UFC on ESPN+ 59: Jonathan Pearce vs Christian Rodriguez- Prediction - 2/19/22
Jonathan Pearce vs Christian Rodriguez
Jonathan Pearce (11-4) bounced around the regional circuits taking fights anywhere between bantamweight and lightweight before getting a Contender Series Opportunity. He made good on it, by finishing Jacob Rosales in the 3rd round. Pearce would soon acquire his first TKO loss however as Joe Lauzon spoiled the debut for the 29 year old out of Tennessee. “JSP” would then drop to featherweight and pound out Kai Kamaka III as well as submit Omar Morales in subsequent octagon visits. He only managed to fight once in 2020 and 2021 due to a couple bouts falling through. His original opponent (Austin Lingo) recently dropped out of this fight but luckily, Christian Rodriguez stepped up on short notice.
Undefeated Christian Rodriguez (7-0) has jumped around between Bellator, LFA, and CFFC for his first 5 pro fights. He finished all opponents in that stretch, which would land him on the Contender Series back in October. Despite winning that fight handedly by decision, he was not awarded a contract (possibly missing the weight limit for that bantamweight fight had something to do with it). He probably won’t have to worry about the scale on this one since it will be contested at featherweight. “Ceerod” does have a couple decision losses on his amateur record but he’ll look to keep his pro record pristine on this short notice opportunity.
Reach will be identical but Pearce will hold a 5 inch height advantage as he is a tower for the lower weight classes at 6’0 tall.
How They Match Up
There’s no secret of what Pearce wants to do. And that is to get the fight to the ground early and often. He has a solid gas tank as well so he can keep up with the relentless takedown attempts for the full 15. I also like that he prioritizes position vs submission well. We saw that in the Morales fight and ultimately the submission opportunity became available. Admittedly, seeing him fail to secure hooks while on the back and then getting dumped over the top and reversed was a bit alarming, but he managed to get things back to where he wanted shortly thereafter. His striking is pretty wild on offense and pretty weak on defense but you can see he has power in his hands. Despite throwing those shots with everything he has, his gas tank, as mentioned, is in his favour. He doesn’t get into too much trouble standing since the takedown attempt isn’t far behind the striking exchanges.
Rodriguez has excellent hands, in particular his 1-2 finds his mark more times than not. He has the kind of technical striking base we’ve come to expect from Roufusport prospects. His hands always come right back to his guard and he still mixes in his own style with some step-in elbows as well as shoulder strikes from the clinch. He showed us in the Contender Series fight in particular a lightning quick sprawl as well, which comes from always being balanced and rarely over extending himself while standing.
The main red flag for that fight however is the startling amount of time Rodriguez spent pressed against the cage by a smaller fighter. And although he defended the vast majority of takedowns, his opponent did manage to get some back control time on the 2 successful takedowns. That just seems like a recipe for disaster against Pearce. I suspect Pearce is going to be stuck to Rodriguez for the entire fight, taking rounds with control time. While on the feet though, Rodriguez will outstrike Pearce comfortably. The issue is it seems unlikely that Rodriguez will one-shot Pearce despite having that huge technical edge so any damage he does rack up will be offset by Pearce backpacking him. In short, the short-notice and the huge size disadvantage Rodriguez will experience should be too much to overcome. I’ll take Pearce.