UFC on ESPN+ 60: Betting Guide - 2/26/22
Last Card Recap
Despite doing well with the picks, we took a loss on the card. Onama, Daukaus and Hill performed exactly as predicted to stop the bleeding but Belbita and Clark gave us a -1.4 U L. Clark in particular was frustrating as I praised her fight IQ from past fights and she very clearly had a gameplan to hang out in her opponent’s wheelhouse for reasons I will never understand. I even watched a series of interviews beforehand and she was aware of Egger’s judo/talked of a game plan. That went out the window I guess.
The Belbita fight was pretty close, so much so that she was favored on the live betting after the second round. On a side note, this would be a great opportunity to potentially hedge a bet. I usually ask myself a couple questions in these situations. Is this fight panning out the way I expected/predicted? For this one it was not, Belbita was not pressuring nearly as much as I expected, Paula was getting off great counters as well as her own leading strikes as the pressure wasn’t there to keep her honest, and Belbita was getting held against the cage quite a bit. Is my money still in a strong position? Nope, even at a slight favorite it was clear it was going to be a gamble and momentum was slipping as all judges scored the second round in de Paula’s favour. Of course, with a dominant third round Belbita would have won that fight and you could be upset if you hedged - but in the long run, utilizing that mindset will keep your money in stronger positions more and more which will result in profits. There will always be more fights next week. Anyway, we are getting back on track this week so let’s check the odds.
Odds for the Card
Ji Yeon Kim
Terrance McKinney (2.000/+100)
Great price on a solid prospect in McKinney. Ziam hasn’t really shown any killer instinct and his tendency to put out low output and fully commit to counter-punching means we know exactly what we are going to get out of him. McKinney can be a bit reckless for sure but volume alone should put him ahead on the scorecards. Despite Ziam having great takedown defense, McKinney is pretty relentless and he’s sensational at taking his opponent’s back so I think there’s a few things working in his favour here. Two of Ziam’s past losses have come by rear naked choke as well so as long as McKinney stays conscious, I like his chances. I put a lot of stock in Ziam's win over Mullarkey as he's pretty game but Ziam still let Mullarkey take over late with grappling.
For the prediction article, click here.
Ji Yeon Kim ML (1.628/-159) & By Decision (2.400/+140)
Think we’ll divide up a unit and place half on the moneyline and half by decision here. Cachoeira’s striking defense and Kim’s power could potentially lead to a finish but I like Cachoeira’s chin and the price jump on the decision prop. The line holds value if you believe Kim is going to take it, a decision is the likely route.
For the prediction article, click here.
Josiane Nunes/Carlos Hernandez (2.478/+148)
Nunes' scrappy nature and ability to just walk through fire looks like a great recipe to handle a fighter who hates pressure. I think this is a stylistically tough match for Pascual. Even when she’s gotten top control in previous fights she still found ways to lose them. Nunes looks to be a safe anchor. On the other side of it, I really didn’t like what I saw out of Altamirano during his contender series fight. Hernandez didn’t light the world on fire either but he looks to be a deal better in the striking. Both guys showed some dreadful takedown defense but at least Hernandez maintained a good pace through the entire 15. On a side note if you aren’t a fan of these small parlays you could leave Nunes off and take the ridiculous 2.800/+180 price on Hernandez winning a decision. A jump from 1.689/-145 to 2.800/+180 for a decision in the flyweight decision is amazing. For me though, there’s a bit of potential for rear naked choke action so I’ll take the safer ML officially with the Nunes anchor.
This section is reserved for random betting thoughts on the card, some potential very loose bets, or live betting considerations. Enjoy the fights guys.
Keep an eye on the Rodrigues/Petrosyan fight. I really expect Rodrigues to have another great start to the fight. If Petrosyan survives and Rodrigues gasses like he’s been prone to do, then I like Petrosyan to do to him what Park couldn’t and put him away with a hugely inflated live betting odds price. If you want to gamble a bit more ahead of time, the ITD price tag of 3.200/+220 is pretty solid. Just know that Rodrigues has the superior edge in grappling and if he chooses to use it full time, Petrosyan won’t get the chance to exploit his striking edge.
Rong missed weight by a sizable amount, just a heads up if looking to bet on that fight.
The odds on that main event are way too wide. I’m not betting it or tipping it but man, no respect being shown for Green who will have the edge on the feet and has an underrated grappling game.
I took a long look at Tsarukyan as a potential parlay anchor but watching him defend submissions for 15 minutes is going to be a sweaty time and I won’t put you through that. And ultimately the line is probably where it should be.
- I originally liked the over on Martinez/Perez but the line isn't offering the best price. Reasoning on the over is I think we will see Martinez’s standard kickboxing game from range for a good bulk of this fight. Combined with Perez’s low output and slow starting, I think we see a few good stretches of light activity. Martinez has pretty solid takedown defense too so extended sequences along the cage also seems pretty likely. If Perez does get Martinez to the mat then I like the clock to get burned off even more since Martinez has never been submitted. But seeing the many times where Perez was rocked and dropped, probably best to leave it.
This is not financial advice, practice good bankroll management and gamble responsibly.
Terrance McKinney ML - 2.0 U Wager to Win 2.0 Units
Ji Yeon Kim ML - 0.5 U Wager to Win 0.3 U
Ji Yeon Kim by Decision - 0.5 U Wager to Win 0.7 U
Nunes/Hernandez Parlay - 1.0 U Wager to Win 1.5 U
Bet Record: 12-7
Profit/ROI: +3.6 U/16.5%
Picks: 40-20 (66.7%)