The Mad Russian Picks, Betting Predictions, and Capper Bio

Washington Commanders Over/Under 7.5 Regular Season Wins **THIS IS A 4% CLIENT RELEASE PLAY** 11-3 L-14 FREE PLAYS

4% Washington Commanders UNDER 7.5 Regular Season Wins (-115) **Line already moved from +105 to -115**

UPDATE 8/31 11:30 AM EST: Watch my YouTube Video for a full breakdown of this play:

UPDATE 8/9 12:30 PM EST: Washington just lost their top OL LT Tunsil for probably the season, this line could move a little, get it in!

Washington went 5-12 last year, and I’m not buying a three-win jump.

Jayden Daniels played only 7 games in 2025 and dealt with a knee sprain, hamstring injury and dislocated elbow. He also led all NFL quarterbacks with 8.3 rushing attempts per game. After 148 carries as a rookie, his style continues to expose him to significantly more contact than the average QB. Durability has to be priced into this number.

Washington also replaced both coordinators. David Blough takes over the offense and Daronte Jones takes over the defense, and both will be first-time NFL play callers.

They’ve added some names on defense, but per PFF, only 2 projected defensive starters carry grades over 70. This was a bad defense last year, and I’m not convinced the makeover fixes it overnight.

They also have only 8 true home games, with the Colts “home” game being played in London, and they open @ Philadelphia and @ Dallas.

Looking at the first 11 games, I project Washington to be favored in only 1 or 2 of them.

I don’t need Washington to be bad.

7-10 cashes this ticket.

Coming off 5 wins, with Daniels’ injury history and rushing workload, two first-time play callers, a questionable defense and this schedule, 7.5 is too high.

(477) Green Bay Packers at (478) Minnesota Vikings: Spread ***11-3 Last 14 FREE Plays***

4% Minnesota Vikings -1.5 (-105) Fight to find the best line, if you're getting -2 -110 or -105 bet Moneyline -120 instead

UPDATE 9/10 2:50 PM EST: Here is a video breakdown on youtube:

If you can see the link, in YouTube search: Wagertalk TV The Mad Russian

UPDATE 9/7 3:20 PM EST: I really like the matchup for Minnesota at home to open the season, and the biggest advantage for me is Brian Flores and this Vikings defense against Jordan Love.

Green Bay enters the season with major questions along the offensive line. PFF currently ranks the Packers' offensive line 28th out of 32 teams after they were already a bottom-10 pass-blocking unit last season. Green Bay lost Rasheed Walker and Elgton Jenkins during the offseason, and outside of right tackle Zach Bako-Bewele, the other four projected starters have combined for just one season with a PFF grade above 65.0.

That becomes even more concerning when you look at Jordan Love's numbers when he's pressured.

Among 41 qualifying quarterbacks last season, Love posted a 128.8 passer rating from a clean pocket, ranking #1 in the NFL. Under pressure, that number absolutely cratered to 46.7, ranking 39th out of 41. His completion percentage showed the same dramatic drop, going from 79.6% when kept clean to just 41.6% under pressure.

That is exactly where Brian Flores can create problems. His pressure packages and disguises force quarterbacks to process quickly, and Love simply wasn't the same quarterback when opponents were able to get him uncomfortable last season.

Green Bay also enters this game with major losses on the defensive side. Micah Parsons is unavailable to open the season and Rashan Gary is now in Dallas. Those two combined for 20 of Green Bay's 29 sacks last season, meaning the Packers enter Week 1 without players responsible for nearly 69% of their entire sack production from a year ago.

There is another significant issue for Green Bay offensively. Josh Jacobs is currently on the Commissioner's Exempt List and cannot practice or play while he remains there. Jacobs rushed for 929 yards and 13 touchdowns last season, and no other returning Packers running back rushed for more than 106 yards. Green Bay is currently preparing for Week 1 without its workhorse back.

I also like the coaching and home-field component here. Kevin O'Connell is 3-1 straight up at home against Green Bay since taking over in Minnesota.

We're laying less than a field goal at U.S. Bank Stadium in a divisional game where I believe Minnesota has the defensive and coaching matchup we want, while Green Bay comes into the opener with major questions in the trenches and missing several important pieces on both sides of the football.