UFC on ESPN+ 59: Jesse Strader vs Chad Anheliger - Prediction - 2/19/22
Chad Anheliger vs Jesse Strader
Jesse Strader (5-2) would go 5-1 on the regional scene while finishing all but one of his opponents during that stretch. His UFC debut would go from bad to worse as “Sui Generis” would miss weight and then get knocked out by Montel Jackson in the first round. His other pro defeat would also come via strikes at the hands(knees) of Marcelo Rojo, who fought on the last card.
Chad Anheliger (11-5) would experience a rough start to his pro career, dropping 5 of his first 7 fights. “The Monster” would then get some momentum going by winning his next 8 regional circuit bouts and securing both the flyweight and bantamweight RiseFC titles. This set him up with a Contender Series bout which saw the Canadian take Muin Gafurov to split decision. He will make his official UFC debut this Saturday.
Anheliger will give up 1 inch of height and half a foot of reach to his bantamweight foe.
How They Match Up
Strader had a very tough debut as a huge underdog to Montel Jackson. He gets a softer, more even match this time out. When watching back through Strader’s catalogue, there’s no secret that he’s looking to stand and bang. He has power in his hands and will often alternate left and right hooks in exchanges. Sometimes alternating body/head hooks but they almost always come looping. This unfortunately leaves his head completely exposed and I’m sure he’s going to suffer knockout defeats in the future if he doesn’t fix this. He would really benefit from using his huge reach to throw more straight shots but he really opts to throw the looping shots. It’s great if they land of course, as he’s knocked out a few fighters doing this but I’m not sure how much success he’ll have at the UFC level going this route.
I’m not too sure Anheliger is UFC level however. He came back from some dicey moments in his Contender Series bout but honestly that could have been scored in his opponent’s favor just as easily. He has strung together some guillotine submissions but that usually requires an opponent willing to shoot in for a takedown. He definitely has huge holes in his takedown defense but it seems unlikely that Strader will exploit this. So that leaves the striking battle to dissect.
Anheliger will hold a large edge in durability and experience here. Which means Strader will have to survive 15 minutes throwing hands with no defense against a decent counter striker. If Strader doesn’t get knocked out then there’s a very real chance he wins a decision as his power shots will look great to the judges. I expect him to look pretty good early too as Anheliger looks to be a bit of a slow starter. Nevertheless, the Canadian probably takes over late as Strader’s gas tank is also suspect. I don’t have a lot of confidence in either guy, and these odds are way too wide, but I guess if forced to pick one, I’ll side with Anheliger to eventually find Strader’s all-too-exposed chin at some point.