At its best, Santa Anita Park is a cathedral, with beautiful Southern California weather combining with a fantastic wagering environment. Saturday’s a big day there, especially for those keeping an eye on Kentucky Derby odds, as the Santa Anita Derby headlines the program.
The Santa Anita Derby is one of the most well-known prep races on the road to the first Saturday in May. This year’s event drew a field of eight, including two runners trained by one of the most well-known conditioners in the country. Let’s dive in.
2024 Santa Anita Derby Quick Facts
- Date: Saturday, April 6
- Location: Santa Anita Park; Arcadia, Calif.
- Distance: 1 1/8 miles
- Purse: $750,000
- Kentucky Derby points (to the top five finishers): 100-50-25-15-10
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Baffert Trainees Imagination, Wynstock Loom Large
#4 Imagination is the 8/5 morning line favorite. He ran second behind Maymun (who would have almost certainly been favored in this race if he wasn’t withdrawn earlier in the week) two starts ago before annexing the San Felipe Stakes last month. He’ll be ridden by international superstar Frankie Dettori, who postponed his planned retirement just a few months ago.
The horse to Imagination’s outside is a barn buddy, #5 Wynstock. Both horses are trained by Bob Baffert, who sent Wynstock out to a victory in last year’s Los Alamitos Futurity. Most recently, Wynstock encountered a sloppy track in the Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn Park and faded to last, but he’s worked very well since coming back to California.
Unlike the other six runners in this race, Imagination and Wynstock cannot earn Kentucky Derby points. That’s because of a suspension from the race that came after the disqualification of initial 2021 Derby winner Medina Spirit.
One horse that can earn Derby points, however, is #3 Stronghold, the 5/2 second choice. He’s finished first or second in each of his five lifetime outings, and one of them was a win in the Sunland Derby back in February. Prior to that, he was second to Wynstock at Los Alamitos and chased Nysos (probably Baffert’s best 3-year-old when healthy) in the Bob Hope at Del Mar.
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2024 Santa Anita Derby Selections
In both my Blue Grass Stakes preview and Wood Memorial preview, I mentioned how the favorites in those races hit me as fairly formidable. Even though I picked Deterministic second in the latter race, he could absolutely win (the two-turn trip just makes me a bit nervous).
This situation’s different, as I’m against Imagination. I don’t think he beat anything of true quality in the San Felipe. He won by a head with a picture-perfect trip, and this field seems considerably tougher. If he wins at anything close to his 8/5 morning line price, he’ll beat me doing it.
I much prefer Stronghold, who seems to be coming into his own in the spring of his 3-year-old campaign. He’s yet to run a bad race to this point, his last several workouts look very sharp, and we may get some value here if Imagination is overbet.
Of the Baffert trainees, I prefer Wynstock, whose Southwest dud hits me as a throw-out. A repeat of his two-back or three-back efforts gives him a chance in here. #2 Tapalo, meanwhile, exits a second-place finish in the El Camino Real Derby behind Endlessly, who came back to crush a decent group in the Jeff Ruby Steaks. His most recent work was very sharp, and he figures to be prominent from the jump given his early speed.
- 1st: Stronghold
- 2nd: Wynstock
- 3rd: Tapalo
