Vancouver Whitecaps FC vs. San Jose Earthquakes Prediction, Preview and Odds - 10/2/21

A pair of Western Conference teams in desperate need of three points will square off on Saturday when Vancouver hosts San Jose. The Earthquakes are coming off a 3-1 loss to Seattle in their last match. Vancouver played to a scoreless draw against Houston on Wednesday. The Whitecaps are three points back of a playoff spot, while San Jose is four points back.

San Jose needs to get back on the winning track

San Jose comes into this match having lost a 3-1 final to Seattle its last time out. The Earthquakes were coming off consecutive wins prior to that loss, beating Austin (4-3) and LAFC (2-0). Their last five matches have featured at least two combined goals. Raul Ruidiaz scored a pair of first-half goals for Seattle on Wednesday, giving his club a 2-0 lead at halftime. The Sounders would add another goal following the intermission to take a commanding advantage. San Jose’s lone tally came on a Shane O’Neill own goal two minutes later. The Earthquakes held a 56-44 advantage in possession, but they were unable to capitalize with their three shots on goal.

San Jose was without Cristian Espinoza against Seattle due to a yellow-card suspension. Attacker Eduardo “Chofis” Lopez is in fine form right now. He has scored six goals and notched an assist in his last four matches. Lopez had a hat trick against Real Salt Lake and is in the mix for MLS Newcomer of the Year. The Earthquakes have been a solid defensive bunch, allowing 41 goals through 27 matches. They allowed 51 goals in 23 matches last year, so there has been some improvement. San Jose has the fourth-worst home record in the MLS, but it has been decent away from home. The Earthquakes are currently four points back of a playoff spot.

Vancouver is struggling to score

Vancouver’s recent matches have been played in a much different style than San Jose’s. The Whitecaps have not had more than two goals scored in any of their last four matches. They have only lost one of those contests, which has allowed them to creep back into the playoff discussion. Vancouver beat Austin (2-1) and Dallas (1-0), while playing to draws in two matches. The lone loss in September came in a 1-0 final against Portland. The Whitecaps are coming off a 0-0 draw against Houston in their last match. They are just 1-4-7 in their road matches this season, so most of their success has come at home.

Vancouver failed to record a single shot attempt in the first half, allowing Houston to pepper the goal with nine attempts. However, goalkeeper Maxime Crepeau stood tall in net, keeping the opposition off the board. He saved a pair of shots in the final 10 minutes of the contest. Vancouver finished with five total shots, but only one was on target. It has scored a combined two goals in its last four matches. The Whitecaps enter this match in eighth place in the Western Conference, trailing Minnesota by three points for the final playoff spot. Seven of their eight wins have come at home.

Pick: (Vancouver +120)

There are several factors point towards the home team on Saturday night. Vancouver is in nice form, having lost just once in its last four matches. The Whitecaps are also much stronger at home than on the road, with seven of their eight wins coming in Vancouver. They have been able to control the possession in most of their recent tilts, which has led to low-scoring games where they feel comfortable. San Jose has been playing high-scoring games, so this will not be a pace that the Earthquakes like to play.

Total (Under 2.75)

San Jose has been playing some high-scoring matches lately, but this is not going to be one of them. Vancouver is going to emphasize a slow tempo where it controls most of the possession and limits the number of total shots. Crepeau has been fantastic as a goalkeeper over the past month, not allowing any teams to get going against him. San Jose’s defense is vastly improved from last season, which is creating some value on the under in this match. This is an extremely important contest for both teams, so I would not be surprised if the teams take some time to get into the flow of the match.