The 2024 Kentucky Derby festivities are already underway at Churchill Downs, and if you’re looking to make some money this week, don’t sleep on that event’s sister race. That’s the Kentucky Oaks, which headlines the Friday program and has attracted some of the top 3-year-old fillies in the country.
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If you’re looking for a Kentucky Derby betting score, the card headlined by the Kentucky Oaks can provide a strong start. Churchill Downs is running several multi-day wagers, including the very popular Oaks-Derby double. Let’s take a look at Friday’s main event (we’ve also got a 2024 Kentucky Derby guide if you want to look ahead!).
The Oaks boasts a wide-open field
A glance at the morning line odds indicates that multiple horses could conceivably win the race. The 7/2 favorite is #8 Tarifa, who led the Kentucky Oaks leaderboard with 150 qualifying points. She earned those by winning a pair of major prep races at Fair Grounds in Louisiana.
Close behind her is #14 Leslie’s Rose, the 4-1 second choice. She topped a very strong field in the Ashland Stakes at Keeneland a few weeks ago and has won three of four lifetime starts. Trainer Todd Pletcher has won the Kentucky Oaks four times, and another win would tie him with Woody Stephens and D. Wayne Lukas for the most in this race’s long history.
Among the runners Leslie’s Rose topped in the Ashland was 9/2 third choice #13 Just F Y I. She’s the reigning divisional champion, having won last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies. The Ashland was her first start after a five-month layoff, so she may very well have needed that effort.
A pair of fillies sit at 5-1. #5 Thorpedo Anna is 3-for-4 and comes in off of a runaway win in the Fantasy Stakes at Oaklawn Park. #11 Ways and Means, meanwhile, was seen as a tremendous prospect after a first-out win last summer. She’s since suffered from terrible racing luck in her last two starts, and was most recently second behind #12 Power Squeeze in the Gulfstream Park Oaks.
2024 Kentucky Oaks selections
I’m taking a stand against Tarifa. She’s looked fine in her prep races, yes, but she’s gotten perfect trips against small fields and may be vulnerable going against a bigger, better group. At her likely price, I can’t bet her, and I also can’t bet Ways and Means. A clean trip makes her a player, but watching her races (and a workout earlier this week that trainer Chad Brown called “too fast”), I think she makes some of her own trouble.
Just F Y I, meanwhile, is in a prime position to improve in her second start off the bench. She draws wide, but she did that in the Juvenile Fillies, too, and the wide trip wasn’t a problem that day. Her best race puts her at the top of her division, and to me, she’s the most likely winner.
Thorpedo Anna’s return was very sharp, and she’s taking plenty of early money (as of midday Thursday, she was as low as 2-1). I’ll pick her second, and I’ll go with a bit of a price in third. Power Squeeze, 12-1 on the morning line, has won four in a row and has relished stretching out to longer distances. I think she could provide plenty of value in exactas and trifectas.
- 1st: #13 Just F Y I
- 2nd: #5 Thorpedo Anna
- 3rd: #12 Power Squeeze
For more on the Friday program at Churchill Downs, check out my betting strategies and spot plays, which will be part of our expert handicappers section. I’ve got advice on how to wager on the Kentucky Oaks with a $100 budget, plus analysis of several other horses I’ll be backing throughout the card.
