UFC on ESPN+ 58: Witt vs Rowe- Prediction & Analysis - 02/05/22
Jason Witt vs Phil Rowe
Jason Witt (19-7) made his UFC debut last year and quickly alternated wins and losses for his first four fights in the big show. He most recently scored a close majority decision over Bryan Barbarena in a fight of the night performance. He’ll look to make it two in a row for the first time in his UFC tenure. He is another fighter who has been finished in all 7 of his losses.
Phil Rowe punched his UFC ticket after a Contender Series win by knockout back in 2019. His UFC debut didn’t go his way as Gabe Green used a heavy low kick attack to neutralize “The Fresh Prince”. Still, Rowe had plenty of good moments, reversing positions and attempting submissions throughout the fight. He then fought on a card that was also headlined by Sean Strickland most recently and this fight did go his way, smashing Orion Cosce in the second round.
Rowe stands at 6’3 and has a ludicrous 80 inch reach which will net him a healthy 10 inch advantage over Witt.
How They Match Up
Well we’ve seen Jason “The Vanilla Gorilla” (no, not Chase Sherman, there are two Vanilla Gorillas) Witt get absolutely melted inside the first minute twice in his UFC career. We’ve also seen him put on a dominant grappling performance en route to a submission victory. In his most recent fight against Bryan Barbarena, we got to get a taste of both worlds as he grappled an easy 2 rounds in the bank, and then got rocked and wobbled all over the cage in the third round. He managed to hang on and survive to secure the win but the man’s chin is incredibly suspect. That fight could have also been scored a draw as the 10-8 round 3 argument was definitely in play.
Rowe on the other hand has fast hands and the aforementioned monstrous reach advantage to work with, which he’s used to knock out quite a few foes by attrition. He’s also been taken down in both of his UFC fights already fairly easily. So as you can see, both guys are suited to exploit the other’s weaknesses quite nicely.
There’s also a bit of a bizarre paradox where the opposite is a factor. Meaning Witt has power in his hands and Rowe keeps his hands low and will gladly eat a shot to give one. Combined with the fact Rowe has a sneaky grappling/submission game and Witt has been reversed and submitted on the mat in the past.
So both combatants' weaknesses could become strengths in this one which is just the sort of randomness that happens in MMA (who saw WrestleGannou coming?). It's unlikely but worth mentioning.
But I have to side with Rowe on this one. Witt’s success with takedowns is predicated by patience and timing. He landed a solid number of double legs off well timed counters against Barbarena but he had to wait for those opportunities. I doubt that strategy will work here as Rowe doesn’t really load up on power shots. However, if Witt decides to blitz forward and close the distance to wrap up a leg, he will definitely have success, possibly even winning the fight by banking rounds. I just don’t like that path here since he’ll have to close a considerable distance and avoid getting sent to the shadow realm. Plus, Rowe has shown the ability to get back to his feet.
Lastly, even if Witt does bank a round or two, he’s liable to slow down and leave himself open to Rowe’s hands. Getting caught cold early or getting sluggish and blasted late - give me “The Fresh Prince” inside the distance on this one.