UFC on ESPN+ 59: Joaquin Buckley vs Abdul Razak Alhassan - Prediction - 2/19/22
Joaquin Buckley vs Abdul Razak Alhassan
You probably know Joaquin Buckley (13-4) for his 2020 knockout of the year which saw the St. Louis native land a beautifully timed spinning back kick on Impa Kasanganay’s head. All 5 of “New Mansa”’s UFC fights have ended up as a knockout finish (although he was on the wrong side of that knockout equation twice). He was finished by Kevin Holland in his debut, but then followed that up with the Kasanganay KO as well as a knockout over Jordan Wright. His momentum would be halted by Alessio Di Chirico’s head kick the next time out, but he managed to right the ship in his most recent octagon visit by knocking out Antonio Arroyo in the third round.
Abdul Razak Alhassan (11-4) made his octagon debut back in 2016 at welterweight. He’d make his debut a successful one by knocking out Charles Ward. Omari Akhmedov would largely outgrapple Alhassan on route to his first pro defeat via split decision. “Judo Thunder” would then knock out Sabah Homasi twice and Niko Price to put together a nice little 3 fight winning streak. Unfortunately for Alhassan, Jacob Malkoun and Mournir Lazzez would wrestle him to 2 more decision defeats, and Khaos Williams would knock out the Fortis MMA prospect in between those losses to extend the streak to 3. Adding insult to injury, Alhassan would miss weight in 2 of those 3 fights, forcing him to middleweight (against Malkoun). Alhassan would get back on track however by knocking out Alessio Di Chirico with a beautiful head kick back in the summer (also at middleweight).
Both fighters will stand at 5’10” but Buckley will enjoy a 3 inch reach advantage.
How They Match Up
We saw a more measured Joaquin Buckley last time out against Antonio Arroyo. Measured might be the wrong word actually as the he was still very active with his footwork and constantly looking for ways inside. But he also seemed to pay close attention to his defense the whole way. He managed to overcome the huge difference in height without leaving himself open too many times on the rush. We saw him struggle and get knocked out against a similarly lanky fighter in Kevin Holland in his debut. He’s also not against mixing in a bit of grappling and even if unsuccessful, it at least gets his opponent thinking about it. Some other items in Buckley’s favour is that he’s not only incredibly athletic, but has a solid gas tank. The latter point helps him maintain his level of power and danger later in fights. He will also hold a considerable advantage in the father time battle for this one.
Alhassan also falls into the power puncher archetype and when things are going well for him, he’s blasting guys out in the first round. We’ve also seen him knocked stiff in the aforementioned Williams fight. I’m sure a combination of Williams' power and a difficult weight cut for Alhassan led to that one. At middleweight, we have a pretty limited sample size as he was badly outgrappled against Malkoun and only threw one strike and got another early KO against Di Chirico.
I would expect a guy with the “Judo Thunder” moniker to be a way more effective MMA grappler but it’s honestly been his achilles heel in the UFC. He’s been inept at stopping takedowns and any sort of 1st round grappling saps Alhassan’s striking effectiveness later. Buckley however, is solid throughout the fight. Buckley would be wise to utilize a grapple heavy attack early so that he could take over late.
Unfortunately, I don’t have a ton of faith that he’s going to do that. He’s shot for takedowns at really odd times (2 seconds left in a round) so I think it’s more part of a reflex and less a game plan. I can see this becoming a firefight similar to the Price/Alhassan bout and then it’s anyone’s guess who gets melted in that exchange. When breaking everything down, it should be a pretty obvious Buckley lean with his improved defense, better gas tank, youth advantage (29 vs 36), and power, but he’s going to have to get past whatever madness happens in round 1. Alhassen will probably get the exact fight he wants and without depleting himself with a brutal weight cut, I have a suspicion that his chin might hold up. But ultimately the longer the fight goes, the more in favor it will swing towards Buckley so if it’s a coin flip early but a favorite late, I gotta go with Buckley.