Vancouver Whitecaps vs. Sporting Kansas City Prediction, Preview and Odds - 10/17/21

Western Conference foes will meet for an important match on Sunday night when Sporting Kansas City visits the Vancouver Whitecaps at BC Place. Kansas City last played on October 3, when it took down the Houston Dynamo 4-2 as a 149 home favorite to improve to 15-7-6 on the season, good for second in the West. Vancouver currently holds the eighth and final playoff spot at 9-10-9 after it was blown out 4-1 by the Seattle Sounders last weekend as a massive +399 road underdog.

These teams have met once this season, with Kansas City rolling to a 3-0 home win back in mid-May. Kansas City has historically dominated the matchup with an 11-5-3 advantage all-time.

Kansas City hopes to stay hot after international break

There’s still some hope that Kansas City could earn the No. 1 seed in the West as it trails Seattle by just five points after winning for the fourth time in five matches last time out with a blowout of Houston before the two-week international break. Both offenses generated plenty of scoring chances throughout the night, but Kansas City built an early lead as Johnny Russell converted a penalty and Daniel Salloi within the first 26 minutes, and second-half goals from Russell and Gadi Kinda proved to be important as Houston would rally with two of its own after the break.

It was an outstanding performance for the Kansas City attack, which racked up 19 total shots including nine on target while holding 59% possession. Salloi, Kinda and Graham Zusi were all credited with assists on the evening, while Tim Melia made two saves to help Kansas City hold on.

“I think we controlled the game. I think we just took our foot off the gas pedal and we made some bad decisions at times. I can tell you right now, you could have watched any game yesterday or the rest of them today and you’ll see situations like that. If I’m going to be a part of a team that makes bad decisions up 3-1 and then winning 4-2, I’ll take that any day of the week,” manager Peter Vermes told Kansas City’s official website.

Kansas City’s offense is the best in the West by most stats with an average of 1.81 goals and 14.42 shots per match. The defense hasn’t been too shabby either, with Kansas City holding opponents to 1.11 goals and 11.39 shots per game while keeping seven clean sheets.

Salloi is currently tied for the MLS lead in goals with 16 while adding six assists, putting him right in the mix for the MVP Award. Russell has been in terrific form lately to bring his overall numbers on the season to 10 goals with six assists, while Kinda now has five goals and four helpers.

Forward Alan Pulido, who has eight goals and two assists this season, is out for at least this match after having his knee scoped during the break, a big loss for the offense. Defenseman Jaylin Lindsey remains sidelined by a hamstring injury after making nine starts earlier in the year, while midfielder Felipe Hernandez is suspended due to a betting scandal. Nicolas Isimat-Mirin, who has seven starts this season on the Kansas City back line, is questionable with a hamstring injury.

Whitecaps still holding on to playoff berth after four-match unbeaten streak ends

Vancouver is one of the few teams who didn’t get the week off for the international break, as it was hammered in Seattle last Sunday and is now only three points ahead of LAFC in the race for the final postseason spot. The Whitecaps were overwhelmed by their first-place rival last weekend with Seattle scoring twice in the first 14 minutes, and Brian White’s strike just before the halftime whistle wasn’t nearly enough for a rally as the Sounders added two more in the second half.

While Vancouver had 53% possession, Seattle dominated just about every other statistic with 21 total shots, and only three of the Whitecaps’ 11 attempts reached the target. Ryan Gauld was credited with the assist on Vancouver’s lone goal, while Thomas Hasal made six saves but was just under too much pressure to hold up.

“The last six games of the season are not easy,” defender Jake Nerwinksi said to MLS.com about the stretch run. “But we know we're a good team, and we know that we're really difficult to play at home, so now we get to get some rest, get back home. And it's always hard for teams to play in BC Place, and I think we've proven that this year, our record shows it. So I think we still have all that confidence that we can get the three points.”

Vancouver’s offense has posted middling numbers for the season with an average of 1.25 goals and 10.67 shots per game. Last weekend aside, the Whitecaps defense has keyed the mid-season turnaround for the team, allowing 1.36 goals and 14.14 shots per match with eight clean sheets overall.

White has been in outstanding form lately, bringing his season numbers to 10 goals and one assist to pace the Vancouver offense. Cristian Dajome is also having a strong campaign with eight goals and four assists, while Deiber Caicedo has a team-high five assists in addition to four goals.

Forward Lucas Cavallini, one of Vancouver’s best players, has missed the last two matches with a knee injury but has a chance to return to action on Sunday. Starting defender Andy Rose is doubtful with a calf strain, while midfielder Caio Alexandre remains out with a foot problem after making 11 starts earlier in the year. The backline is potentially further shorthanded with Ranko Veselinovic (groin) and Erik Godoy (foot), who have combined for 30 starts this year, both questionable.

Side Prediction: Kansas City +170

Total: Over 3 (+115)

While the Whitecaps have a strong record since returning to BC Place in the middle of the season, few opponents provide more of a challenge right now than red-hot Kansas City. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see Kansas City lift the MLS Cup later in the winter, as it is one of the most balanced teams in the league with a ton of depth, and should not be this big of an underdog to win against the middling Whitecaps.

This is a very difficult offense to defend, as Kansas City features a high-pace, free-flowing attack that ranks fourth in MLS with 1.74 expected goals per game. Russell finding his scoring form over the last five matches makes things particularly hard on opposing defenses as it gives Kansas City another strong finisher alongside the possible MLS MVP Salloi, and the team has enough on the bench to make up for Pulido’s injury with Kinda also stepping up well lately.

Vancouver’s backline is a mess with injuries right now, and an offense that is pretty middling by most metrics isn’t good enough to make up for it. The Whitecaps might be a playoff team but showed they aren’t ready to handle elite competition in the blowout loss to Seattle last weekend, and Kansas City will make it five wins in the last six matches on Sunday with excellent value at these plus odds.

The Kansas City defense is good but doesn’t match the elite level of the team’s offense overall, and has actually been below average away from home with 1.52 expected goals allowed per road game. White can’t stop scoring for Vancouver over the last few matches, and the Whitecaps can at least get on the board here as the offense has been much improved over the second half and could get a key piece in Cavallini back this weekend.

Vancouver’s makeshift defense put up no resistance to Seattle whatsoever, and Kansas City can do a similar amount of damage as it has piled up 14 goals over its last three games. Kansas City matched this total by itself in the first meeting of the season between these teams, and the improved Vancouver offense will make sure this game goes over.