UFC on ESPN+ 58: Davis vs Stoliarenko - Prediction & Analysis - 02/05/22
Alexis Davis vs Julija Stoliarenko
Alexis Davis (20-11) won her first three UFC fights which tossed her into a championship fight with a prime Ronda Rousey. That would be as close as it gets to UFC gold for Davis as she was finished in the 1st round. Since that fight, she dropped to flyweight and lost 3 straight fights. As a result she has reasserted herself into the bantamweight division where she has split her last two fights (a decision win over Sabina Mazo and a decision loss to Pannie Kianzad). “Ally-gator” is 7-6 in the UFC. Ten of those 13 fights have gone to the judges’ scorecards.
Julija Stoliarenko (9-5-1) came up short in The Ultimate Fighter Season 28 finale against Leah Letson. This sent her back to the regional circuit where she strung together enough wins to fight for the vacant Invicta FC bantamweight title. She took home gold there which helped vault her back to the big show. Her UFC debut however didn’t go as planned (decision loss to Yana Kunitskaya) and her follow-up went worse (submission loss to Julia Avila). Eight of her 9 victories have come by way of submission for the grappling specialist.
The Lithuanian fighter stands 1 inch taller than Davis but will give up 2 inches of reach.
How They Match Up
Alexis Davis, at 37 has performed better than her last string of fights would suggest. She was ahead on significant strikes in all rounds during her last fight against Kianzad but her lack of head movement left bad lasting images in the judges’ minds. In any event, Kianzad was just a slicker striker that night. Even with some weak head movement, Davis is on a far better technical level than Stoliarenko, who is more of a brawler.
Stoliarenko’s main route to victory is obviously in the grappling realm and specifically, locking up armbars. Davis has only been submitted once in her career (arm triangle) so Stoliarenko’s main route to finishing the fight is less than ideal. The question mark however is this fight is at bantamweight and Stoliarenko has been in a brawl with a big bantamweight in Avila, and a grappling grind with a huge bantamweight in Kunitskaya. With the size advantage this time, she could conceivably just grind out Davis, who has been taken down by many girls in the flyweight division.
The sting of underestimating the size advantage of Jasudavicius over Kay Hansen last card is still fresh in my mind but I’m going to double down apparently and side with the experience over youth here. Stoliarenko hasn’t done anything to impress so far, so I'm going to have to see something before I can back her. Give me the Canadian to win a close decision.