Free Handicapping Plays - Sports Picks from Premium Cappers

Given that the pitching matchup is Jacob deGrom vs. Logan Gilbert, this low total seems justified.

But that is just on the surface.

A deeper look inside the numbers shows that deGrom is 3-7 with a 5.86 ERA when pitching on the road this season. He has a 5.40 ERA during his last 3 overall starts.

Gilbert has a 2.70 road ERA, but a 3.99 home ERA. Gilbert has been hit hard in his last four starts giving up 15 earned runs in 19 2/3 innings during this span for a 10.91 ERA.

Both relief staffs have slipped noticeably, too, ranking 23rd and 22nd in bullpen ERA.

THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL Headlines with a NEVER Field Totals System NINERS vs RAMS 

The Thursday comp play is on the over 62.5 points in the Florida A@M at Miami Florida game at 8 eastern. The Canes will likely get close to this one their own as Game 2 home favorites of 48 or more are 5-0 to the over since 2019 if they allowed less than 10 points in their last game and these teams average over 57 points. The Canes made quick work of Stanford and now welcome in a Florida A@M team that comes in off a win in their opener and they have a decent offense capable of getting 7-10 points here which would get this over. The last 11 meetings have been Miami Blowouts and the last 2 the Canes have put up 126 points. Look for this game to push over the total. GL Rob V-

Take #315 Missouri vs Kansas Over

I like the OVER in Friday night's Border War.

Both teams exploded offensively in their openers. Kansas put up 613 total yards and 51 points against Long Island, while Missouri scored 54 points against Arkansas-Pine Bluff. More importantly, both quarterbacks showed plenty of efficiency.

Missouri transfer Austin Simmons was outstanding in his debut, completing 17 of 19 passes for 252 yards and four touchdowns in the first half. Kansas quarterback Isaiah Marshall completed 14 of 19 for 73% with two touchdowns. I expect both quarterbacks to have opportunities to make plays again here.

The rivalry aspect also adds some intrigue. Missouri won last year's meeting 42-31 after Kansas blew an early 15-point lead, so there is plenty of history between these programs. Kansas is also getting some early market support, with the spread moving from Missouri -6.5 to -5.5, putting the Jayhawks in a more favorable home position.

The biggest question for the Over is whether Missouri's running game can improve, but I don't think it needs to dominate. If Simmons continues throwing the ball efficiently and Kansas plays aggressively at home, there should be plenty of scoring opportunities.

This has the ingredients of another shootout.

Check us out on Social Media:

YouTube: @TheSniperPicks

Instagram: @TheSniperPicks

TikTok: @TheSniperPicks

Facebook: @TheSniperPicks

Twitter (X): @TheSniperPicks

Take #403 Arkansas vs Utah Over

Utah looked absolutely explosive in its opener, cruising past Idaho 66-14 while piling up 633 total yards, including 364 on the ground and 269 through the air. The biggest takeaway was the depth. Ten different players carried the ball and eight caught a pass, giving Devon Dampier plenty of weapons to work with.

Arkansas presents a much tougher test, but the Razorbacks showed in Week 1 that they can control the clock. They held the ball for more than 41 minutes against North Alabama, and while the rushing attack struggled, KJ Jackson has enough talent at quarterback to make plays through the air.

The matchup I like is Arkansas taking some chances against Utah's defense. Chris Marshall is a legitimate receiving weapon, and I expect the Razorbacks to take several shots downfield rather than simply trying to grind this game out.

Utah should be able to move the football consistently, while Arkansas has enough offensive talent to contribute to the total. If both teams play aggressively, I think we get a much higher-scoring game than some may expect.

The only question is whether Arkansas can do enough offensively to keep the Over alive, but I believe Jackson and Marshall give them that opportunity.

Check us out on Social Media:

YouTube: @TheSniperPicks

Instagram: @TheSniperPicks

TikTok: @TheSniperPicks

Facebook: @TheSniperPicks

Twitter (X): @TheSniperPicks

Take #453 Niners Over Rams

The travel situation is a major part of this handicap. The 49ers have been in Melbourne for about a week, giving them time to adjust to the time change, while the Rams arrived much later. That gives San Francisco a potential conditioning and preparation advantage.

Nick Bosa is another huge factor. After working his way back from last year's ACL injury, Bosa is expected to play. The 49ers' defensive line has taken several injury hits, so getting their premier pass rusher back is especially important against Matthew Stafford and the Rams' offense.

The Rams have made some massive additions of their own, particularly Myles Garrett and Trent McDuffie, but Aaron Donald won't be traveling with the team and won't play in this opener. Garrett has also dealt with some knee swelling during the preseason.

Offensively, both teams have plenty of firepower. Puka Nacua had 15 receptions in two games against San Francisco last season, while the 49ers have added Mike Evans and brought Deebo Samuel back into the fold. Christian McCaffrey is also a major weapon in this matchup after catching eight passes in both meetings last season.

The biggest thing for me is that these teams have been extremely competitive against each other. Shanahan has the historical edge over McVay, and the Rams haven't consistently separated from San Francisco in this rivalry.

Check us out on Social Media:

YouTube: @TheSniperPicks

Instagram: @TheSniperPicks

TikTok: @TheSniperPicks

Facebook: @TheSniperPicks

Twitter (X): @TheSniperPicks

Adding breakdown Thursday...

Seagrave is on a strong 6-3 run with his posted Free Picks since August 27th!

Next Winner HERE:

Joe Burrow Passing Yards Over 267.5 (-111):

Joe Burrow enters the 2026 campaign as the odds-on favorite to lead the NFL in passing and he's projected to record the most pass attempts of any quarterback on the Week 1 slate. Burrow dealt with injuries last season, but he still managed to record 284+ passing yards in 3 of his last 5 games and he should get more pass protection with all five of his starting offensive linemen returning to action. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers allowed the 6th most passing yards last season (254.8/game) while also allowing the MOST yards after the catch. This game sets up as a shootout with the highest total on the board (50.5) and the game script should favor Burrow as the Bengals are -3.5-point home favorites. Bryce Young managed to throw for 266 yards against Tampa Bay in a critical game that decided the NFC South and I'm banking on "Joe Shiesty" beating that number.

*Playable at 270.5 or better

They’re getting a bit antsy in Cincinnati, where the Bengals haven’t made the playoffs since 2022 and a return to the Super Bowl for Joe Burrow, which once seemed inevitable after he reached the finale vs. the Rams in his second year in the league, is now starting to draw comparisons to Dan Marino, who never got back to the Super Bowl after also making it in his second year with the Dolphins. Of course, Burrow staying in one piece for an entire season would be a nice start after he’s missed large chunks in three of his six campaigns in the league, with last year’s eight games the fewest in his career. Indeed, Joe’s presence means almost everything to the Bengals, who were 1-8 without him a year ago, and why lingering questions along the OL, which has allowed Burrow to get sacked 213 times in his career (the fourth most in the league since 2020) and has the worst pass-block rate in the league across that span, remain an obvious red flag. For the moment, Burrow is upright, however, and Zac Taylor is looking forward to a rebuilt defensive line wreaking havoc with foes on the Bengals’ schedule now that wrecking machine DT Dexter Lawrence II has arrived from the Giants along with other disruptors on the defensive front. Yet keep in mind that Cincinnati has been a notorious slow starter in recent years, failing to cover in its last four openers. Injuries also figured in the Bucs' demise a year ago and failure to defend the NFC South crown they had won the previous four seasons, and Todd Bowles is crossing his fingers that some of the walking wounded from the summer like wideouts Emeka Egbuka and Jalen McMillan (the presence of both more important now that Mike Evans has moved to the 49ers) will be ready to go for the opener. The clever Baker Mayfield also looks a proper elixir to Cincinnati’s supposedly juiced-up pass rush, and Bowles’ own new adds in the defensive front seven could expose the main Bengals question mark--protecting Burrow. Moreover, any points from the oddsmakers are always worth considering with the low-variance Bucs, after their last six games a season ago were all decided by four points or fewer. Play Tampa Bay Bucs

Wisconsin +20.5 against Notre Dame was one of our favorite plays from last week, and if you would have showed us the box score for that game, we would probably be waiting for you in the cashier's line. Notre Dame only out-gained the Badgers by 66 yards and four first downs, but the Irish played mistake-free football and the Badgers did not. Wisconsin's two turnovers proved too much to overcome, and the Irish showed that teams will have to play a near-perfect game to beat Notre Dame in 2026. That's probably not something the Owls have up their sleeve, but similar to Wisconsin, Rice does possess the blueprint that could help the Owls stay within this lofty number. In the season-opening win over FCS-level Houston Christian, Rice threw a total of ten passes. The Owls ran for 465 yards while going 11-of-17 on third down. The strength of the Irish defense is in the secondary (DJ McKinney returned an interception for a touchdown last week against Wisconsin), but the Owls have very little interest in putting the ball in the air. Wisconsin had the formula to compete with Notre Dame (it was a 13-10 game at halftime), but the Badgers made the back-breaking mistakes in the second half. If Rice can play A LITTLE bit cleaner, the Owls can keep this clock running like a service academy contest.
Play Rice

Jets @ Titans — Week 1

The Saleh Storyline

Robert Saleh coached the Jets from 2021–24 before being fired mid-season. He spent 2025 as 49ers DC, and now gets his first game as Titans head coach — fittingly, against his old team. Aaron Glenn enters Year 2 in New York. Both coaches downplay the "revenge" angle, but the intrigue is real.

The Quarterbacks

Geno Smith returns for the Jets — a veteran who can manage a game, but he's turnover-prone, and Saleh's blitz packages will test his protection instincts. Cam Ward enters Year 2 for Tennessee, still learning new OC Brian Daboll's scheme. Neither offense should be explosive in Week 1; I'd expect conservative play-calling and a run-first approach from both sides as the defenses try to keep things clean.

Weapons

Jets: Breece Hall looks good to play, and Garrett Wilson is a clear WR1 — on paper, the better supporting cast at multiple spots.

Titans: Calvin Ridley, Wan'Dale Robinson, and rookie Carnell Tate (the No. 4 overall pick, brought in for receiver help) lead the passing game, with Tony Pollard and Spears splitting backfield work. Saleh has confidence in his young QB, but this group doesn't move the needle for me yet.

Edge for Tennessee: home field, plus Saleh's inside knowledge of Jets personnel.

The Trend

Teams that posted a turnover differential of -0.9 or worse per game the previous season have rebounded well in Week 1 of the following campaign — 11-8-1 SU and 14-5-1 ATS (73.6%) since 2013 when not facing a similarly bad team. That's +8.5 units, 44.7% ROI, Grade 68. (per Steve Makinen)

The Market

Jets have covered 8 of their last 10 vs. Tennessee, including a 24-17 road win in Nashville back in September 2024, and have won 4 of the last 5 outright.

Titans opened -3; the line has already drifted to -1.5 on Jets support.

The Play

Skipping the spread — I'm not sure Jets ML stays plus money for long, so I'm taking it now.

Take Jets +105.

Let's cash some tickets!

Oh Look .. A FREEmium College Football WINNER from the #1 CFB CAPPER on the site

Sean is #1 for 2026.. nothing new . Sean is the #1 CFB Combined the Last 3 YEARS finishing #1 in 2023 + 2024

More of the same on tap for 2026 . Build YOUR BANKROLL

16-7 69.7% already this college football season - make the SMART MONEY MOVE. Get on board today. Loaded card for Saturday.

4* Total Money UNDER UNLV/ North Texas

Grab the UNDER here in Denton. North Texas + UNLV won't get near this 60 mark. Look I had UNLV Week 1. Laid off them in Week 2 because of their offensive woes. They still won the game 21-6 at Hawaii. So. In Vegas. Out to Hawaii. Now in North Texas. That is some travel to start the year. Especially when you can't get your offense going. Completely fell apart vs Memphis. 248 total yards vs the Rainbows. I think North Texas can win this thing in ugly fashion. GO UNDER the total.

Take #476 Commanders vs Eagles Under

Both teams are entering the season with new offensive coordinators and new offensive systems, which is a big reason I expect this game to start slower than the market initially anticipated. Philadelphia is installing Sean Mannion’s motion-heavy, wide-zone offense with more under-center looks, play-action and timing throws, while Washington is also breaking in a new offensive coordinator.

That matters in Week 1. New terminology, timing and protection adjustments can lead to conservative play-calling early, particularly when facing quality defenses.

Philadelphia's Defense Is the Key

The Eagles still have the personnel to make life difficult for Jayden Daniels. Jalen Carter just received a massive extension, and Philadelphia's defensive front remains one of the strengths of this roster. The Eagles' depth chart also shows a strong defensive group anchored by Carter, Jordan Davis, Quinyon Mitchell and Riq Woolen.

Washington's offensive line is also a concern. The Commanders enter the matchup without starting left tackle Laremy Tunsil, while the Eagles should have an opportunity to pressure Daniels and make Washington work for every possession.

Washington's Defense Could Be Much Better This is the other side of the handicap.

Washington invested heavily in its defense, added first-round pick Sonny Styles at No. 7 overall, and is introducing Daronte Jones' new defensive system. The unit is expected to be more aggressive and disguise coverages, even though there are obviously questions about how quickly everything comes together.

And Philadelphia has its own offensive adjustment period. Hurts is working with his fifth offensive coordinator in five seasons, and the Eagles are replacing A.J. Brown while asking Dontayvion Wicks to take on a much larger role. That's a lot of moving parts for an offense being asked to operate differently.

The Line Movement Is Interesting. The total opened at 47.5 and has dropped to 44.5. That's meaningful market movement toward the defensive side.

Check us out on Social Media:

YouTube: @TheSniperPicks

Instagram: @TheSniperPicks

TikTok: @TheSniperPicks

Facebook: @TheSniperPicks

Twitter (X): @TheSniperPicks

Take San Francisco (#453)

When we talk about NFL games played thousands of miles from home, we can expect some randomness.  When two division rivals with Super Bowl upside battle in Week 1, we can expect maximum intensity.  Put those two factors together and I’m not interested in laying points with the favorite; not even maybe.  For the LA Rams to be priced this high — as more than a field goal favorite against a playoff caliber foe on a neutral field — it tells us already that the betting markets are simply too high on Sean McVay’s squad to open the season.  This has all the makings of a ‘somebody is going to win this game bon a late score’ type of battle.  Catching more than three points with the underdog makes perfect sense to this bettor!  Take the 49ers.

Tulane should be able to beat South Alabama by double-digits. The Green Wave should be one of the better teams in the AAC while the Jaguars are likely to be in the bottom half of the Sun Belt. The Jags may have won big against Southeastern Louisiana but they're still a bad team on both sides of the ball. Tulane has won three straight in the series. Last year's game at South Alabama was close but the last meeting here at Tulane was not. The Green Wave won by 20. Look for the Green Wave to pull away for another decisive victory. *good at -10 or better

WEEKEND WARRIOR: ALL FOOTBALL, JUST $49!
Get every Saturday College Football and Sunday NFL play—including every 5% max release—for just $49 (regularly $78)!

The case for New York starts with the fact that the Jets may be considerably better than their ugly 3-14 record from 2025 suggests, while Tennessee still has major structural problems to solve around Cam Ward. New York finished last season with an NFL-worst -203 point differential, but its defense experienced an almost unprecedented lack of turnover production, forcing just four takeaways and becoming the only NFL defense in modern history to go an entire season without an interception. That type of extreme turnover drought is highly unlikely to repeat, and the Jets aggressively addressed the problem by adding All-Pro safety Minkah Fitzpatrick, veteran linebacker Demario Davis, defensive tackles David Onyemata and T’Vondre Sweat, plus No. 2 overall pick David Bailey, who recorded 14.5 sacks in his final college season. Bailey is especially important because New York finished 31st in sacks last season, and his explosive first step gives Aaron Glenn the type of edge presence his defense lacked. The offense should also have a much higher floor with Geno Smith replacing the failed Justin Fields experiment and veteran coordinator Frank Reich taking over the play-calling. Smith does not need to be a star in this matchup; he simply needs to distribute the football efficiently to Breece Hall, Garrett Wilson, first-round tight end Kenyon Sadiq, and rookie receiver Omar Cooper Jr. without putting the defense in bad positions. Smith as a stabilizing bridge and Reich as a steadier offensive hand, which is important after New York ranked 31st in EPA per pass last season. The Jets also strengthened an offensive line that PFF ranks substantially ahead of Tennessee's entering 2026, giving Smith a better chance to operate comfortably and allowing New York to lean on Hall and Braelon Allen against a Titans defense still undergoing a major transition.

Tennessee, meanwhile, was not merely unlucky in 2025—it was consistently overwhelmed, particularly early in games. The Titans posted an average scoring margin of -11.4 points per game, ranked 29th in first-half point differential at -106, and were -179 through three quarters, 30th in the NFL. Those numbers are particularly concerning against a Jets team that should be able to generate pressure and play from more favorable down-and-distance situations than it did last year. Ward finished his rookie season 31st in passer rating, 31st in completion percentage, 33rd in yards per attempt, and was sacked a league-high 55 times; the underlying problems included inaccurate throws, sacks, fumbles, drifting in the pocket, and a tendency to resort to hero ball when protection broke down. Tennessee attempted to protect Ward last year by investing heavily in the offensive line, but the unit still surrendered 56 sacks, the sixth-most in the league, and enters 2026 ranked near the bottom of PFF's offensive-line rankings. Brian Daboll should eventually improve the structure around Ward, and Robert Saleh should make the defense more respectable, but expecting all of those changes to immediately erase a massive talent and execution deficit is asking a lot. Tennessee was also one of the league's most undisciplined teams, accumulating 130 accepted penalties, ranking second in penalty frequency and posting the NFL's third-worst penalty margin, another major concern for a young team trying to operate efficiently. New York, by contrast, spent the offseason adding veteran stability, improving the offensive line, upgrading its pass rush and attacking the exact turnover weakness that made its 2025 defense look worse than it probably was. The Jets do not need Geno Smith to carry them here; a controlled offense built around Hall, complemented by a rejuvenated defense capable of pressuring Ward, provides a very favorable matchup against a Tennessee team that still has substantial weaknesses up front.

With New York possessing the stronger offensive line, a deeper collection of proven skill talent, significant defensive regression potential, and a favorable matchup against a quarterback who struggled badly under pressure, grab the point(s) with the Jets as Jeff Keim's Free Pick Winner for Sunday, September 13.

Emotions and intensity will be high in Chestnut Hill on Friday night as Boston College welcomes Rutgers for the annual Red Bandana Game, which happens to fall on the 25th anniversary of September 11. Neither the Scarlet Knights nor Eagles got off to a desirable start this season. Rutgers was soundly beaten 37-21 as a 30-point home favorite and had to pay UMass a reported $1.55 million in the process. Boston College lost 34-15 at Cincinnati against a Bearcats team that was replacing a lot of production lost from last season. We're struggling to justify a total in the mid-50s with two quarterbacks that left a lot to be desired in their Week 1 performances. Boston College should have a pretty good idea how to defend Rutgers' starter Dylan Lonergan after he played for the Eagles last season. Lonergan finished with three interceptions last week against UMass and Rutgers generated 1.2 yards per rushing attempt against a Minutemen team that hadn't won a game in nearly two years. Things didn't go much better for first-year Boston College QB Mason McKenzie in his debut against Cincinnati. The D-II transfer finished 18-of-35 for 224 yards with one touchdown, four sacks and an interception against a Bearcats defense that figures to be a middle-of-the-road outfit this season. We’re willing to give the Rutgers’ defense a SMALL pass for last week’s performance against UMass, simply because the Knights didn’t know what to expect from a Minutemen offense that was essentially a mystery heading into the season. With an emotional atmosphere expected, both defenses should be flying to the ball. After the performance of both quarterbacks in Week 1, we expect both coaching staffs to keep things relatively simple in the passing game as to limit the number of mistakes that each signal caller can make in this contest.

Independiente del Valle vs Flamengo
Copa Libertadores, Wednesday, 8:30pm ET

Play: Independiente del Valle 0.0
Odds at Time of Release: -105 Bovada
Line Parameter: Line good to -125

Independiente del Valle will look to make use of the home advantage in the altitude of Quito (9,350ft) when they will host Flamengo in the first leg of the Copa Libertadores quarter-finals. It's hard to go against Flamengo in any situation, but the home side are not to be taken lightly.

Independiente del Valle are in tremendous form right now (W17 D1 L1), with a W16 D2 L2 record at home in 2026, and a W4 D0 L0 record in the Copa Libertadores. Doing extremely well in their domestic league too, where they are already 22 points ahead in the title run, with the playoffs right around the corner. Their priority right now is this match, and they know that the second leg in Brazil is going to be hella difficult, so they must take an advantage now.

They are W2 D1 L0 in 3 H2Hs as hosts against Flamengo, with Flamengo also being in good form right now with just 1 loss in L/17 matches in all competitions (W12 D4 L1). However, they won just 2 of L/5 on the road (W2 D2 L1) and just 4 of L/9 (W4 D3 L2).

They are locked in a title battle with Palmeiras in their domestic league, so they can't really overlook that, with a tricky match against Corinthians waiting for them in the weekend. They will surely want to take a manageable result back to Brazil for the second leg of this tie, but matches at such an altitude (especially against good teams) are NEVER easy.

Historically, Independiente del Valle have lost just 3 of 15 home matches against Brazilian teams (W8 D4 L3) and Flamengo have won just 5 of 13 away matches in Ecuador (W5 D2 L6) and none in this venue.

This is a 3* Play on Independiente del Valle +0.0 (-105 Bovada), line good to -125

Take Houston (#464)

While the recreational bettors fall in love with their favorite quarterback when it comes to betting Week 1 of the NFL, experienced pros know that getting stops – the better defense – is every bit as important as having an elite QB.  The Texans defense is better than the Bills defense on all three levels; one of many ‘depth concerns’ issues that Buffalo has after signing Josh Allen to his fat long term contract.  I trust Houston to get a key fourth quarter stop far more than Buffalo -- so crucial in this pointspread range -- just like they did last year when they held Matthew Stafford and the Rams to 14 points in Week 1.  This time around, however, I expect the Texans revamped offensive line to hold up; a game I expect them to win.  That said, I’d rather take the point and a half here ‘just in case’ of a tight finish -- the moneyline payout simply isn’t worth it.  Take the Texans

Washington Commanders Over/Under 7.5 Regular Season Wins **THIS IS A 4% CLIENT RELEASE PLAY** 11-3 L-14 FREE PLAYS

4% Washington Commanders UNDER 7.5 Regular Season Wins (-115) **Line already moved from +105 to -115**

UPDATE 8/31 11:30 AM EST: Watch my YouTube Video for a full breakdown of this play:

UPDATE 8/9 12:30 PM EST: Washington just lost their top OL LT Tunsil for probably the season, this line could move a little, get it in!

Washington went 5-12 last year, and I’m not buying a three-win jump.

Jayden Daniels played only 7 games in 2025 and dealt with a knee sprain, hamstring injury and dislocated elbow. He also led all NFL quarterbacks with 8.3 rushing attempts per game. After 148 carries as a rookie, his style continues to expose him to significantly more contact than the average QB. Durability has to be priced into this number.

Washington also replaced both coordinators. David Blough takes over the offense and Daronte Jones takes over the defense, and both will be first-time NFL play callers.

They’ve added some names on defense, but per PFF, only 2 projected defensive starters carry grades over 70. This was a bad defense last year, and I’m not convinced the makeover fixes it overnight.

They also have only 8 true home games, with the Colts “home” game being played in London, and they open @ Philadelphia and @ Dallas.

Looking at the first 11 games, I project Washington to be favored in only 1 or 2 of them.

I don’t need Washington to be bad.

7-10 cashes this ticket.

Coming off 5 wins, with Daniels’ injury history and rushing workload, two first-time play callers, a questionable defense and this schedule, 7.5 is too high.

David Montgomery OVER 7.5 Rushing Touchdowns (+116):

The Houston Texans traded an offensive lineman and two draft picks for David Montgomery and followed that up by upgrading his contract. Montgomery has cleared this line in each of his last three seasons (8, 12 & 13) while playing with the Detroit Lions despite splitting carries with the highest paid running back in the league in Jahmyr Gibbs. Joe Mixon is out of the picture, and he handled 89% of the RB carries in 9/14 starts last season including two games with 100% of the workload. Woody Marks is the only man standing in the way and he wasn't overly impressive in his rookie campaign. The Texans are favored to win the AFC South, and they have an elite defense that will lead to favorable game scripts where Monty will see carries while protecting the lead.

*Playable at -105 or better

Over the last ten seasons, the Jets have averaged 4.9 wins per year and they have only gone over this 5.5 win total three times. You can point to injuries and in-season trades as a big reason why last season was a failure, but we now have a ten-year sample size of this being one of the worst organizations in the NFL. Geno Smith was brought back to the franchise after a disastrous run in Las Vegas with the Raiders, but we're struggling to see the upside. The Athletic just released a comprehensive QB ranking that was voted on by coaches and front office personnel. Smith was voted as the 30th-best quarterback heading into the 2026 season. One defensive coordinator was quoted as saying, "He looked terrible on the film we saw." Another defensive coach put more blame on the Raiders' system around him, saying "Once you get hit and keep getting hit and hit and hit, how good are you going to be? They had no identity on offense. Geno got a bad rap. He was getting murdered out there." That's fair, but why is there any reason to believe things are going to be any better with this team? Head coach Aaron Glenn was retained, but nearly every assistant coaching position was flipped after last year’s 3-14 campaign. Frank Reich has been brought in to lead the offense, but Reich hasn't coached in the NFL since 2023 when he went 1-10 with the Carolina Panthers. Bill Musgrave was hired as the quarterbacks coach. Musgrave was the Browns' QB coach last season and Cleveland had arguably the worst offense in the NFL. We're really struggling to see how the Jets are going to double their win total from three to six this season. It's not like this team was knocking on the doorstep and suffered a couple heartbreaking losses along the way. They finished with a -203 point differential, allowed the second-most points in the league and suffered eight double-digit losses. When the NFL schedule was released, DraftKings released opening point spreads on every game for every team for the upcoming season. The Jets are not projected to be favored by more than a field goal in any game this season, and only five games have a point spread between -2.5 and +2.5. So in order to eclipse this win total, the Jets would have to go 5-0 in those toss-up games (vs Cleveland, Las Vegas, Arizona and Miami x2) and still would need to pull another upset along the way. We don't see that happening.

Rob Finished #1 last season in CFB and is the ONLY 2 Time Overall Football Champ on the Network

The 2026 NY. Jets Team Preview and Totals Wins Prediction

The 2026 Jets are now in their second season under Coach Aaron Glenn and after a dismal 3-14 record. The Jets made several upgrades on both sides of the ball. Most Notably, they bring back aging former Jet Quarterback Geno Smith. While he is not the ideal guy for this team which is on the younger side, Geno can Sling it and while he may wind up throwing as many picks as Touchdowns the Jets should find the end zone more often and move the ball. They have an Improving offensive line and are bringing back starting Running back Breece Hall and star Wide out Garrett Wilson who appears healthy after an injury that saw him miss most of the season last year. The Jets also drafted the ultra athletic Tight end Kenyon Sadiq who can lineup in the slot and get down field and give the Jets a whole different look. Sadiq should be ready for opening day despite an early injury They also drafted a solid Wide out in Omar Cooper who will be a big threat both deep and on the tertiary routes. On Defense the Jets added perhaps the best player in the draft in David Bailey who is a solid edge rusher and has a high motor. He should make an immediate impact along with a solid free agent signing in Tvondre Sweat who will stabilize the defensive line. The Jets brough back Demario Davis as well as Star Safety Minkah Fitzpatrick and Jarvis Brownlee the the defensive backfield. This defense should be much better than expected and with the Jets having a decent offense they should not be out on the field all day like years past. The Jets will likely go Over the 5.5 win total this year as they have made several changes and should benefit from playing the 5th easiest schedule this year. Last season they were last in creating turnovers and with the defensive upgrades this season they will be far better off this season. Finally, The Patriots will likely regress a bit off the big bounce back season and Miami is not expected to be very good this year, so the Jets may get some rare divisional wins, even at 2-4 in divisional play they could get 6+ wins. While we wont go as far as a Playoff spot the Jets could get 7+ wins this season. Gl this season Rob Vinciletti

The Browns have beaten Jacksonville three straight times. However, their last meeting was in 2024. Jacksonville was the much better team last season and is expected to be again this year. The Jaguars were 13-4 last regular season and 12-4-1 against the spread. (Remember, they were just 4-13 in 2024.) The Browns were 5-12 on the season, 8-9 ATS. The Jags were 10-2 against AFC teams. The Browns were 2-10. This year, the Jags are projected to win 8.5 to 9.5 games while the Browns are expected to win 5.5 to 6.5. The Jags have the majority of their offensive starters back. The Jags also had the best run defense in the NFL last season, allowing an average of only 85.2 rushing yards per game. They were the only team in the league to hold opponents under 90 yards on the ground. The Browns have a new coach and numerous question marks. They may improve this year but it's unlikely to happen immediately. I've got the Jags winning by double-digits.