Kansas City Chiefs vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Super Bowl LV Preview
(The in-depth analysis, side, total, and predictions are HERE!)
It’s been a long and, at times, windy road but the NFL season has reached its penultimate game. The defending Super Bowl champions, the Kansas City Chiefs, are back to represent the AFC as they take on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Super Bowl LV on Sunday, February 7. Kansas City reached the Super Bowl for the second straight year as they beat Buffalo 38-24 at home in the AFC Championship Game on January 24. Tampa Bay won the NFC Championship Game 31-26 over Green Bay on the road on January 24. The Buccaneers lead the all-time regular-season series 7-6 but the Chiefs won 27-24 here in Tampa in the most recent meeting, which came on November 29, 2020. This marks the first postseason matchup between the teams.
Kansas City Chiefs Season Review
Kansas City barreled through the regular season in pursuit of becoming the first team since New England back in the 2003 and 2004 seasons to win back-to-back titles. The Chiefs finished the regular season with a 14-2 record, losing only at home to Oakland in week five and then a throwaway week 17 contest at home against the Chargers, when they rested most of their starters. Kansas City earned home-field advantage throughout the playoffs as they earned the top seed in the AFC. That gave them a bye on wild-card weekend and sent them straight to the divisional round. The Chiefs survived losing Patrick Mahomes to the concussion protocol as they held off the Browns 22-17 back on January 17. That pushed them to the AFC Championship against Buffalo.
Against the Bills, the Chiefs struggled early, falling behind 9-0 before getting their offense in gear. Once Kansas City started clicking, they were seemingly unstoppable as they gashed the Bills’ defense for big plays. The Chiefs scored 21 unanswered points in the second quarter to go up 21-9 and didn’t see Buffalo get any closer than nine the rest of the way. Kansas City rolled up a 439-363 edge in total offense, picked up 29 first downs while allowing 24 and held a 31:09 to 28:51 advantage in time of possession. Both teams turned the ball over once though the Chiefs’ miscue was part of their early deficit as Mecole Hardman muffed a punt that was recovered by Buffalo at the Kansas City three-yard line.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Season Review
Tampa Bay had a busy offseason as they brought in several new weapons on the offensive side of the ball. Tom Brady came in from New England to take over at quarterback. With him came tight end Rob Gronkowski, who came out of retirement. During the season, the Buccaneers also picked up wide receiver Antonio Brown, adding another pass-catching threat to their receiver group. Leonard Fournette and LeSean McCoy were brought into the running back mix and there was no shortage of weapons for Tampa Bay. The Buccaneers finished 11-5 in the regular season to finish second in the NFC South but a sweep at the hands of New Orleans left them as a wild card team, seeded fifth in the NFC. Tampa Bay beat fourth-seeded Washington 31-23 in the NFC Wild-Card Round before downing second-seeded New Orleans 30-20 in the NFC Divisional Playoff. That sent the Buccaneers to the frozen tundra of Lambeau Field for the NFC Championship Game.
Against the Packers, Tampa Bay got off to a hot start but they had to hang on late to punch their ticket back home for the Super Bowl. The Buccaneers led 14-10 in the final minute of the first half when they hit the first punch of a 1-2 combination that staggered the Packers. Tampa Bay converted a fourth down to move the chains and on the ensuing play, Brady hit Scotty Miller for a 39-yard touchdown with one second to play in the half. In the second half, Tampa Bay got Aaron Jones to cough the ball up and returned it to the Packers’ 8-yard line. On the next play, Brady hit Cameron Brate for a touchdown and a 28-10 lead. The Buccaneers didn’t let Green Bay closer than five the rest of the way despite Brady throwing three interceptions. After Green Bay climbed within five with under three minutes to play, the Buccaneers managed to run out the clock to secure the victory. Tampa Bay was outgained 381-351, gave up 23 first downs while picking up 19, lost the time of possession 34:37 to 25:23 and turned the ball over three times while forcing two takeaways.
Kansas City Offense vs. Tampa Bay Defense
Kansas City Run Offense
Kansas City wasn’t hellbent on the run game, preferring to do more damage through the air with their collection of weapons. Rookie first-round pick Clyde Edwards-Helaire led the team with 181 carries for 803 yards and four scores in the regular season. Patrick Mahomes ran 62 times for 308 yards and two scores while Le’Veon Bell (63 carries, 254 yards, two TD) and Darrel Williams (39 carries, 169 yards, TD) also factored in the mix. During the postseason, Williams has been the lead back with 26 carries for 130 yards plus a score. Edwards-Helaire returned to action against the Bills but was limited to only seven yards on six carries though he did find the end zone. Bell missed the game against Buffalo but expects to be back in action here. During the regular season, Kansas City averaged 112.4 yards per game on the ground. In their two playoff games, the team averages 118.5 yards per game running the ball.
KC
- 23rd in run play percentage (38.18 percent)
- 23rd in rushing attempts per game (25.1)
- 16th in rushing yards per game (112.4)
- 11th in yards per carry (4.5)
- Tied for 22nd in rushing TD (13)
- 31st in longest rush (32 yards)
Tampa Bay Run Defense
Moving the ball against the Buccaneers on the ground is a tough proposition. Tampa Bay has one of the best front seven groups in the league and they make gaining yardage via the run game an uphill climb. The Buccaneers allowed just four teams to run for at least 100 yards in the regular season with Minnesota recording the best game against the Bucs’ defense by running for 162 yards in a 12-point loss. Meanwhile, five teams failed to crack even the 50-yard plateau on the ground against Tampa Bay during the season. In the playoffs, the Buccaneers held Washington to 86 yards, New Orleans to 104 and Green Bay to only 67 yards last week. Linebackers Devin White (140 tackles, 18 tackles for loss, forced fumble, fumble recovery) and Lavonte David (117 tackles, 14 tackles for loss, three forced fumbles, two fumble recoveries) lead the way in the defense.
TB
- 1st in percentage of run plays against (34.56 percent)
- 1st in run plays per game against (22.2)
- 1st in rushing yards allowed per game (81.4)
- 1st in opposing yards per carry (3.7)
- 1st in rushing TD allowed (10)
- Tied for 20th in longest rush allowed (62 yards)
It’s nearly impossible to see the Chiefs running the ball against the Tampa Bay defense. Kansas City does their damage through the air while the Buccaneers dominated the league when it came to stopping the run this season. You have to give the advantage to Tampa Bay here as their front seven, not to mention Kansas City’s game plan, steers away from the Chiefs trying to run the ball.
Advantage: Tampa Bay
Kansas City Pass Offense
We know that the Chiefs can do a ton of damage through the air. Mahomes completed 390 of 588 passes for 4,740 yards with 38 touchdowns and six interceptions on the year. Chad Henne is the backup and he hit 28 of 38 passes for 248 yards plus two scores during the regular season. There is no shortage in targets in the passing game, led by Travis Kelce’s 105 receptions for 1,416 yards and 11 scores this season. Tyreek Hill (87 catches, 1276 yards, 15 TD), Mecole Hardman (41 grabs, 560 yards, four TD), Edwards-Helaire (36 receptions, 297 yards, TD), Sammy Watkins (37 catches, 421 yards, two TD) and Demarcus Robinson (45 grabs, 466 yards, three TD) all had at least 250 receiving yards on the year. In the postseason, Mahomes is 50 of 68 for 580 yards with four touchdowns and no interceptions while Henne hit six of eight for 66 yards plus an interception. Kelce leads the team in the postseason with 21 grabs for 227 yards plus three scores while Hill has 17 catches for 282 yards. No other player has more than six receptions though Watkins is expected to play after missing both playoff games to date.
KC
- 10th in pass play percentage (61.82 percent)
- 8th in completion percentage (67.4)
- 1st in passing yards per game (305.2)
- Tied for 3rd in TD passes (40)
- Tied for 2nd in INT thrown (seven)
- 2nd in net yards per pass attempt (7.8)
- Tied for 9th in longest pass play (75 yards)
- 4th in passer rating (107.3)
Tampa Bay Pass Defense
Tampa Bay’s strong suit is stopping the run but they can be exploited via the air, which could prove problematic here. The Buccaneers allowed four 300-yard games during the regular season but have allowed two such games in their three postseason contests. In their loss to Kansas City back in week 12, Mahomes went off for 462 yards and three scores against the Tampa Bay defense. The Buccaneers’ pass rush is led by Jason Pierre-Paul (55 tackles, 11.5 tackles for loss, four forced fumbles, two fumble recoveries, six pass defenses, two interceptions, who had 9.5 sacks. White added nine sacks while Shaquill Barrett (57 tackles, 12.5 tackles for loss, two forced fumbles) contributed eight and Ndamukong Suh (44 tackles, 10.5 tackles for loss, forced fumble) chipped in six. Carlton Davis (68 tackles, 3.5 tackles for loss) led the team with 18 pass defenses and four picks. He’s struggled in the postseason as he has been beaten for three touchdowns while opposing quarterbacks post a 140.5 passer rating targeting him. With Hill running on the outside, it’s going to be a long night if he gets beaten like a drum.
TB
- 32nd in pass play percentage faced (65.44 percent)
- 21st in passing yards per game allowed (249.4)
- 25th in completion percentage allowed (67.9)
- Tied for 20th in TD passes allowed (29)
- Tied for 7th in INT (15)
- Tied for 4th in sacks (48)
- 18th in passer rating allowed (94.3)
- 8th in net yards per pass attempt (6.4)
- Tied for 24th in longest pass play allowed (75 yards)
Tampa Bay has had their issues stopping the pass this season, as evidenced by Taylor Heinecke going for 306 yards for Washington in the wild card round. He was the last resort option at quarterback for the Football Team, thrust into action when Alex Smith was a late scratch. Tampa Bay was sliced and diced as Mahomes hit 74 percent of his throws for 462 yards in the first meeting back in November. While the Buccaneers may have improved defensively by making changes since that game in late November, the postseason numbers don’t scream success. Stopping Kelce and Hill, especially if Watkins returns, is a daunting task for any team.
Advantage: Kansas City
Tampa Bay Offense vs. Kansas City Defense
Tampa Bay Run Offense
Tampa Bay had a love/hate relationship with the run game during the season. While the Buccaneers ran for at least 100 yards seven times on the season, they also set an NFL record by running the ball all of five times for eight yards in the loss to New Orleans on Sunday Night Football back in week nine. Ronald Jones II led the team in the regular season with 192 carries for 978 yards and seven scores in the regular season. Leonard Fournette provided to be a solid second back with 97 carries for 367 yards and six scores. During the postseason, Fournette has taken over duties as the lead back, carrying the ball 48 times for 211 yards and two scores. Jones II has had just 23 carries for 78 yards in the playoffs. It would be no surprise if either guy was the feature back here in the Super Bowl.
TB
- 28th in run play percentage (37.49 percent)
- 28th in rushing attempts per game (24.1)
- 27th in rushing yards per game (98.1)
- 26th in yards per carry (4.1)
- Tied for 15th in rushing TD (16)
- 1st in longest rush (98 yards)
Kansas City Run Defense
Kansas City had their struggles stopping the run game of opposing teams this season, something that has carried over in the playoffs. The Chiefs gave up at least 100 yards nine times in the regular season and gave up at least 80 yards in five other contests. Kansas City gave up 112 yards to the Browns in the AFC Divisional Playoff and surrendered 129 yards to the Bills in the AFC Championship Game, though 88 of those yards came from quarterback Josh Allen. That’s one thing that the Chiefs won’t have to worry about as Brady isn’t going to beat anyone with his legs the way Allen or Baker Mayfield could. Safety Daniel Sorenson led the team with 91 tackles (68 solo) along with two tackles for loss and a pair of forced fumbles. Anthony Hitchens (78 tackles, 2.5 tackles for loss) and Damien Wilson (73 tackles, four tackles for loss, forced fumble) were next in line.
KC
- 13th in percentage of run plays against (41.06 percent)
- 13th in run plays per game against (26.3)
- 19th in rushing yards allowed per game (121.9)
- 24th in opposing yards per carry (4.6)
- Tied for 10th in rushing TD allowed (14)
- 22nd in longest rush allowed (65 yards)
This one is going to be interesting because the Chiefs were hurt last week by Allen’s scrambles. Game flow is going to dictate a lot of how things unfold in this department as if Kansas City builds a lead, it could force Tampa Bay out of the run game. We know that the Buccaneers can exploit the soft Chiefs’ front seven to try and control the line of scrimmage. Jones II and Fournette are capable of being a 1-2 punch that can wear down Kansas City’s defense and slow their pass rush. In the end, this one is pretty even and can be considered a wash when you get down to brass tacks.
Advantage: Push
Tampa Bay Pass Offense
Tampa Bay has been explosive through the air with a variety of different options doing damage in the aerial assault. Brady is the consummate signal-caller and this is his 10th Super Bowl appearance. In the regular season, he completed 401 of 610 passes for 4,633 yards with 40 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. Mike Evans led the team with 70 receptions for 1,006 yards and 13 scores on the year. Rob Gronkowski (45 catches, 623 yards, seven TD), Scottie Miller (33 receptions, 501 yards, three TD), Antonio Brown (45 grabs, 483 yards, four TD) and Chris Godwin (65 grabs, 840 yards, seven TD) are all valuable targets for Brady to look for in the passing game that had more than 400 receiving yards on the season. In the postseason, Brady has struggled a bit, completing 60 of 109 passes for 860 yards with seven touchdowns and three interceptions. Godwin is tied for the team lead with 14 catches for 223 yards plus a score. Fournette (14 grabs, 102 yards, TD), tight end Cameron Brate (11 receptions, 149 yards, TD) and Evans (10 catches, 173 yards, two TD) are making plays in the postseason. Brown missed the NFC Championship Game but expects to return for this contest.
TB
- 5th in pass play percentage (62.51 percent)
- 25th in completion percentage (64)
- 2nd in passing yards per game (287.1)
- 2nd in TD passes (42)
- 16th in INT thrown (12)
- 8th in net yards per pass attempt (7.4)
- Tied for 31st in longest pass play (50 yards)
- 9th in passer rating (102.8)
Kansas City Pass Defense
Kansas City gave up at least 300 yards through the air seven times during the regular season. Some of that can be attributed to the fact that the Chiefs usually held hefty leads, forcing opposing teams to go to the air with regularity. The Chiefs do have a solid pass rush, recording at least three sacks six times. They followed that up by sacking Josh Allen four times in the AFC Championship Game. In the regular season, Chris Jones (36 tackles, 4.5 tackles for loss, two forced fumbles, four pass defenses) led the team with 7.5 sacks while Frank Clark (29 tackles, eight tackles for loss, two pass defenses, fumble recovery) was next in line with six. Tyrann Mathieu (62 tackles, three tackles for loss) and Bashaud Breeland (38 tackles, 1.5 tackles for loss, forced fumble, fumble recovery) each had nine pass defenses in the regular season to tie for the team lead. Mathieu led the team with six picks, including a pick-six, while Sorenson (TD) and L’Jarius Sneed (41 tackles, two sacks, two tackles for loss, seven pass defenses) each had three.
KC
- 20th in pass play percentage against (58.94 percent)
- 13th in passing yards per game allowed (233.8)
- 4th in completion percentage allowed (62.3)
- Tied for 20th in TD passes allowed (29)
- Tied for 5th in INT (16)
- 19th in sacks (32)
- Tied for 18th in longest pass play allowed (72 yards)
- 10th in passer rating allowed (89.4)
- 10th in net yards per pass attempt (6.6)
Kansas City is going to have their work cut out for them here. The Chiefs allowed Brady to throw for 345 yards and three scores in the first meeting, though they did pick off a pair of passes. Kansas City played a lot of press coverage last week against Buffalo, which helped neutralize an explosive Bills’ passing attack. The Chiefs may have to lean on that here as the Buccaneers have a lot of weapons to work with themselves. This is going to be a test for the Kansas City pass rush as it can be a challenge getting to Brady, who gets rid of the ball quickly. When you get right down to it, this one ends up as a push all things considered.
Advantage: Push
Special Teams
Kansas City
Harrison Butker was 48 of 54 on extra-point tries and hit 25 of 27 field goals with a long of 58 in the regular season. During the postseason, he is six of seven on extra points and four of five on field goals with a long of 50. Tommy Townsend averaged 45 yards on his 52 punts with a 40.4-yard net average per kick. He had 20 punts inside the opponent's 20-yard line but also had six touchbacks. Townsend has punted just once in the postseason, booting one for 44 yards on a punt that was inside the 20-yard line. Byron Pringle averaged 32.4 yards on 10 kick returns with a 102-yard return for a score. Hardman averaged 20.4 yards on his nine kick returns and returned 25 punts for a seven-yard average with a long of 67 yards plus a score.
Tampa Bay
Ryan Succop connected on 52 of 57 extra-point attempts and 28 of 31 field-goal tries this season with a long of 50. In the playoffs, he has hit eight of nine extra points and all eight of his field-goal tries with a long of 46. Bradley Pinion averaged 45.2 yards (40.2-yard net average) on his 55 punts this season with a long of 62. He dropped 19 punts inside the opponents’ 20-yard line with two touchbacks. Punt coverage has been a bit spotty as they have allowed an average of 10.3 yards on 23 punt returns. In the playoffs, he has punted nine times, averaging 43.3 yards per kick (36.6-yard net average) with a long of 53. He’s dropped six punts inside the 20-yard line with no touchbacks. Tampa Bay’s special teams continue to sputter as they’ve allowed 20.3 yards per return on three runbacks. Jaydon Mickens has averaged 24.3 yards on 14 kick returns with a long of 34. He also has a 6.2-yard average on 16 punt returns with a long of 14 this season. Kenjon Barner averaged 23.9 yards on seven kick returns and 5.8 yards on 13 punt returns with a long of 21.
Both kickers have been solid this season and can be counted on to reliably make the majority of their kicks. Tampa Bay has had some issues when it comes to kick off coverage, which could prove problematic here. The Chiefs have a kick return and a punt return for a score on the season. They can catch a team off guard and be off and running at a moment’s notice. The Buccaneers are going to have to be more effective if they hope to win the field position game. At the end of the day, you have to lean slightly toward Kansas City here.
Advantage: Kansas City
We’ve brought you a look at the key matchups for the Super Bowl and given our thoughts as to who has the upper hand. Which team will hoist the Lombardi Trophy on February 7? For that, you’ll have to wait and read on with our upcoming previews. Stay tuned for more Super Bowl coverage.