Free NCAAF Handicapping Plays - Sports Picks from Premium Cappers

This is a free play on LOU.

The Cardinals lost four games last year, two of those losses came in overtime and another came by a single point. The only game they lost by more than three points was on the road at SMU without their starting quarterback. Jeff Brohm will have a new quarterback in 2026, bringing in transfer Lincoln Kienholz from Ohio State. Given coach Brohm's history of developing quarterbacks, the expectation is that Kienholz will be successful. Ole Miss lost Lane Kiffin, but they bring back the best quarterback and running back duo in the country. The Rebels were 11-1 in the regular season last year, and five of their first six games versus FBS teams were decided by one score.

GL,

Jesse Schule

Take #204 Cal ML Over UCLA

We like Cal at home in this matchup. UCLA enters a new era under Bob Chesney after a disastrous 2025 season, but there’s plenty of optimism surrounding the Bruins. Chesney has eight conference championships on his résumé, including a Sun Belt title and College Football Playoff appearance with James Madison.

Nico Iamaleava gives UCLA plenty of upside at quarterback, and the Bruins have added JMU transfer running back Wayne Knight to take some pressure off him. UCLA also has depth at wide receiver and tight end, so this offense could take a major step forward.

But we’re giving Cal the nod because of Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele. The young quarterback returns after throwing for 3,454 yards and 18 touchdowns last season. He also posted the highest true-freshman PFF grade among quarterbacks, and with Jordan Somerville installing a pro-style offense, there's plenty of reason to expect another big season.

The concern is the nine interceptions Sagapolutele threw last year, so protecting the football will be critical. Still, with Ian Strong, Chase Hendricks, Dorian Thomas and Adam Mohammed surrounding him, Cal has enough playmakers to put pressure on UCLA's defense.

This is also the first game of Tosh Lupoi's head-coaching tenure, and getting the season started at home gives the Golden Bears an important environment advantage.

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Take #144 Wake Forest Over Akron

We’re rolling with Wake Forest here, and even with the uncertainty surrounding Akron quarterback Reese Poffenbarger, we think the Demon Deacons have too much on both sides of the football.

Poffenbarger is expected to start if he's cleared, but if he remains unavailable, redshirt sophomore Brayden Roggow would take over. Either way, Akron is facing a major step up in competition against an ACC opponent.

Wake Forest enters with plenty of continuity on defense, returning 61% of its production from a unit that ranked 44th nationally in scoring defense and among the ACC's top five. That's a big advantage against an Akron offense that could have trouble sustaining drives.

Offensively, Wake has a new quarterback in Gio Lopez, who transferred from North Carolina after throwing for 1,747 yards, 10 touchdowns and five interceptions last season. With another year of development and a Wake Forest team coming off a 9-4 season, expectations are much higher.

Jake Dickert has also talked about a completely different mentality around the program this season, with excitement replacing the nervousness that surrounded last year's team.

The Zips may have their starting quarterback, but we don't think that changes the overall matchup enough.

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Take #142 Rutgers Over UMass

We’re rolling with Rutgers in Thursday’s opener, and this has all the makings of a potential blowout.

UMass has struggled mightily since moving to the FBS, and last season the Minutemen’s offense was among the worst in the country. They failed to score more than 10 points in each of their first five FBS games and topped 14 points only twice all season. The defense was just as problematic.

Joe Harasymiak is a promising young coach and has brought in some intriguing talent, including William Watson III at quarterback and several transfer receivers. There’s certainly a foundation being built in Amherst, but this roster still has a long way to go.

Rutgers, meanwhile, has upgraded its offense with Boston College transfer Dylan Lonergan and returns a solid group of veteran receivers. The Scarlet Knights also addressed their defensive problems by bringing in a number of new pieces under defensive coordinator Travis Johansen.

The biggest concern for UMass is whether it can keep this competitive once Rutgers gets rolling. We simply don't see enough on either side of the ball to believe the Minutemen can stay within striking distance.

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This is a free play on Notre Dame Under 11.5 Regular Season Wins.

The Irish rank 4th in the AP Poll, and 1st in returning production. That doesn't mean they are going to go 12-0 in the regular season, and we saw Clemson in the exact spot last year, and they failed to live up to expectations. Marcus Freeman has a track record of losing games he should win, falling as a double digit favorite versus Northern Illinois in 2024 and Marshall in 2022. They are a 20+ point favorite versus Wisconsin in Week 1, and that game might be trickier than some think it will be. Miami, SMU and BYU are all capable of recording an upset.

GL,

Jesse Schule

Not known for a whole lot of flair during his head coaching stints at Wisconsin and Arkansas, Bret Bielema has done a much better job of keeping up with the times during this current run at Illinois. The Illini have gone 19-7 over the last two seasons with back-to-back bowl wins over SEC opponents. With East Carolina transfer Katin Houser now running the offense, Bielema may need to lean even more into being an offense-first football team during the first half of this season. Houser arrives in Champaign after throwing for 3,300 yards with a 65.9-percent completion percentage with the Pirates last season. Former QB Luke Altmyer gained Bielema's trust to expand the offense over the past two seasons, and that book may need to stay open because the Illini have some massive questions to answer on defense. Former defensive coordinator Aaron Henry left for Notre Dame and the Illini are only expected to return three starters on defense. Bielema attracted a top-25 class of incoming freshmen, but the transfer haul leaves a lot of questions. Safety James Finley IV arrives from Northern Illinois. Defensive linemen Darrell Prater and Isaiah Thomison arrive from Jacksonville State and Bowling Green respectively. Defensive backs Deuce Fillmore and Lavon Williams are from Georgia State and East Texas A&M respectively. Illinois opened the season against FCS-level Western Illinois last season with a closing total of 62.5. Thursday's game against UAB features a total that is a full touchdown lower than that, yet the Blazers have shown that they are capable of putting points on the board at this level. Alex Mortensen was given the full-time nod in Birmingham after Trent Dilfer's dismissal last year. Mortensen brings back redshirt junior quarterback Ryder Burton, and according to RotoWire, UAB has the sixth-oldest roster in the country with an average age of 20.8 years old. That crew will not be intimidated by a trip to a Big Ten venue to open the season. Even with the program in complete disarray last season, the Blazers still scored 24 points against Navy, 24 points against Tennessee, 31 points against Memphis, 24 points against North Texas and 18 points against South Florida. Anything in that general neighborhood will be enough to push this final score over the total.

This is a free play on COL Under 4.5 regular season wins.

The Buffs played Georgia Tech at home last year, and despite losing the turnover battle 3-0, Georgia Tech managed to win and cover. They lost quarterback Haynes King, and they replace him with Alberto Mendoza the younger brother of Fernando Mendoza. The Yellow Jackets still have a couple studs in the backfield, and they should be running downhill against Colorado, The Buffs have been trending in the wrong direction since Travis and Shedeur went to the NFL. They are projected to have one of the worst offensive lines in the BIG12 this season, and that's bad news for their inexperienced quarterback. Deion has been using smoke and mirrors to create buzz around a program that he might just abandon if he can join his son in the NFL.

GL,

Jesse Schule

Oklahoma enters the 2026 season with legitimate College Football Playoff expectations after winning 10 regular-season games last year, and this opener provides an ideal opportunity to make an immediate statement. The Sooners return quarterback John Mateer along with leading receiver Isaiah Sategna III, giving offensive coordinator Ben Arbuckle proven pieces in an offense that should be more comfortable in Year 2 of his system. Oklahoma improved from 86th to 19th nationally in offensive SP+ last season, and nearly the entire offensive line returns, providing continuity up front. The Sooners also added receiving talent through the portal, including Parker Livingstone and Trell Harris, giving Mateer even more weapons. Defensively, Brent Venables should once again field an imposing unit after Oklahoma finished fourth nationally in defensive SP+ last season, and the front seven looks particularly difficult for UTEP to handle. The Sooners return impact defenders such as David Stone, Jayden Jackson, Kip Lewis, Owen Heinecke, and Taylor Wein, and the trench matchup will be extremely one-sided from the outset.

UTEP enters the season with substantial personnel turnover, including many new starters, making this an incredibly difficult trip to Norman to start the 2026-27 season. The historical gap between these programs has been enormous: Oklahoma is 5-0 against UTEP, outscoring the Miners 248-41 in those meetings. Oklahoma has also won 20 consecutive home openers, and the unusual Friday-night atmosphere in Norman should provide another edge for a team that has won all six of its Friday-evening regular-season games. From a technical standpoint, large college football favorites are 20-0 SU and 17-3 ATS (85%) in season-openers versus FBS opponents, covering the spread by an average margin of 8.7 points per game since 2012. SEC teams are 67-17 SU and 50-31-3 ATS (61.7%) in season-openers versus non-conference opponents, while UTEP is 15-31 SU and 14-32 ATS (30.4%) versus non-conference foes since 2014, failing to cover the spread by an average of 3.8 points per game.

The Sooners have a massive step up in competition at Michigan the following week, so expect a focused performance designed to establish rhythm, build confidence and put UTEP away before turning their attention to Ann Arbor. Lay the points with the Oklahoma Sooners as Jeff Keim’s Free Pick Winner on Friday, September 4.

This is a free play on GT.

These teams played at Colorado last year, and despite losing the turnover battle 3-0, Georgia Tech managed to win and cover. They lost quarterback Haynes King, and they replace him with Alberto Mendoza the younger brother of Fernando Mendoza. The Yellow Jackets still have a couple studs in the backfield, and they should be running downhill against Colorado, The Buffs have been trending in the wrong direction since Travis and Shedeur went to the NFL. They are projected to have one of the worst offensive lines in the BIG12 this season, and that's bad news for their inexperienced quarterback.

GL,

Jesse Schule

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Rutgers has a substantial overall talent and depth advantage over Massachusetts entering the September 3 matchup. Starting quarterback Athan Kaliakmanis is the centerpiece of the Scarlet Knights’ offense after throwing for 2,826 yards and 18 touchdowns last season, giving the Scarlet Knights an experienced veteran at the most important position. Rutgers also has proven weapons in the passing game, including KJ Duff, who has emerged as one of the team's most productive receivers and provides Kaliakmanis with a reliable downfield target. The offensive line possesses significant size and experience, which should allow Rutgers to establish the line of scrimmage against a UMass defense facing another rebuilding season. That physical advantage should be particularly important on the ground, where Rutgers can control tempo, sustain drives, and wear down the Minutemen as the game progresses. UMass, meanwhile, enters 2026 with considerable uncertainty after another difficult season and substantial roster turnover. The Minutemen are rebuilding their offense around transfer personnel, creating questions about how quickly the passing game can develop chemistry early in the season. Massachusetts’ offensive line struggled to consistently protect the quarterback and generate push in the running game last year, which is problematic against a Rutgers defense that can create pressure and put UMass behind the chains. Rutgers also has a significant advantage in overall roster depth, which becomes increasingly important in the second half, when a Big Ten roster can begin to wear down a less talented opponent. The Scarlet Knights' special teams units have traditionally been an emphasis under Greg Schiano, providing another potential edge in field position and hidden yardage.

From a technical standpoint, college football home favorites with spreads greater than -30 are 62-0 SU and 40-20-2 ATS (66.7%) in season openers against FBS opponents, covering the spread by an average margin of 3.8 points per game. Since 1989, Big Ten Conference favorites of more than -20 have been 90-63-2 ATS (58.8%) against MAC opponents, including 28-17 ATS (62.2%) since 2016, covering the spread by an average of 5.0 points per game. Finally, FBS teams that lost their last six games the previous season are 71-99-4 ATS (41.8%) in season-openers. With the advantages at quarterback, in the trenches, overall depth, and special teams, lay the points with the Rutgers Scarlet Knights as Jeff Keim’s Free Pick Winner for Thursday, September 3.

This is a free play on Clemson.

I have pegged LSU as the most overrated team in the country heading into 2026. Before you call me crazy, go check who I picked as my most overrated team a year ago (Penn State). The splashy coaching hire, bringing Lane Kiffin over from Ole Miss in the middle of last year's Playoffs has fans expecting big things in 2026. Kiffin landed a $91 Million dollar contract and an unlimited bankroll to buy talent. Keep in mind that while Kiffin was successful at Ole Miss, he never had to navigate the kind of schedule LSU has this year. Dabo Swinney is a three time coach of the year, two time national champion and nine times conference champion. The Clemson stock is low right now after losing a ton of guys to the NFL draft. This line opened at double digits, but sharp money bought it down to single digits. If it goes back up to 10+ I will recommend a play on the dog.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a free play on CAL.

The Bruins made a splashy hire bringing in Bob Chesney as their new head coach. The last coach that left James Madison for the BIG10 ended up winning the National Championship in Year 2 at Indiana. Nobody should be expecting the same from Chesney. I like the hire, and I think the Bruins future looks bright, but Week 1 on the road against a team with a better quarterback and a defense that was far superior a year ago, I think the Bruins are the clear underdog.

GL,

Jesse Schule

With all due respect to Trent Dilfer, a change was desperately needed in Birmingham after a disastrous 9–21 tenure. Alex Mortensen was given the full-time nod after leading the final six games as the interim head coach, and we're looking for improvement from the Blazers in 2026. After spending nine years under Nick Saban at Alabama, Mortensen was held in high regard among a lot of coaching circles. In his first game with the headset after Dilfer's dismissal last year, Mortensen led the Blazers to a nationally-televised upset over then-No. 22 Memphis. Oddsmakers are only asking UAB to match last year's win total of four, and we believe that is a goal the Blazers can reach. Redshirt junior Ryder Burton is expected to get the nod at quarterback, and just like Mortensen, he made his debut against Memphis in the middle of last season. Burton went 20-of-27 for 251 yards and three touchdowns in his first start, showing that he was ready to lead the offense. Burton is already married, which is just one example of a very experienced roster that Mortensen is working with this year. According to RotoWire, UAB has the sixth-oldest roster in the country with an average age of 20.8 years old. UAB opens the season at Illinois, but then has extra time to prepare for win-able non-conference games against Louisiana and UL-Monroe. UAB plays FCS-level Samford after Navy, so that gives the Blazers a comfortable landing spot after a physical game against the Midshipmen. UAB will enjoy a bye at the end of October before finishing with a not-so-daunting closing stretch that includes Charlotte, Temple and a re-loading North Texas squad. UAB's program was in complete disarray last year, but the Blazers still won four games. We believe they can, at the least, match that total in 2026.

They can't set this line high enough. The Sooners are a legitimate top 20 team. Loaded with talent and experience, they're looking to improve on last season's 10 wins. That starts with a blowout of UTEP. Now in the Mountain West, the Miners are in a transitional/rebuilding year. The Sooners won the last two meetings by a combined score of 101-20, an average of 50.5 to 10. The Sooners had an 1168 to 483 edge in yards in those games. With Oklahoma scoring early and often, this has all the makings of another 40+ point blowout. *good up to -42