UFC on ESPN+ 48 - Main Card Betting Guide - 6/26/21

Main Card

My picks in bold. All odds are mean odds taken from www.bestfightodds.com

Ciryl Gane (Opened at -135, currently at -156) vs.
Alexander Volkov (Opened at +115, currently at +129)

This should be a fun main event. Both guys have something a lot of heavyweights don’t have, cardio. Gane’s footwork and fight IQ has given everyone he’s fought huge problems. Volkov is tough as hell and is a solid striker in his own right. Odds are a bit wide here (Gane getting that undefeated prospect bump from the oddsmakers) but probably not wide enough to justify a value play really. I’m going to side with Gane just because he seems to have a few more ways to win. The Frenchman has shown he’s got a solid submission game, although Volkov is so good at getting back to his feet so it might not come into play. However, just the threat of the grappling will help make his footwork and striking that much more effective. Volkov has tightened up his striking defense significantly as of late but he won’t enjoy his usual reach advantage in this one. Picking Gane but passing on the bet.

Tanner Boser (Opened at -115, currently at -177) vs.
Ovince St. Preux ((Opened at -105, currently at +145)

Well I picked Boser to get past Latifi. He outstruck him and nearly finished him and then got held down for 5 minutes, losing the decision. It was a frustrating one to say the least. If you were going to bet this fight you’d pretty much have to go with OSP as Boser at -177 is one of the worst prices on the card. The Canadian will have a speed advantage but if he doesn’t get the finish, we could very much see a repeat of the Latifi fight. OSP has yet again changed divisions and weighed in at 230 for this one (to Boser's 240). At 38, it’s probably the smart move as he missed weight AND was TKO’d last time out at light heavy. This one could pan out a lot like a heavyweight version of OSP's Michał Oleksiejczuk fight - getting absolutely pieced up on the feet due to a horrendous speed disadvantage, only to come back with a grapple attack and lock up a submission later. I’m not willing to bank on that though,I’ll pick Boser but pass on the bet.

Raoni Barcelos (Opened at -150, currently at -225) vs.
Timur Valiev (Opened at +130, currently at +181)

Between the two of these guys, their records are a combined 33-3. The hyper aggressive Barcelos has defeated all UFC opponents so far . This one should be an awesome fight. I fully expect both guys to have their moments but with Barcelos most likely controlling the center of the cage full time and continuously pressing the action, he should get the nod. The calibre of Barcelos opponents has been quite a bit higher as well. Barcelos winning by decision at +140 is a prop I can get behind.

Andre Fili (Opened at -185, currently at -229) vs.
Daniel Pineda (Opened at +160, currently at +185)

I like Fili to get the win here. A long time UFC fighter and one of the better unranked featherweights out there. Pineda is a bit of a maniac though and has a crazy killer instinct. I’d say Fili’s edge in the technical aspects should help earn a wide decision here. He’s quite durable but will need to avoid starting slow against the fast starting Pineda. I’d say we will see Fili utilize his stance switches to frustrate Pineda throughout this one on route to a unanimous decision. Not the best price but tacking him on to our undercard lock makes it a little prettier.

Tim Means (Opened at -200, currently at -136) vs.
Nicolas Dalby (Opened at +170, currently at +112)

Most of the betting lines on this card have moved in directions we don’t want. As is the problem with recommending bets a day before the event when the markets have been available for a while. This line however moved to a more favorable way. Tim Means has a solid edge over Dalby in the striking. I think he should comfortably land more volume and the more telling blows. I won’t go crazy on it though as Dalby has shown to switch to a grapple-heavy approach and Means takedown defense is decent but not exceptional. Even still, Dalby gets rocked on the regular so give me the technician in "The Dirty Bird", Tim Means.

Renato Moicano (Opened at -190, currently at -244) vs.
Jai Herbert (Opened at +165, currently at +197)

This one is purely a value play as these odds are way too wide for a guy who has been finished 3 times in his last 4 fights and has been a career featherweight jumping to lightweight to fix his problems. He found out the hard way that that doesn’t always work (Fiziev brutally finished him last time out). Herbert may not be a world beater but he’s got enough pop in his strikes to put Moicano down if he connects. +200 moneyline or +350 by finish for Herbert are worth a flyer despite Moicano being the better mixed martial artist.

MONEYLINE & PROPS

Tim Means
Jai Herbert inside the distance
Raoni Barcelos by decision

PARLAY

Andre Fili & Shavkat Rakhmonov (-115) (Shavkat Rakhmonov is part of the preliminary card breakdown found here)