The eyes of the horse racing world turn to south Florida Saturday for the Florida Derby. It’s one of the final preps for the most famous horse race in America, and handicappers will certainly keep a watchful eye on it for Kentucky Derby betting purposes.
The Florida Derby produced last year’s Kentucky Derby winner. Mage finished second in his final prep before rallying to win the roses on the first Saturday in May. Does this year’s field boasts a similar star in the making? Let’s take a look.
2024 Florida Derby quick facts
- Date: Saturday, March 30
- Location: Gulfstream Park; Hallandale Beach, Fla.
- Distance: 1 1/8 miles
- Purse: $1 million
- Kentucky Derby points (to the top five finishers): 100-50-25-15-10
Can Fierceness bounce back?
The 8/5 morning line favorite is #10 Fierceness, and when he’s good, he’s very good. He smashed a field of the best 2-year-old males in training last November in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, and that was enough to earn him the division’s Eclipse Award.
The problem is, when Fierceness isn’t at his best, he’s pretty ordinary. He was seventh of eight in last year’s Champagne Stakes, and his 3-year-old debut in the Holy Bull saw him lose as a 1/5 favorite.
That day’s winner, #2 Hades, is back in this spot. He’s an undefeated 3-for-3 in his career and bypassed another prep race, the Fountain of Youth, to rest up for the Florida Derby. Hades is the 7/2 third choice on the morning line, and he’ll be ridden by Paco Lopez.
A new face seeks a “Conquest”
#9 Conquest Warrior, meanwhile, makes his stakes debut in the Florida Derby. A million-dollar purchase at auction back in 2022, Conquest Warrior has won two of his last three starts, including his last-out effort earlier this month. He’s trained by Hall of Famer Shug McGaughey, who won both the Florida Derby and Kentucky Derby with Orb back in 2013.
Those three horses figure to take most of the betting money. No other Florida Derby entrant is lower than 12-1 on the morning line.
Florida Derby selections
Of the three horses I mentioned, I most prefer Fierceness. The streakiness is a red flag, for sure, but his best effort crushes this group. He’s been training well since his dud in the Holy Bull, and I think he bounces back Saturday to win the Florida Derby.
I prefer Conquest Warrior to Hades. Hades had things all his own way in the Holy Bull, and between Fierceness probably being sharper and there being other early speed in the race, I don’t think lightning strikes twice.
However, Conquest Warrior isn’t my second selection. I’ll take a shot with #7 Catalytic at a bit of a price. He’s making his second start off a long break for a high-percentage trainer, and while he’s lightly-raced, he’s got a series of sharp workouts and a running style that says two turns shouldn’t be a problem. At his likely price, I think he’s a must-use in wagers like exactas and trifectas.
- 1st: Fierceness
- 2nd: Catalytic
- 3rd: Conquest Warrior
