UFC on ESPN+ 59: Gabriel Benitez vs David Onama - Prediction - 2/19/22
Gabriel Benítez vs David Onama
Gabriel Benitez (22-9) got his UFC start on The Ultimate Fighter: Latin America 2 back in 2014. He would exit the competition in the semifinals but still go on to fight in the UFC where he would go 6-5. A TKO defeat at the hands of Sodiq Yusuff in 2019 would prompt a jump up to lightweight which would yield mixed results. “Moggly” would lose a decision to Omar Morales in his lightweight debut but bounced back to finish Justin Jaynes with a nice knee to the body. In his most recent fight, he would once again make featherweight, but lose a Fight of the Night war to Billy Quarantillo. He will throw down once more at featherweight alongside David Onama.
David Onama (8-1), a Fighting Alliance import, would take an undefeated record into his UFC debut back in October. But as you can see from that “1”, it didn’t go his way, as he would get taken down by Mason Jones 8 times on route to his first pro loss. “The Silent Assassin” (I swear UFC has more assassins than the John Wick universe) finished all 8 of his fights by submission (3) or strikes (5). It should be noted that his debut loss was at lightweight but he’s been known to bounce between the two weight classes.
Onama will hold 3 inches of both height and reach over Benitez.
How They Match Up
Watching back some of Benitez’s past fights and the guy has been in some brawls. Sometimes he shows up and he just has it - firing off dismantling low kicks, landing often and pumping out high volume. Other times, like in his last fight, he has next to no striking defense, no ability to stop a takedown, and no accuracy when landing his own strikes. One thing that is always present is that Mexican toughness but man he’s inconsistent.
Onama is a rangey featherweight with power in his hands. He’s quick, athletic, and has pretty good footwork. He was getting buckled a bit by jabs last time out so I’m curious how good his chin is but they might have been stumbles as he recovered quick. Takedown defense isn’t his strong suit as evidenced by his octagon debut but there’s a ton of good to be taken from that loss. He was a huge dog and you could make an argument for him winning that bout.
Not that it’s likely to come into play here. Both fighters prefer to keep the fight standing so it’s likely that’s what we’ll get. If either of them were to grapple they’d likely have success as both guys readily give up their back. But like I said, probably a non starter so let’s look at the other factors.
Both guys were in grueling slogs last time out and it Onama did not appear in the absolute gassed state that Benitez was in. I suspect the youth and athleticism is going to give Onama a clear gas tank edge if this fight gets grueling. Benitez isn’t old by any means but he has a lot more pro fights and a hell of a lot more damage absorbed over his career. Despite Onama having a solid reach advantage, he sometimes struggles to keep fighters on the end of it so I expect some frenetic exchanges. If Benitez really relies on his leg kicks he could slow down his faster opponent but he hasn’t been showcasing that much lately. I suspect Onama to eventually catch and drop “Moggly” at some point. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Benitez turn back the clock with a KO but I have to side with the faster, more athletic, younger fighter here to pick him apart at range or drop him in the pocket.