Will Rogers
Event: (593) Dallas Mavericks at (594) Golden State Warriors: Spread
Sport/League: NBA
Date/Time: December 25, 2025 5:10 PM EST
Free NBA Basketball Pick Today: Golden State Warriors -8.5 (+100)
Both teams shine brightest on their home court. With this Christmas Day game being played at Chase Center, the Warriors will hold a solid edge as hosts. The Mavericks are hovering around .500 at home but have struggled mightily on the road (with a poor away mark and a string of recent losses away from Dallas), while the Warriors boast a much stronger record in San Francisco compared to their road woes. This matchup feels lopsided right now, especially with Dallas hampered by a slew of key injuries—including major absences like Kyrie Irving (out with a knee issue) and others day-to-day or sidelined—leaving their lineup depleted.
Fresh off a thrilling home win over the Nuggets (somehow they have Denver's number), the Mavs are desperate to snap their ongoing road skid. But the Warriors? They're coming in motivated and angry after dropping their last Christmas Day game, riding high from a dominant 23-point blowout victory over the Orlando Magic in their most recent outing (120-97, powered by Stephen Curry's second-half explosion and Jimmy Butler's scoring punch). The Warriors won the fourth quarter 31-14! Expect Golden State to channel that energy into a commanding performance—they're poised to dominate and hand the shorthanded Mavericks a decisive Christmas Day defeat. Lay the points. As always, make sure to get the best number possible. As of post-time, there are plenty of -8's available. This is playable up to -10.
Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays from Will Rogers!
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Mike Lundin
Event: (593) Dallas Mavericks at (594) Golden State Warriors: Total
Sport/League: NBA
Date/Time: December 25, 2025 5:10 PM EST
Free NBA Basketball Pick Today: Total Under 227.5 (-105)
Mavericks vs Warriors NBA Free Pick
The Angle: This will be the first meeting of the season, but two matchups this calendar year both stayed under the total. Both teams come in energized off solid win(s), and I think we'll see good intensity on defense from both teams.
The Bet: UNDER (3%).
Why not make a merry Christmas even merrier by treating yourself to a subscription to Mike's premium picks. He was 13-8 (62%) with his premium picks L7 days coming into Christmas Eve, and with three premium picks (2 NBA, 1 NFL) going Christmas Day, sign up and you can count on a big gift from Santa.
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Ben Burns
Event: (587) Cleveland Cavaliers at (588) New York Knicks: Total
Sport/League: NBA
Date/Time: December 25, 2025 12:10 PM EST
Free NBA Basketball Pick Today: Total Under 239.5 (-105)
Totals have sure gotten high these days. While these offensives are both very capable, I expect this one to prove a little too high. When these teams met earlier in the season, the O/U line was only 229. The final score of 230 landed almost exactly on that number. That's three straight meetings between these teams, and nine of the past 10, which have produced 230 or fewer combined points. The Knicks managed only 104 points last game and have stayed below the 240 mark in four of their past five. Go with the under. *238 or higher
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