There’s one more Kentucky Derby prep race on the schedule. The Lexington Stakes headlines Saturday’s program at Keeneland, and it includes at least one 3-year-old that could earn enough Kentucky Derby points to make that race’s field.
The Lexington has drawn a field of 10 runners, and potential Kentucky Derby betting enthusiasts would be wise to pay attention. Here’s a look at the race.
2024 Lexington Stakes Quick Facts
- Date: Saturday, April 13
- Location: Keeneland Race Course; Lexington, Ky.
- Distance: 1 1/6 miles
- Purse: $400,000
- Kentucky Derby points (to the top five finishers): 20-10-6-4-2
A “Win And You’re In” For Hades
#5 Hades emerged as a potential Kentucky Derby contender with a win in the Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream Park. In that victory, he defeated Fierceness, who had previously thrashed a top-notch group in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile.
Fierceness, however, got the better of Hades (and everyone else) in a smashing Florida Derby score that re-established him as the likely Kentucky Derby favorite. Hades, meanwhile, never looked comfortable when racing off the pace and finished fifth, 19 lengths behind the winner.
The Lexington Stakes comes just two weeks after the Florida Derby, and Hades adds blinkers and jockey Jose Ortiz for this event. He currently has 30 Kentucky Derby points. Barring any defections, 45 points is the current cut line. As such, a victory Saturday would punch Hades’s Kentucky Derby ticket. Anything else, and he’ll need some help between now and when that races entries are finalized.
Other Familiar Faces Show Up, Too
The 5/2 morning line favorite for the race is #2 The Wine Steward. He won his first three races last season before finishing a close-up second in the Breeders’ Futurity, Keeneland’s biggest race for 2-year-olds at its annual fall meet. He hasn’t raced since, but comes in off of a steady string of five-furlong workouts for high-percentage trainer Mike Maker.
Hades, meanwhile, is the 7/2 second choice, and a few others also figure to take money. #9 Liberal Arts also wheels back on short rest. The 4-1 third choice was a troubled-trip sixth in the Arkansas Derby and, with just 19 Derby points, needs both a win here and a few defections to make the Kentucky Derby field.
#8 Encino, meanwhile, sits at 5-1 after a win in last month’s Battaglia Memorial at Turfway Park. Among those he beat that day was Epic Ride, who came back to run third behind Sierra Leone and Just a Touch in last weekend’s Blue Grass Stakes. Encino is trained by Brad Cox, who saddled Mandaloun (the official winner of the controversial 2021 Kentucky Derby). With 20 Kentucky Derby points, he’s in a similar “win and get help” situation.
2024 Lexington Stakes Selections
In five Derby preps I’ve analyzed for Winners and Whiners so far, I’ve done pretty well. I’ve picked four winners, given out two cold exactas, and I’m hoping to make some more money here, because I’m against Hades (who I think will go off the favorite).
Hades had a picture-perfect trip in the Holy Bull, one that was always unlikely to replicate itself. His connections skipped the Fountain of Youth to train up to the Florida Derby, but that race was a nightmare. He may very well need another ideal trip to win this, and I don’t think he gets one.
I much prefer Encino, who has improved in every start to date and appears to be training well for one of the highest-percentage barns in the country. He has tactical speed, but showed in the Battaglia that he doesn’t need the lead in order to run well. I think he’ll sit a dream trip just off the pace and have first run turning for home into Keeneland’s short stretch.
The Wine Steward has plenty of talent and could win if he’s ready off of the long layoff. I’ll pick him second, followed by Liberal Arts. That one has every right to improve given his past form, but the short stretch could hurt this late-running son of Hall of Famer Arrogate.
- 1st: #8 Encino
- 2nd: #2 The Wine Steward
- 3rd: #9 Liberal Arts
