SMU/Florida State Over 54.5 makes sense because both offenses are built to score and the matchup sets up for a faster, more explosive game than the number suggests. SMU averaged 416.9 yards and 32.2 points per game last season, with Kevin Jennings producing 3,641 passing yards and 26 touchdowns, and they return the same offensive structure that thrives in space and tempo. Florida State brings even more firepower, averaging 419 yards and 34 points per game last year, with a run game that ranked second nationally and an offense that was balanced and explosive in its Week 0 win over New Mexico State. Both defenses are solid, but neither is positioned to fully control the other’s strengths — SMU’s secondary allowed 283.2 passing yards per game last season, and Florida State’s defense, while strong, showed vulnerability in sustaining stops late in drives. With SMU’s passing efficiency, Florida State’s elite rushing attack, and both teams capable of creating chunk plays, this matchup has the ingredients for a game that pushes past 54.5.