AFC East Predictions
by Paul Biagioli
The Buffalo Bills won the AFC East last season with a 13-3 record. Buffalo and Miami reached the playoffs, but neither advanced past the Divisional Round. The biggest news in the division was the Jets’ acquisition of Aaron Rodgers, providing the team with their highest profile quarterback since Joe Namath. Buffalo has won the division the past three seasons. Will their dominance continue? Read below to see my predictions.
Buffalo Bills: Under 10.5 wins (+130)
The Bills are overly reliant on Josh Allen to make plays, and his bruising style of running makes him an injury risk. Their defense is beginning to age, as Von Miller, Micah Hyde, and Jordan Poyer are all 32 or older. The team is trying to downplay the preseason incidents with Stefon Diggs, but it is clear not everything is right with his relationship with the team. The Bills have a grueling schedule, they play non-divisional road games against the Chiefs, Eagles, Bengals and Chargers. This will be the year the Bills take a step back.
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New York Jets: Under 9.5 wins (-105)
Adding an elite quarterback will not change everything for the Jets, and it is worth questioning if Aaron Rodgers is still elite. Tom Brady was the outlier in terms of how quarterbacks can perform in their 40s, not the norm. Rodgers will turn 40 this season, and their offensive line is not strong enough to keep him on his feet all season. Something is off with Mekhi Becton, after missing all last year with an injury, he subbed himself out of their first preseason game when the medical staff cleared him to play. The skill position players are a downgrade from what Rodgers was used to in Green Bay. Don’t buy they hype, take the under.
Miami Dolphins: Over 9.5 wins (+100)
The NFL has become a passing league, and the Dolphins have some of the fastest receivers out there. Tyreke Hill and Jaylen Waddle may be the best wideout duo in the game, and they added Braxton Berrios as a sure handed receiver to take the short yardage passes over the middle. Tua Tagovailoa was playing excellent last season before getting injured, he is back and will look to regain his form he showed early last year. Jalen Ramsey and Christian Wilkins headline an underrated defense that will be improved from last season. The Dolphins will be a surprise team in the NFL, and will hit this over.
New England Patriots: Over 6.5 wins (-140)
Bill Belichick is not a coach that will embrace tanking. It doesn’t matter what next year’s quarterback crop looks like, Belichick will find ways to win games. The Patriots won games with Matt Cassell and an aging Cam Newton at the helm, they will be able to get over six wins with Mac Jones. Juju Smith-Schuster and Mike Gesicki were added to bolster their receiving corps. The biggest addition is bringing in Bill O’Brien as offensive coordinator, filling a position that was basically vacant in the previous year. This is not Tom Brady’s Patriots, but this team will be able to win at least seven of their games.
Division Winner: Miami Dolphins (+300)
This team cannot be slowed down. Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle and Raheem Mostert create on the fastest skill position groups in the league. This is year two for Mike McDaniel and offensive coordinator Frank Smith, the offense will put up big numbers behind their play scheming. Vic Fangio joins as defensive coordinator to strengthen a unit with talent at all levels. Miami will shake things up in the league, and with these odds, they are a great bet to win the AFC East.
