Free Handicapping Plays - Sports Picks from Premium Cappers

Basic stats ahead of tonight's game: The Oilers (14-3-3) are averaging 4.00 goals per game (3rd in the NHL) & allow 2.80 goals per game (7th in the NHL). The Maple Leafs (8-11-2) average 3.29 goals per game (13th in the NHL) & allow 3.52 goals per game (26th in the NHL).

Pick: This is a high total, but the Maple Leafs have allowed 16 goals in their last three games, and with both teams playing great offense, this game looks to be high-scoring from the opening puck drop.

Take Detroit (#262)

The 'Daily Double' video below offers my 'Free Play' opinions for Lions - Patriots from Germany and Cowboys - 49ers from Dallas. Here's a brief write-up for the early start game in Munich.

The Patriots injury report is ugly, a 'bet-against' team for this bettor in this pointspread range until proven otherwise. Don't underestimate the 'cluster' injuries for Mike Vrabel's squad. They could be missing five of their top weapons on offense (Rhamondre Stevenson, TreVeyon Henderson, AJ Brown, Romeo Doubs and Hunter Henry all questionable or out). The Pats also have cluster injuries in their secondary and on their offensive line; bad news against the Lions explosive passing game and strong pass rush. If I'm playing, I'm laying! Take the Lions.

Take Indiana (#558)

The "Daily Double' Free Play video below offers my picks and analysis for Friday Night NBA: Knicks vs Pacers and Magic vs Bucks. Here's a brief write-up for New York vs Indiana.

I'm seeing a 'buy' sign on the Pacers RIGHT NOW, a team that has rebounded from a dismal start and another injury to star point guard Tyrese Halliburton to cover the spread four times in their last five ballgames. They've matched up well with the Knicks in recent seasons, and while New York is coming into tonight off a bad home loss to the Cavs -- an 'urgency' spot for the road favorite -- it's surely worth noting that Mike Brown's squad has a grand total of ONE pointspread cover on the highway this season. Too many points! Take the Pacers

Tulane travels to Rice on Saturday in a matchup featuring two struggling American Conference offenses, and the underlying efficiency metrics strongly support a lower-scoring contest. While both defenses have been vulnerable, neither offense has demonstrated the passing efficiency or finishing ability I want when backing a total at the existing number. The strongest Under argument begins with Tulane, whose offense ranks near the bottom of the country in several important efficiency categories. The Green Wave average only 21.1 points and 332.4 yards per game, including 193.2 passing yards. They complete just 58.1% of their passes at 6.7 yards per attempt and have thrown only seven touchdown passes through nine games. Tulane also ranks 134th nationally in offensive success rate at 35.9% and 122nd in points per scoring opportunity at 2.98. Those numbers reflect an offense that struggles not only to sustain possessions, but also to turn favorable field position into touchdowns. The protection issues make that inefficiency even more concerning as the Green Wave have allowed 24 sacks, and Trace Johnson enters with 818 passing yards, two touchdowns and five interceptions. Tulane is coming off a 60-10 loss to Tulsa, and expecting an immediate offensive rebound requires substantial improvement from a passing game that has struggled throughout the season.

Rice’s offense provides a different but equally compelling path to the Under. The Owls run the football on approximately 75% of their snaps, compared with only about 25% passing. That extreme run-heavy profile naturally keeps the clock moving and limits possession volume. Rice has generated significant rushing production, but its passing game offers very little ability to quickly create points or recover from negative game scripts. The Owls complete only 49.5% of their passes, and Jacob Brown has thrown for only 478 yards through nine games. Rice also ranks near the bottom nationally in passing success rate and passing efficiency. That lack of balance matters because Tulane can devote additional defensive resources to slowing the option without facing the same downfield punishment that a more balanced offense could provide. Rice’s problems on third down further reduce its scoring ceiling as the Owls convert only 25.8% of their third downs, creating the type of game Under bettors want: extended stretches of running clock followed by stalled possessions and punts.

The obvious concern is defensive form. Rice has allowed 52, 51, and 38 points in its past three games, while Tulane was just beaten 60-10. Those results make the Under uncomfortable, but they are also likely influencing perception of this matchup. Rice’s recent defensive opponents have repeatedly forced the Owls into higher-scoring environments, whereas Tulane arrives with one of the least efficient offenses on Rice’s schedule. The key distinction is that poor defense does not automatically produce a shootout when the opposing offenses lack efficiency. Tulane averages just 5.2 yards per play, while Rice averages 5.6. Their respective scoring rates are almost identical at approximately 0.33 and 0.32 points per play. The overall game script should also be favorable. Rice wants to run the football and consume clock, while Tulane has shown little ability to generate explosive passing production.

My technical database provides further support for the Under:

• Play UNDER: Road teams coming off a game in which they allowed at least 56 points have produced a 243-165 UNDER record (59.6%) since 1989, generating +61.5 units and a +13.7% ROI;

• Play UNDER: Teams that allowed at least 50 points in their previous game, facing an opponent that scored 10 or fewer points in its previous game, have produced a 155-103 UNDER record (60.1%) since 1989, generating +41.7 units and a +14.7% ROI. This system applies when evaluated from Rice's perspective following its 52-point defensive performance against North Texas and Tulane's 10-point offensive output against Tulsa.

• Play UNDER: Teams facing opponents that have allowed at least 50 points in each of their previous two games have produced a 47-29 UNDER record (61.8%) since 2018, generating +15.1 units and an +18.1% ROI;

• Play UNDER: Road teams entering off a game in which they allowed at least 60 points are 150-97 to the Under (60.7%) since 1989, generating +43.3 units and a +15.9% ROI;

• Play UNDER: Road teams arriving off a game in which they allowed at least 60 points, provided they are not underdogs of +20 or more, are 104-45 to the Under (69.8%) since 1989, generating +54.5 units and a +33.3% ROI.

Tulane's offensive deficiencies and Rice's run-dominant option attack provide a strong statistical foundation for a lower-scoring contest. The Green Wave have struggled to sustain possessions, protect their quarterback, and finish drives, while Rice's limited passing production makes the Owls heavily dependent on extended rushing possessions. These characteristics, combined with several historically profitable UNDER situations, support a game featuring fewer scoring opportunities than the teams' recent defensive performances might suggest. Take the Under as Jeff Keim's Free Pick Winner for Saturday, November 14.

13-2 ALL SPORTS RUN: 75% RUN NCAAB: We continue win, and win big on the college hoops hardwood with my 2-0 SLAM DUNK and my GEORGIA/NORTH CAROLINA WINNER. Don’t forget I am on an 8-2 NCAAF RUN and all my games tomorrow are BIG GAME WINNERS.

Free play

As of posting this release, I see Northern Iowa +27.5. This is a lot of points my friends. I feel anything over +25.5 is a gift.

Friday’s FREE WINNER: Northern Iowa.

Game 869.

5:00 PM PST/8:00 PM EST.

Yes, my friends, that’s not a typo, I like Northern Iowa in a matchup against Michigan State. It’s not because they’re 2-1 SU this season. It’s also not because they covered their last game. It is because Michigan State is in a very odd position, right now. Yes, the Spartans are 3-0 both SU and ATS this season, and have covered numbers of over 30 points. However, they come off a November 10 home victory against the Blue Devils, in which they were a 7.5-point underdog. Normally, I would look to raise an eyebrow at taking the home team here. However, looking at their schedule, I see they have University of Tennessee on the road in four days. The Volunteers are a very solid team, ranking 11th right now. MSU, in my opinion will get caught in a sandwich situation here. I’m not saying it’s a letdown situation. They’re not gonna’ lose this game.  I’m just saying they come off a big game win and have another big game up next. They don’t have to keep their foot on the gas here. A season ago, Michigan State failed to cover their first three games of the regular season laying big wood; they took down Colgate 80-69 as a 21.5-point fav, they took down San Jose State 79-60, as a 24.5-point favor, and they took down Detroit-Mercy 84-56 as a 31.5-point fav. Yes, they won all those games with authority. But failed to cover in each period meanwhile, during their first month or so of this season, they took down such notables as Kentucky, North Carolina, and Iowa. So, they get up for the big games, but take their foot off their gas against lesser opponents. Take the points with the Panthers. Thank you.