UFC on ESPN+ 48 - Undercard Betting Guide - 6/26/21
My picks in bold. All odds are mean odds taken from www.bestfightodds.com
Kennedy Nzechukwu (Opened at -115, currently at -129) vs.
Danilo Marques (Opened at -115, currently at +107)
Going to take Marques here. He’s going to be sticking to Nzechukwu and relentlessly grinding this fight to the mat. Not to mention Nzechukwu is going to plod forward making it even easier for Marques to rush the pocket. Nzechukwu does have some really good Travis Browne-styled elbows he delivers to people hanging out on a single-leg for too long so I’m not going to go crazy on this bet. Besides that, one of Nzechukwu’s go-to scramble methods is to give up his back which could be disastrous against a skilled jiu jitsu player like Marques. Nzechukwu has a ridiculous reach advantage but he spends a lot of time with his hands on top of his head in a high guard which telegraphs the strikes when he does throw. Some value on Marques to grind him out or get the submission for sure.
Shavkat Rakhmonov (Opened at -150, currently at -303) vs.
Michel Prazeres (Opened at +130, currently at +240)
Prazeres is 5’6 and fighting at 170 pounds. He is a compact ball of muscle but at that height he should have stuck to lightweight where he’d hold size advantages and could impose his jiu jitsu game. He got caught doping though so has been on the shelf for a couple years. He comes into this one at +240. Rakhmonov held his own in the clinch against Oliveira who’s a big welterweight so I’m thinking his takedown defense is at the very least, decent. Even if it’s not, he will hold crazy leverage over Prazeres in the form of half a foot of height and an unheard of 10” reach advantage. Another one where the line took off. If you got Rakhmonov anywhere between -150 and -200, nice job! Rest of us missed the boat. I'm still going to use it to pad my Fili play.
Warlley Alves (Opened at -205, currently at -234) vs.
Jeremiah Wells (Opened at +165, currently at +189)
Wells is a good pick up by the UFC but he has a very tough debut here. This one should be fun. I was able to get a decent amount of footage on Wells but he hasn’t fought in a couple years so most of what I saw was a bit older. Both of these guys are super athletic and hit hard. Think I’ll pass on betting it and just enjoy the fireworks.
Marcin Prachnio (Opened at -193, currently at -196) vs.
Isaac Villanueva (Opened at +168, currently at +162)
Prachnio showed significant improvement in his last fight against Rountree. He’s come a long way since getting KO’d by Sam Alvey. Ike Villanueva is the same fighter he’s been since day one. Both guys prefer to stand so the majority should play out on the feet (Prachnio did attempt a couple take downs to no success in his last fight though). No real value on Prachnio outright since he’s shown he can get drawn into a wild brawl but I’m leaning his way by decision. No bet.
Julia Avila (Opened at -400, currently at -355) vs.
Julija Stoliarenko (Opened at +300, currently at +274)
Avila has Stoliarenko badly outmatched. I know it, she knows it, her opponent knows it, and sadly the bookies know it. However, I couldn’t blame anyone for throwing some pizza money on Stoliarenko by submission (paying +650) as she has 9 armbar victories on her record. I’m going to pass on it but I’ll be shaking my head if Avila hangs out in Stoliarenko’s guard willingly at any point during this contest.
Charles Rosa (Opened at -170, currently at -173) vs.
Justin Jaynes (Opened at +145, currently at +143)
This is a throwaway pick based solely on gut so I’m definitely not advising betting it. Jaynes' back is against the wall with 3 losses in a row and will surely be cut if he loses another. Rosa is not the savvy striker Benitez is, nore the athletic beast Devonte Smith is, both of which handled Jaynes easily. Rosa has woeful striking defense, been dropped in a pile of fights, and Jaynes has power in his hands. With the near identical reach, I’ll roll the dice on Jaynes.
Yancy Medeiros (Opened at +108, currently at +123) vs.
Damir Hadžović (Opened at -128, currently at -149)
This fight was scheduled previously but didn't make it to the cage. Here was my write up on it previously and I feel it still applies. Actually, since Hadzovic was pulled for health issues last time, it gives a very small nudge toward Medeiros who I was leaning anyway:
Medeiros has been fighting in the UFC since 2013, taking on the majority of prospects and mid-ranked fighters in the welterweight and lightweight divisions. He had a great stretch where he finished Sean Spencer, Erick Silva, and Alex Oliveira. But then got TKO’d by Donald Cerrone and Gregor Gillespie (which was a drop to lightweight). He also had no answer for Lando Vannata’s footwork in his most recent bout which was also at lightweight.
Hadzovic has also struggled to gain traction, going 3-4 in the UFC. This sort of feels like a pink slip fight to me so I expect both guys to bring it. This one is very close to call. When Hadzovic gets hit he becomes more game as if it wakes him up. With Medeiros, we just don’t really know who’s going to show up at this point. But with Hadzovic being a more standard striker without much else to offer, it has to be a benefit to Medeiros (having seen this style dozens of times). I gotta think with his job on the line, his experience, competition faced, and 5” reach advantage that the Hawaiin gets it done.
MONEYLINE & PROPS
Andre Fili & Shavkat Rakhmonov (-115) (Andre Fili is part of the main card breakdown found here)