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Winners and Whiners Writer and Expert NHL Handicapper Mayer Fink has some tips for you about betting on the NHL
NHL Betting Tip: Money Line vs Puck Line
The money line is comparable to all money line wagers in sports while the puck line is comparable to the run line in MLB betting or the spread in NFL or NBA betting. This means that a puck line bet will have a spread that a team must cover (-1.5 bets mean the Favorite has to win by two goals or more and a +1.5 underdog bet requires them to at least make the game a one-goal differential). It’s rather straightforward but for bettors, it’s essential to know which types of wagers to take when it comes to the NHL.
For the NHL season remember, hockey is a unique sport so it’s essential to remember a few things. This includes the fact that goals are harder to come by than runs so a -1.5 run line tells a different story than a -1.5 puck line (the puck line indicates the Favorite is more likely to win in this instance).
So, let’s dive into some things to look out for.
When to Bet the Money Line
Often, the best times to bet on the money line are in evenly-matched games. When a game can go either way, a money line bet will be the best option. Oftentimes, you can find good odds on a team based on whether they are playing at home, on the road, or in a big market so it’s always worth keeping that in mind.
Typically, in evenly-matched contests, home teams will be favored while the road teams will be Underdogs and these are the type of games where you’ll want to bet the Underdogs, especially since they can easily go in their favor. Likewise, teams in big markets or “hockey markets” will be favored even if they aren’t the better team per se.
The New York Rangers, Toronto Maple Leafs, Boston Bruins, Chicago Blackhawks, and Montreal Canadiens will often be favored even when they are playing opponents that are at the same level as them. While the Blackhawks and Canadiens are two of the worst teams these days, when they are good, they get a big boost from an odds perspective.
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When to Bet on the Puck Line
These bets are relevant when a team is heavily favored and significantly better than the other. An example was the Jan. 8 game between the Boston Bruins, who went 65-12-5 this year, and the Anaheim Ducks, who went 23-47-12 by season’s end. This game featured the best and worst teams in the NHL and their odds reflected that with the Bruins being -305 favorites but -1.5 (-110) puck line favorites. It was wiser to bet the puck line since you would get a better payout with a win (the Bruins won that game 7-1).
The bottom line is that it’s worth betting the puck line if you know the team is going to win and win handily. So, when is it best to bet the Underdogs in a puck line situation? The answer is in a game where you know the Underdog can make the game close. Oftentimes, a team will be heavily favored but playing on short rest they will be overconfident and start their backup goaltender. Additionally, there are a handful of teams that prove throughout the season that they can and will steal a game, making them a good team to bet on knowing you have a goal to spare.
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What to Watch Out For in Betting the Puck Line
Every sport has them but hockey has a particularly bad beat, one that will make you scream or throw stuff or feel like lightning money on fire (because that’s what just happened). In the NHL, there will be last-minute goals or empty-net goals that will be the difference between winning and losing a bet.
A team will have a 2-0 lead in the final minute, making it easy to think they’ve won the game and covered the spread but then the losing team scores what is an otherwise meaningless goal. Likewise, an Underdog can keep a game close all night and trail by only one goal but then in the final minute, they pull their goaltender to try to tie the game but then allow a goal to put the game away. You can also at times be on the winning end if these bets and get lucky. An empty-net goal in a one-sided game is what keeps bettors watching a game they’d otherwise show little interest in.
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Best Strategies for Betting on Both Lines
A good strategy for the money line bets on a nightly basis is to bet on two Underdogs. In one night, you can find two Underdogs with good odds and hope that one of the teams pulls an upset. Say you bet $100 on one game and $100 on another but in both games, you bet the Underdog at +110 odds. All you need is one team to win and it’s a profitable night. And if both teams happen to pull off upsets that night, that is all the better. It’s worth noting that upsets are common in the NHL, making this a worthwhile strategy to consider. Conversely, it’s worth betting on two heavy Favorites on nights when it;’s clear that two teams look poised to win by multiple goals. There are times in the season when Favorites steamroll opponents (after the trade deadline and near the end of the regular season are two examples) and finding two heavy Favorites and betting their puck lines can be worthwhile.
NHL Promos for Picks with Winners and Whiners
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