UFC Vegas 5 Prelims Odds, Predictions and Preview
Back stateside for an August filled with Apex Performance Center shows, UFC Vegas 5 gained an unexpected pandemic-related facelift. Positive COVID-19 results from Irene Aldana thrust middleweight gatekeeper Derek Brunson and top prospect Edmen Shahbazyan into the headline attraction of an 11-fight offering this Saturday.
With the main card previewed, today we examine part one of prelims action from UFC Vegas 5. The following names combine Octagon experience and newcomer ambition to provide another week of spectator combat intrigue. These Zuffa representatives top the lead-in for the first of 10 UFC events in 19 days.
Fight one pits 39-year-old veteran Frankie Saenz (12-6) against favored Jonathan Martinez (11-3).
After gaining consecutive wins following an Octagon debut loss vs. Andre Soukhamthath, Martinez (-220) recently dropped a contentious split decision vs. Andre Ewell. Many, including Joe Rogan, cried foul when Ewell's hand was raised in February after the massive 135 pounder sustained visible damage against ever-evolving Martinez. Blessed with springy reflexes that enable quick combination strikes and intuitive defense, at 26 it appears "Dragon" is scratching his prime MMA surface.
Overall, Jonathan Martinez lands 3.67 significant strikes per minute at 48 percent accuracy. The Different Breed MMA affiliate enjoys stalking center cage where he lands 64 percent of his work. A bit undersized at 135, Martinez has landed three of eight UFC takedowns while being taken down nine times vs. four Octagon competitors. Martinez' one clear Zuffa loss came asSoukhamthath landed six takedowns while overpowering the stylistic striker.
While Martinez holds length, speed and kickboxing advantages against former Colorado State wrestler Frankie Saenz, there is the clear possibility Saenz could grind decision victory vs. Martinez.
Although, the lifetime collegiate wrestler was recently knocked unconscious by a Marlon Vera jab and hammer fists. There comes a time when every contact athlete can no longer sustain head trauma. It appears decades of mat rolling and martial arts have caught up with Saenz (+180). Competing at an advanced age, the 39-year-old is 2-5 in his last seven UFC appearances. It's also inevitable that Martinez will land early against Saenz as the latter will have to work to impose his style.
Less refined than his opponent while standing, workhorse Saenz nonetheless lands 3.97 strikes per minute and adds 1.77 takedowns per 15 minutes. The Triton Fight Center disciple telegraphed his shots vs. Vera before being caught with a stiff night-ending jab.
In a battle pitting dedicated striking against faded wrestling, Martinez could easily splice in another highlight reel finish to his UFC resume. However, I'll give Saenz enough credit to see the final bell as the fleet-footed Martinez piles up winning combinations.
The Pick: Jonathan Martinez by Decision.
Fight two places another 39-year-old Octagon vet, Ed Herman (+165), against GeraldMeerschaert (-190).
Spanning back to TUF 3, "Short Fuse" Ed Herman (26-14) has notched countless miles on his UFC tenure card. Saturday marks the Portland Native's 24th Octagon walk through 14 years of triumph, defeat and unending dedication. Once routinely scolded for his Devil-May-Care attitude, Herman is now a nostalgic fan favorite. The Team Quest and Gracie Baria anchor boasts seven TKO's and 13 submissions on his paid ledger. Never a true contender, Herman remains a gatekeeper separating quality and mediocre competition. Recent wins over Khadis Ibragimov and Patrick Cummins make Herman a threat tonight at +165 underdog odds.
Overall, the well-rounded Herman lands 3.18 strikes per minute and secures 2.45 takedowns per 15 minutes. "Short Fuse" is also efficient in both manners while landing nearly 50 percent of his strikes and takedowns.
Meanwhile, debuting light heavyweight Gerald Meerschaert (31-13) is no stranger as well to that long Octagon trot. Meerschaert has appeared 11 times under Octagon lights, submitting five of his assignments. In total, "GM3" has racked up 23 paid submissions. Although no such chance arose in June as Ian Heinisch delivered concussive fight-enders early to Meerschaert. Walking a UFC tightrope, the Duke Rufus trainee is 2-4 in his last six battles.
Plodding on his feet, Meerschaert lands 3.31 strikes per minute without much effect. The grappling savant adds 2.34 takedowns per 15 minutes while making good once the fight goes south: "GM3" has a high takedown-to-submission ratio, lacing six of 32 takedown attempts with educated concession holds.
Given Meerschaert's weight jump and lack of cage success his favored status is obviously a function of being seven years younger than Herman. However, entering Saturday Ed Herman is the naturally larger man with deeper MMA tools. Look for Herman to employ his accrued wisdom at UFC Vegas 5 versus an opponent not much longer for the big leagues.
The Pick: Ed Herman by Decision
Fight three offers former flyweight title challenger Ray Borg (-225) and Octagon newcomer Nathan Maness (+185).
Much isn't known about short-notice replacement Maness (11-1) other than he is 29-years-old, owns a sizable reach edge over Borg (13-5) and holds a minor regional 135 pound trinket. "Mayhem" Maness owns four TKO's and two submissions in his paid mma career. However, the Canadian hopeful was recently knocked out by fellow regional standout Taylor Lapilus. That ending doesn't bode well on paper for a fighter debuting against world class competition.
After gaining his limelight experience vs. then flyweight champ Demetrius Johnson, Ray Borg has been touch-and-go at bantamweight. Most recently being outmuscled by insanely strong grappler Ricky Simon, the 5'4 "TazMexican Devil" will again face a size discrepancy Saturday. Borg concedes six inches of height and nine inches of reach to Maness. Normally that discrepancy would be an issue. However, Borg is a known world class, prime fighter taking on a regional hand that was recently knocked out by sub UFC competition.
Look for Borg to explode into his takedowns vs. Maness while occasionally landing hard overhands. In return, the newcomer will have his standing moments vs. much smaller opposition, but the Borg takedown (3.89 per 15 minutes) will net the 26-year-old a third victory in four recent attempts.
The Pick: Ray Borg by Decision
With the upper half of UFC Vegas 5 prelims now predicted, check back soon for part two as six fighters and three fights remain to consider for Saturday's card.
Odds courtesy of BestFightOdds.Com
