One of the biggest Kentucky Derby prep races on the calendar will be run Saturday at Oaklawn Park. The $1.5 million Arkansas Derby presents a prime opportunity for handicappers to sharpen their skills ahead of Kentucky Derby betting (which is coming up in just five weeks).
A field of 10 3-year-olds will head to the gate for the Arkansas Derby. Here’s what you need to know.
2024 Arkansas Derby quick facts
- Date: Saturday, March 30
- Location: Oaklawn Park; Hot Springs, Ark.
- Distance: 1 1/8 miles
- Purse: $1.5 million
- Kentucky Derby points (to the top five finishers): 100-50-25-15-10
Muth and Timberlake the expected favorites
It’s possible bettors see the Arkansas Derby as a two-horse race. #7 Muth ships in for trainer Bob Baffert and is the 8/5 morning line favorite. He’s won three of five races, has run second twice (including in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile), and appears to be training very well in California ahead of his trip east.
Baffert, however, is in the midst of a suspension from the Kentucky Derby. He trained initial 2021 winner Medina Spirit, who was disqualified following a post-race drug test. As a result, Muth cannot earn Kentucky Derby points and will not be in the field on the first Saturday in May.
#2 Timberlake, meanwhile, won the Rebel Stakes, the local prep for the Arkansas Derby. He won last year’s Champagne Stakes as a 2-year-old and is trained by Brad Cox, whose charges have annexed the Arkansas Derby in each of the last two years. He’s the 9/5 second choice on the morning line, and he’ll be ridden by Flavien Prat.
Other horses to consider
The likely third choice is #9 Mystik Dan, who was last seen winning the Southwest Stakes. The track was muddy that day, and this Ken McPeek trainee clearly relished the wet going. He’s the 5/2 third choice in this race, which seems to feature a much tougher field.
The 2-3 finishers from the Southwest show up here, too. #8 Just Steel and #5 Liberal Arts will both likely be double-digits on the odds board in the Arkansas Derby. Just Steel is trained by 88-year-old Hall of Famer D. Wayne Lukas, while Liberal Arts has never finished worse than third in six lifetime starts.
Another Hall of Fame conditioner, Steve Asmussen, has three entries in this field. He’ll saddle #3 Dimatic, #6 Informed Patriot, and #10 Imperial Gun. Two of them (Dimatic and Imperial Gun) are sons of another Asmussen trainee, Gun Runner, who was third in the 2016 Kentucky Derby. All three of these runners, however, will likely be longshots on Saturday.
2024 Arkansas Derby selections
Bob Baffert has won this race four times (including twice in 2020, when the race was split into two divisions). A win on Saturday would tie him for the record in this race, and I think he’s sending a live one to Arkansas this week.
Muth beat Timberlake to the wire in the Juvenile, and while Timberlake’s win in the Rebel was visually impressive, I don’t think he beat much that day. The runner-up, Common Defense, came back to run a so-so fifth in the Louisiana Derby, which isn’t exactly a ringing endorsement. Timberlake isn’t totally illogical, but Muth hits me as the more likely winner.
If you’re looking for a bigger price to use in other wagers, I’d recommend Liberal Arts. Yes, Mystik Dan ran a big race in the Southwest, but I’m not sure that one will be able to replicate that performance on a fast track. Liberal Arts, meanwhile, didn’t have a great trip that day. He’s a consistent, hard-knocking horse that should relish the stretchout to 1 1/8 miles, and he should be a pretty square price.
- 1st: Muth
- 2nd: Timberlake
- 3rd: Liberal Arts
