Vancouver Whitecaps vs. Austin FC Prediction, Preview, and Odds - 9/4/21

The Vancouver Whitecaps will look to extend their lengthy unbeaten streak when they host Austin FC on Saturday evening at BC Place in Western Conference action. Austin currently sits in 12th place at 5-4-12 in its inaugural season after losing a wild 5-3 contest on Sunday against FC Dallas as a +104 home underdog. Vancouver has not lost in nearly two months, and is now in playoff position at 6-7-8 after easily beating Real Salt Lake 4-1 at home over the weekend to cash in at +117 odds.

These teams met for the first time ever in MLS play just two weeks ago in Austin, with the Whitecaps pulling off a 2-1 win on the road to bring in massive profits as a +486 underdog.

Austin’s defense falls apart against in-state rival

There have been plenty of growing pains for expansion Austin this season and those don’t appear to be going away anytime soon after it conceded five times against FC Dallas last weekend. While Julian Cascante tied the score at one 13 minutes in, Dallas would go on to score three more times in the first half alone, and a fantastic strike from Diego Fagundez followed by a headed goal from Alexander Ring after the break wasn’t nearly enough for a rally.

The two teams combined to pile up 35 shot attempts including seven apiece that went on target, while Austin held 63% possession as Dallas sat back after getting a huge lead. Žan Kolmanič, Sebastián Driussi and substitute Hector Jimenez all picked up assists on the trio of Austin goals.

Offense has been more of the issue throughout the season, with Austin putting up an average of 0.95 goals and 13.14 shots per game. Last match aside, the Austin defense has at least been decent, allowing 1.38 goals and 15.52 shots per game while keeping four clean sheets.

Fagundez and Cecilio Dominguez are Austin’s top players in its inaugural season, racking up five goals and two assists apiece. Ring has added three goals, while Jared Stroud has a team-high three assists despite only starting nine matches this season.

This is the most complete roster Austin FC has fielded all season after dealing with a ton of injuries earlier in addition to Driussi only recently being added as a designated player, although forward Danny Hoesen (hip) and defender Ben Sweat (knee) are out for the year. Midfielder Ulises Segura is also recovering from knee surgery.

Vancouver is on the verge of a double-digit unbeaten streak

After looking destined for a third straight losing season earlier in the year, Vancouver suddenly has a 4-5-0 mark over its last nine MLS matches, including a destruction of Real Salt Lake over the weekend in its first showing under interim head coach Vanni Sartini. The Whitecaps got some help early on a Real Salt Lake own goal, but did plenty of damage of their own as Brian White, Ryan Gauld and Florian Jungworth all scored within a 16 minute span in the second half.

Vancouver was in control throughout, outshooting Real Salt Lake 11-8 while getting five of those attempts on target compared to just two for the visitors. Gauld and Javain Brown also picked up assists, while keeper Maxime Crépeau was denied a clean sheet by a Real Salt Lake goal in stoppage time.

Things have gotten much better offensively recently for the Whitecaps, bringing their season numbers to an average of 1.29 goals and 9.90 shots per match following a very slow start. The defense is still having some trouble, allowing 1.48 goals and 13.66 shots per game while keeping four clean sheets.

Cristian Dajome is having a monster season to lead the Vancouver offense with eight goals and three assists. Brian White has found the back of the net four times, while Deiber Caicedo has chipped in three goals and three assists.

Strike Lucas Cavallini, who has three goals and an assist this season, is the big name on the Vancouver injury report after suffering a knee injury in mid-August. Fullback is a big question mark for Saturday as Jake Nerwinski and Christian Gutierrez are injured, while Brown is with Jamaica for World Cup qualifiers. Midfielders Caio Alexandre and Michael Baldisimo, who have combined for 20 starts this season, are both sidelined by foot problems.

The coaching staff also has a new look, as the team fired head coach Marc dos Santos last week after posting a 22-20-39 record in nearly three seasons under him. While the team has played well in MLS competition, a 4-3 loss to Pacific FC last week in the Canadian Championship was the final nail.

Side prediction: Vancouver Whitecaps +120

Total: Over 2.5 (-130)

Oddsmakers remain skeptical that the Whitecaps will continue this unexpected run, but it’s worth a shot sticking with the hot team at home against one of the worst sides in MLS. Austin has struggled badly on the road with a 2-2-7 mark while Vancouver has been dominant in two matches at BC Place this season, trends that will continue on Saturday.

A surging offense has been the key to Vancouver’s turnaround, as the Whitecaps have piled up 13 goals over their past six matches with the newly added Gauld already making a huge difference as an attacking midfielder. Austin just doesn’t have the firepower to keep up with a hot offense, as the expansion side is only averaging 1.29 expected goals per match to rank last in the West.

There has to be some concern about the normally sound Austin FC defense as well after it was completely dismantled in the Dallas match, and it struggled to contain the Whitecaps two weeks ago. Vancouver managed to get a win with the tricky road trip to Austin, and is certainly worth betting at plus odds for the return leg.

While still not a good offense, Austin’s stats offensively should start to head in the right direction as it gets healthier, and the addition of Driussi provides a much-needed playmaker for the offense. Vancouver’s defense has still conceded at least once in seven of the nine matches during the unbeaten streak, and allowed 2.5 expected goals against Austin in the recent meeting.

The Whitecaps won’t have any trouble scoring multiple times for the fourth straight match, as Dajome will be the best player on the pitch while causing problems for the slumping Austin defense. Both offenses are playing better right now than their overall stats would indicate, and these teams will get to at least three goals again.