Bryan Power
Event: (201) Old Dominion at (202) South Florida
Sport/League: CFB
Date/Time: December 17, 2025 5:00 PM EST
Free College Football Pick Today: Old Dominion +3.5 (-110)
2% Old Dominion (5:00 ET): USF is a team I am most definitely looking to FADE this bowl season. This is a program in transition as it is going through a coaching change. Alex Golesh is off to Auburn. He’s being replaced by Brian Hartline, the offensive coordinator for Ohio State. New players and a whole new staff will be heading to Tampa. So the existing group is probably wondering about its future right now. On top of that, even the USF seniors can’t be too excited about this final game. This is a team that had College Football Playoff aspirations less than a month ago. Now, they find themselves playing in one of the very first bowls. It’s not even a destination for the players as the Cure Bowl takes place in Orlando. So I just don’t think we get a very solid effort out of the Bulls.
Keep in mind I felt this way before the key opt-out was announced Wednesday night. QB Byrum Brown won’t play and I’m pretty sure he won’t be the only USF player making that decision. Now I’m also aware that Old Dominion starting QB Colton Joseph has also opted out. But his likely replacement, Quinn Henicle, accounted for 349 total yards (including 200 rushing!) in his lone career start. The USF QB situation is a little murkier with either Locklan Hewlett or Gaston Moore likely to get the nod. Also keep in mind it remains to be seen who will be calling plays for the USF offense. The market initially moved towards ODU, even with the Joseph news. Then we saw a second move after Brown opted out. No surprise there.
Even without their starting QB, ODU should be quite motivated to win. It’s just the fourth ever bowl game for the program and they weren’t in one last season. While a 41-38 loss to Navy sank USF’s season (I had Navy +10.5), ODU closed the regular season strong with five straight wins. It wasn’t against the best of competition in the Sun Belt. However, worth noting that the Monarchs’ defense allowed a total of just 47 points in that five-game stretch, including only 26 in the last four. I’ll be adding to this analysis closer to kickoff, but wanted to make the play available now before the line moves any further. 2% Old Dominion (Play the ML if ODU ends up favored)
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