UFC on ESPN+ 59: Jim Miller vs Nikolas Motta - Prediction - 2/19/22
Jim Miller vs Nikolas Motta
If we gave a full history of Jim Miller’s (33-16 w/ 1 NC) UFC career we’d be here all day. The New Jersey native holds the record for most UFC fights at 38 and in that time has fought every prospect looking to break into the lightweight rankings there is. Routinely turning them away to the tune of 18 pro submission victories, “A-10” hasn’t really shown any signs of declining. Most recently he was seen knocking out Erick Gonzalez in October. The 38 year old looks to duplicate that success against yet another up and comer in Nikolas Motta.
Nikolas Motta (12-3) came up short on The Ultimate Fighter: Brazil but would find success thereafter by securing the Cage Fighting FC lightweight championship. He would then punch his UFC ticket by defeating Joseph Lowry on the Contender Series back in 2020. He wound up sitting on the shelf for a while as previous bookings against Damir Hadžović and Cameron Van Camp would fall through. “Iron” was actually scheduled to face Miller back in September, but Miller ended up contracting Covid and the bout would be scrapped. Luckily for us, it has been rebooked and looks like both parties are healthy and ready to throw down.
Motta will hold a 1 inch height advantage but give away the same amount in reach to Miller.
How They Match Up
There was lots to like about Motta in his Contender Series fight. The Brazilian’s accuracy in a firefight was excellent. But what I really liked was his attention to his striking defense during those wild exchanges. So many young fighters will drop their hands during those brawl moments and end up waking up to the arena lights. He also kept his opponent on the end of his punches instead of getting caught up in a clinch when he was scoring. It’s tougher to gauge how good Motta’s defensive grappling is, as he’s succumbed to rear naked chokes in the past but also turned away Joe Solecki for a few rounds.
It’s no secret Miller does his best work early in fights as he tends to slow down considerably late. What makes this interesting is Motta has been submitted and knocked out in the past early so Miller is certainly a live dog. There’s also a gigantic gap in UFC experience and breadth of competition that Miller can lean on.
For me though it looks to be a tougher matchup for Miller. Motta has shown to be very patient and poised when looking for openings so I don’t think he’s going to be rattled by UFC jitters or caught early (when Miller is his most dangerous). He’s also excellent at punishing overhands which is one of Miller’s go to moves when on the feet. Lastly, Miller’s large edge in grappling is the obvious route to victory but he seems to want to brawl more often lately. Give me Motta to make a successful debut.