2023 AFC South Predictions and Over/Under Betting Odds
by Paul Biagioli
The AFC South was the only division in the conference to have just one team with a winning record last season. That team was the Jacksonville Jaguars, who went 9-8 and won a playoff game in the Wildcard round against the Chargers, before losing to Kansas City. Will the division full of young quarterbacks be able to find more success this season? Check below to see my predictions for the AFC South.
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Jacksonville Jaguars: Over 9.5 wins (-140)
The Jaguars won the division in their first season pairing head coach Doug Pederson with quarterback Trevor Lawrence. Lawrence is set to take a big leap in production heading into his third season. He threw 25 touchdowns with only 8 interceptions and led the Jaguars to five straight wins to end the season and grab a playoff berth. Travis Etienne Jr. is a solid young back, and the addition of Calvin Ridley on the outside will certainly help Lawrence’s growth. The AFC South is weak, they should get at least four wins in their six divisional games. They also play the entire NFC South this season, which is the weakest division in the NFC. The Jaguars are going over ten wins this season.
Tennessee Titans: Over 7.5 wins (-125)
Ryan Tannehill is not a top tier quarterback, but the Titans know this. Tannehill just needs to take care of the ball, and allow this running attack led by Derrick Henry to do all the dirty work. Tannehill had a career low 6 interceptions last season as Tennessee’s plan was to keep it on the ground. Henry was 2nd in rushing yards and in rushing TDs last season, he will be the driving force of the offense. Adding Deandre Hopkins may give them more flexibility in the passing game. Kevin Byard is a two-time First Team All-Pro at the safety position, and Jeffrey Simmons is a solid pass rusher off the edge. Tennessee will be able to go over eight wins in this division.
Indianapolis Colts: Under 6.5 wins (+120)
Rookie quarterback Anthony Richardson is not ready to lead an NFL team. He has breathtaking athleticism, but that does not mean he will excel immediately in the NFL. He only started 13 games in college, and his 24 TDs to 15 interceptions at Florida are not the type of passing numbers that typically impress NFL scouts. Richardson threw an interception in his preseason debut, and was not able to generate any offense in his first few drives. Jonathan Taylor is still on the PUP list, and it is rumored he wants to be traded; there is not much talent behind him at running back. Michael Pittman is their only reliable pass-catcher. The Colts are not ready to compete yet, and it will be a rocky start to the Anthony Richardson era.
Houston Texans: Under 6.5 wins (-130)
This team won three games last season. They added CJ Stroud, Robert Woods, Will Anderson Jr., and a defensive-minded first time head coach in DeMeco Ryans. These additions do not equate to four additional wins. The only great player on the team is Laremy Tunsil, but there is only so much a left tackle can do. Stroud is in a tough spot, they will want to rely on the running game, but there is not enough talent on the roster for this to be a winning gameplan. Houston needs more pieces, the rebuild has started, but it will take another year of roster building to generate more wins.
Division Winner: Jaguars (-155)
The Colts and Texans are out, neither team led by a rookie quarterback will be able to win this division. That leaves the Jaguars and the Titans, and only one of those teams have an elite quarterback entering his prime. Competence at the quarterback position will allow players like Calvin Ridley, Evan Engram and Travis Etienne Jr. to put up big numbers this year for the Jags. Doug Pederson enters his second year with this group, and success will be easier to find as the players are used to his system. The odds are (-155), only the Chiefs (-165) and the 49ers (-160) are more likely to win their division. The Jaguars have the best roster, best quarterback and a Super Bowl winning coach, they will win the AFC South.
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