to win this and Witt has been finished in all of his pro losses (7) and all of Rowe’s wins have come by finish. The under at 2.27 also holds some value as I mentioned in the breakdown article, both guys are really equipped to exploit the other’s weaknesses. There’s the added bonus of Witt getting obliterated in the first minute a couple times so if he gets caught cold early, this ticket will cash.
Parlay - Dawodu/Rakhmonov 2U wager to win 2.6U
Parlay - Strickland/Almeida 1U wager to win 0.8U
Parlay - Johns/Allen 1U wager to win 0.9U
Phillip Rowe 0.5U wager to win 0.6U
Alexis Davis 0.5U wager to win 0.5U
Bet Record 2-2
Profit/Loss/Roi -19.1% -2.1U
Picks Record 11-10 (52.4%)