Tom Macrina
Event: (459) New York Jets at (460) Jacksonville Jaguars
Sport/League: NFL (See all free NFL Football picks)
Date/Time: December 14, 2025 1:00 PM EST
Free NFL Football Pick Today: New York Jets +13.5 (-108)
New York Jets vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Betting Analysis
The Jacksonville Jaguars (9-4 SU) are riding high atop the AFC South, but this matchup against the struggling New York Jets (3-10 SU) presents a potential trap game. While the Jaguars are favored by a hefty 13.5 points at home, I believe the line is inflated, making the Jets an intriguing underdog play. Let's break it down.
Team Records and ATS Trends
Jets: 7-6 ATS overall, including 3-2 ATS on the road and a strong 5-3 ATS in their last eight games. Despite their dismal straight-up record, they've been competitive against the spread, especially lately.
Jaguars: 8-5 ATS overall, with an impressive 5-1 ATS at home and a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last four outings. Jacksonville has been dominant, winning four straight games, including a statement victory over the division-rival Indianapolis Colts last week.
The Jets, meanwhile, were blown out by the Miami Dolphins in their most recent game, extending their playoff drought to 15 consecutive years—the longest active streak across the four major North American sports leagues.
Injury Report
Jets: Running back Breece Hall is questionable and quarterback Tyrod Taylor is listed as out. Brady Cook will get the start, which could impact their already sputtering offense.
Jaguars: No major injuries reported, giving them a clear health advantage.
Offensive and Defensive Struggles
The Jets have been abysmal on both sides of the ball. Over their last four games, they've averaged just 15.3 points per game (PPG), highlighting their offensive woes. Defensively, they've been equally vulnerable, allowing 20 or more points in each of their last six contests.
In stark contrast, the Jaguars have been explosive, averaging 30.8 PPG over the same four-game span. Quarterback Trevor Lawrence has been sharp, but notably, he's never been installed as this large of a favorite in his career, which could add pressure in an unfamiliar role.
Situational Factors and Letdown Potential
Jacksonville's recent surge is undeniable, but this screams "letdown spot." Coming off an emotional high from their big win over the Colts, the Jaguars might overlook a Jets team that's been eliminated from playoff contention and has little to play for beyond pride. Adding to the lookahead factor, Jacksonville faces a tough road trip to Denver next week, followed by another divisional clash in Indianapolis—games that could demand more focus.
Despite their record, the Jets have shown some ATS heat with that 5-3 mark in their last eight. My betting model also favors New York here, projecting value on the underdog side.
Line Movement and Value
The lookahead line was Jaguars -9.5, but it opened at -8.5 and has ballooned to -13.5, likely due to Jacksonville's hot streak and New York's blowout loss. This movement feels overreactive, creating a "hold your nose" underdog opportunity. I'd advise shopping for the best number—aim for +13.5 or better if possible.
Final Pick
In a game where the spread seems too wide for a Jaguars team in potential regression mode, I'm backing the Jets +13.5. It's not pretty, but the value is there.
Let's cash some tickets!
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Tom Macrina
Event: (469) Washington Commanders at (470) New York Giants
Sport/League: NFL (See all free NFL Football picks)
Date/Time: December 14, 2025 1:00 PM EST
Free NFL Football Pick Today: New York Giants -2.5 (-112)
Washington Commanders vs. New York Giants: Betting Analysis
Team Records and ATS Trends
Washington Commanders (3-10 SU, 4-9 ATS): The Commanders have struggled mightily this season, particularly on the road (1-5 ATS) and in recent games (1-7 ATS over their last 8). They've been unable to find consistency, losing their last 8 contests outright.
New York Giants (2-11 SU, 7-6 ATS): Despite a dismal straight up record, the Giants have been more reliable against the spread, especially at home (3-2 ATS). They've dropped their last 7 games but have shown flashes of competitiveness in covering lines.
Injury Report
Commanders: Key absences include quarterback Jayden Daniels (out) and tight end Zach Ertz (out). These losses severely hamper their offense, especially with Daniels sidelined again after a recent injury.
Giants: No major injuries reported, giving them a clear health edge coming off their bye week.
Recent Form and Market Movement
The betting line has shifted dramatically in favor of the Giants, moving them from underdogs to favorites. This flip is largely due to Daniels injury, which compounds Washington's woes after an embarrassing loss to Minnesota last week. The Commanders have averaged just 13 points per game over their last 3 outings and only 16.8 PPG on the road, highlighting their offensive struggles.
Meanwhile, the Giants are fresh off a bye, which should leave them healthier and more rested. Both teams rank as average offensively overall, but neither has been stout defensively. Advanced metrics slightly favor Washington's defense on paper, though the Giants have faced a tougher slate of offenses, potentially skewing the numbers.
Key Stats and Trends
Commanders' Struggles in Specific Spots: Washington is 0-8 SU in games before facing Philadelphia, 0-5 SU in the first leg of back-to-back division matchups, and now facing a team off a bye for the fourth time this season—a scenario that hasn't gone well for them.
Division Dynamics: This is an NFC East clash, with the Giants hosting and motivated to secure a win—potentially Mike Kafka's first win as head coach.
Defensive Context: While both units have underperformed, the Giants' bye could provide the extra preparation needed to exploit Washington's depleted attack.
Betting Recommendation
In a matchup between two reeling teams, the edge goes to the home side coming off rest. The Giants should capitalize on Washington's injuries and road inefficiencies to snap their skid. Look for New York to find a way to win here.
Current lines show Giants -2.5 across most books. If it creeps to -3, that's a good sign, but grab -2.5 now before any further movement. For those avoiding the spread, the moneyline at -136 offers solid value.
Always shop for the best odds—head over to Oddslogic.com to compare lines and ensure you're getting the top number available.
Let's cash some tickets!
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Bryan Power
Event: (201) Old Dominion at (202) South Florida
Sport/League: CFB (See all free College Football picks)
Date/Time: December 17, 2025 5:00 PM EST
Free College Football Pick Today: Old Dominion +3.5 (-110)
2% Old Dominion (5:00 ET): USF is a team I am most definitely looking to FADE this bowl season. This is a program in transition as it is going through a coaching change. Alex Golesh is off to Auburn. He’s being replaced by Brian Hartline, the offensive coordinator for Ohio State. New players and a whole new staff will be heading to Tampa. So the existing group is probably wondering about its future right now. On top of that, even the USF seniors can’t be too excited about this final game. This is a team that had College Football Playoff aspirations less than a month ago. Now, they find themselves playing in one of the very first bowls. It’s not even a destination for the players as the Cure Bowl takes place in Orlando. So I just don’t think we get a very solid effort out of the Bulls.
Keep in mind I felt this way before the key opt-out was announced Wednesday night. QB Byrum Brown won’t play and I’m pretty sure he won’t be the only USF player making that decision. Now I’m also aware that Old Dominion starting QB Colton Joseph has also opted out. But his likely replacement, Quinn Henicle, accounted for 349 total yards (including 200 rushing!) in his lone career start. The USF QB situation is a little murkier with either Locklan Hewlett or Gaston Moore likely to get the nod. Also keep in mind it remains to be seen who will be calling plays for the USF offense. The market initially moved towards ODU, even with the Joseph news. Then we saw a second move after Brown opted out. No surprise there.
Even without their starting QB, ODU should be quite motivated to win. It’s just the fourth ever bowl game for the program and they weren’t in one last season. While a 41-38 loss to Navy sank USF’s season (I had Navy +10.5), ODU closed the regular season strong with five straight wins. It wasn’t against the best of competition in the Sun Belt. However, worth noting that the Monarchs’ defense allowed a total of just 47 points in that five-game stretch, including only 26 in the last four. I’ll be adding to this analysis closer to kickoff, but wanted to make the play available now before the line moves any further. 2% Old Dominion (Play the ML if ODU ends up favored)
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Joe Duffy
Event: (306633) Prairie View A&M at (306634) South Dakota
Sport/League: CBB (See all free College Basketball picks)
Date/Time: December 13, 2025 2:00 PM EST
Free College Basketball Pick Today: Prairie View A&M +8.5 (-109)
The official outlaw line is 16.5. Our outlaw line is what the line would be without public perception or square line moves. This is also the biggest KenPom edge of the day as that power ratings have just 17. Going with underdogs off a much larger margin of victory is 317-227-11. Big dogs not playing on opponent’s home court are 312-232-7.
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David Hess
Event: (725) Arizona at (726) Alabama
Sport/League: CBB (See all free College Basketball picks)
Date/Time: December 13, 2025 9:30 PM EST
Free College Basketball Pick Today: Total Under 178.0 (-110)
Arizona–Alabama is being lined with a lofty total at 178, but the matchup points toward the Under when you dig into the numbers. Arizona has been efficient offensively at 88.5 points per game on 53.1% shooting, yet they play at a controlled pace and their defense has been excellent, holding opponents to just 67.1 points per game on 39.5% shooting. Alabama brings firepower with 95.1 points per game and a heavy reliance on the three-ball (36.1 attempts per game, 3rd nationally), but their defense has been shaky, allowing 79.2 points per game and ranking near the bottom in opponent field goal percentage. Even so, Arizona’s ability to slow tempo and contest shots makes it unlikely this turns into a track meet. Both teams rebound well, limiting second-chance scoring, and Arizona’s defensive efficiency is built to neutralize high-volume offenses. With one side leaning on pace control and the other prone to streaky shooting, breaking into the 170s would require both teams hitting above their averages. History and current form suggest this lands closer to the mid-160s, making the Under 178 the sharper side.
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Jesse Schule
Event: (481) Minnesota Vikings at (482) Dallas Cowboys
Sport/League: NFL (See all free NFL Football picks)
Date/Time: December 14, 2025 8:20 PM EST
Free NFL Football Pick Today: Total Over 47.5 (-110)
This is a free play on the Over.
The Cowboys lost 44-30 at Detroit last Thursday, and I gave you Dallas TT Over. I said I was confident they would score, but not so much that they could stop Detroit from scoring. They face the Vikings on Sunday night, and JJ McCarthy has been a total bust if you judge him on his overall numbers. He was decent against Washington last week, and as far as matchups go, it doesn't get any more favorable than facing Dallas, who owns the worst pass defense in the NFL. McCarthy has faced some tough opponents so far, and when he's faced weaker opposition he's had better performances. Don't be surprised if both teams get their share of points on Sunday night.
GL,
Jesse Schule
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Ricky Tran
Event: (669) Nebraska at (670) Illinois
Sport/League: CBB (See all free College Basketball picks)
Date/Time: December 13, 2025 4:00 PM EST
Free College Basketball Pick Today: Nebraska +10.5 (-110)
Ricky's 1* play on NEB.
Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. Here in this game the recent history of these two teams is particularly significant.
- Nebraska is 10-4 ATS in its last 14 games.
- Nebraska is 7-0 ATS in its last 7 games played in December.
- Nebraska is 10-0 in its last 10 games.
Verdict: The value is on the Road Underdog.
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Mike Lundin
Event: (197) Boise State at (198) Washington
Sport/League: CFB (See all free College Football picks)
Date/Time: December 13, 2025 8:00 PM EST
Free College Football Pick Today: Washington -10.0 (-109)
Boise State/Washington College Football Free Pick
The Trend(s): The Washington Huskies are 6-3 against the spread as favorites, 5-2 when laying nine points or more. Boise State is 0-2 straight up and 1-1 against the spread as underdogs, and the game they covered they were spotted over three touchdowns.
Play on: WASHINGTON (2%).
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Terry Edelmann
Event: (77) Florida Panthers at (78) Dallas Stars
Sport/League: NHL (See all free NHL Hockey picks)
Date/Time: December 13, 2025 8:07 PM EST
Free NHL Hockey Pick Today: (DAL) Jason Robertson Anytime Goal (+140)
(77) Florida Panthers at (78) Dallas Stars
Play: (DAL) Jason Robertson Anytime Goal (+140) at Fanduel
Since November 11th, Jason Robertson has been the hottest goal scorer in the NHL, tallying 17 goals and scoring in 13 of his last 16 games. Over his last 20 games, Robertson is averaging 3.9 shots on goal per game. In what should be a high scoring game I like Robertson to continue his goal scoring success in this game.
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Terry Edelmann
Event: (77) Florida Panthers at (78) Dallas Stars
Sport/League: NHL (See all free NHL Hockey picks)
Date/Time: December 13, 2025 8:07 PM EST
Free NHL Hockey Pick Today: (FLA) Carter Verhaeghe Anytime Goal (+240)
(77) Florida Panthers at (78) Dallas Stars
Play: (FLA) Carter Verhaeghe Anytime Goal (+240) at Fanduel
Carter Verhaeghe enters this game having scored in 4 of his last 5 games and 6 of his last 8. He has been shooting the puck frequently, recording at least 3 shots on goal in 7 consecutive games, with an average of 3.71 shots per game during this stretch.
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Terry Edelmann
Event: Two Team NHL Parlay
Sport/League: NHL (See all free NHL Hockey picks)
Date/Time: December 13, 2025 7:07 PM EST
Free NHL Hockey Pick Today: Carolina Hurricanes ML + Vegas Golden Knights ML (+176)
Play: Carolina Hurricanes ML + Vegas Golden Knights ML (+176) at Fanduel
Carolina has won 3 of their last 4 games and has dominated the last 15 matchups against Philadelphia, winning 14 of them. While Carolina is the stronger team overall, the Flyers have improved this year, especially at home. I expect a close game, with the Hurricanes finding a way to come out on top. They will be the first leg of my two-team parlay.
Vegas has gone 5-0-1 in their last 6 games and has been involved in close contests, going to overtime in 4 of their last 5. Columbus has struggled recently, losing 4 consecutive games. Historically, Vegas is 4-1-1 in their last 6 meetings with Columbus.
I like both of these favorites to win, but I don’t trust them to do so in regulation, making them good pieces for a plus-money parlay.
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Terry Edelmann
Event: (77) Florida Panthers at (78) Dallas Stars
Sport/League: NHL (See all free NHL Hockey picks)
Date/Time: December 13, 2025 8:07 PM EST
Free NHL Hockey Pick Today: Total Over 5.5 (-120)
(77) Florida Panthers at (78) Dallas Stars
Play: FLA/DAL Over 5.5 (-120) at Fanduel
Florida enters this game with a 15-13-2 record overall and a 5-7-0 record on the road. The Panthers come in after a 6-2 loss to Colorado, following a 4-3 win against Utah to start their road trip. Florida has gone OVER 6.5 goals in 3 of their last 4 games.
Dallas is 21-6-5 on the season and 10-4-1 at home. The Stars’ winning streak was snapped in their last game, a 5-2 loss to Minnesota. Dallas has gone OVER 6.5 goals in back-to-back games.
The first meeting between the teams this season resulted in a 4-3 win for Florida. Historically, Florida has won the last 5 matchups against Dallas, with the last 10 games all going OVER 5.5 goals and 8 of those 10 going OVER 6.5. There is a strong trend of high-scoring games in this matchup, and both teams are currently trending toward the OVER in their recent contests.
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Terry Edelmann
Event: (463) Buffalo Bills at (464) New England Patriots
Sport/League: NFL (See all free NFL Football picks)
Date/Time: December 14, 2025 1:00 PM EST
Free NFL Football Pick Today: (NE) Drake Maye Over 233.5 Pass Yards (-114)
(463) Buffalo Bills at (464) New England Patriots
Play: (NE) Drake Maye Over 233.5 Pass Yards (-114) at Fanduel
Drake Maye has been very consistent with his passing yards, recording 259 or more yards in 8 of his last 9 games. In his two starts against Buffalo last season, Maye threw for 261 and 273 yards. Given Buffalo’s strong pass defense, the low number of 233.5 offers good value. This is an important game for both teams and is likely to be a close, back-and-forth contest. This line is too low for one of the most consistent quarterbacks in the NFL this season.
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Terry Edelmann
Event: (471) Indianapolis Colts at (472) Seattle Seahawks
Sport/League: NFL (See all free NFL Football picks)
Date/Time: December 14, 2025 4:25 PM EST
Free NFL Football Pick Today: (IND) Alec Pierce Over 28.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
(471) Indianapolis Colts at (472) Seattle Seahawks
Play: (IND) Alec Pierce Over 28.5 Receiving Yards (-110) at Draftkings
Alec Pierce has quickly become one of my favorite players in the NFL, as he continues to cash tickets for me repeatedly this season. This will be a tough test against a strong Seattle defense, especially with Daniel Jones going down with an injury. It is likely to be 44-year-old Philip Rivers making the start, as he was signed out of retirement this week. Because of this, Pierce’s receiving yards prop is set at 28.5, which I believe is too low. Pierce has recorded at least 36 receiving yards in 12 of his last 13 games and at least 67 yards in 8 of his last 10 games.
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Ben Burns
Event: (457) Las Vegas Raiders at (458) Philadelphia Eagles
Sport/League: NFL (See all free NFL Football picks)
Date/Time: December 14, 2025 1:00 PM EST
Free NFL Football Pick Today: Philadelphia Eagles -11.0 (-110)
The Raiders managed to eke out a fortunate cover against the Broncos. However, this week, they're in the wrong place, at the wrong time. Off three straight losses, the defending champs are going to be all business from the opening kickoff. While they're not consistently playing the way that were last season, the Eagles are still more than capable of turning it on and blowing out the (2-11) Raiders.
Off last week's loss, Philadelphia coach Sirianni had this to say: "There was a lot of good things on offense on Monday night. It was really good defense, it was really good special teams and there were a lot of good things on offense. I come away encouraged from that game, knowing that we have things to clean up. ... No one is pressing, everyone is just thinking, how do we get ourselves in the best position to win this game and play our best game?" Look for Sirianni's Eagles to “clean things up” and “play their best game,” en route to a one-sided win on Sunday afternoon. *good up to -13
Ben Burns is the defending NFL champion and he has the #1 NFL record since 2023.
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Sniper Wes
Event: (471) Indianapolis Colts at (472) Seattle Seahawks
Sport/League: NFL (See all free NFL Football picks)
Date/Time: December 14, 2025 4:25 PM EST
Free NFL Football Pick Today: Seattle Seahawks -13.5 (-108)
The Indianapolis Colts have unraveled after a promising start, dropping three straight and losing Daniel Jones for the season. In response, the team signed Philip Rivers out of retirement, but all signs point to Riley Leonard getting the start after taking the bulk of practice reps. Brett Rypien has been elevated from the practice squad as insurance, but no matter who lines up under center, the Colts are walking into a bad matchup at a bad time.
Seattle, meanwhile, is surging. The Seahawks entered halftime tied 6-6 with Atlanta last week and still exploded for 31 second-half points in a dominant 37-9 win. Despite committing multiple turnovers, they intercepted Kirk Cousins twice and completely controlled the game, another testament to what Mike MacDonald has built on both sides of the ball.
The Seahawks now sit at 10-3 overall and 10-3 ATS, consistently rewarding bettors and proving they can handle business as favorites, a role they’ll assume for the 11th time this season. With the Colts scrambling for answers and severely limited offensively, the gap in firepower is hard to ignore.
Seattle is rolling, Indianapolis is reeling, and this one sets up perfectly for another Seahawks runaway victory.
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Event: (479) Tennessee Titans at (480) San Francisco 49ers
Sport/League: NFL (See all free NFL Football picks)
Date/Time: December 14, 2025 4:25 PM EST
Free NFL Football Pick Today: San Francisco 49ers -12.5 (-108)
San Francisco comes off a bye, a spot where they’ve thrived, winning their last three post-bye openers by a combined 79-39. They enter on a three-game win streak and sit 8-5 ATS, consistently rewarding backers. Expect a heavy dose of Christian McCaffrey, who’s averaged 19 carries, 5.3 catches and 337 total yards over his last three games. When Brock Purdy avoids turnovers, this offense is extremely difficult to slow down.
Tennessee, meanwhile, is fresh off just its second win of the season, making this a prime letdown spot. Even in victory, Cam Ward threw for only 117 yards at 50% completion, and the offense relied almost entirely on Tony Pollard’s 161 rushing yards. That won’t come easy against a 49ers defense that has allowed only four opponents all year to top 100 rushing yards.
If the Titans can’t run, the game falls on Ward’s shoulders, and that’s a matchup San Francisco will gladly take.
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The Gold Sheet
Event: (465) Baltimore Ravens at (466) Cincinnati Bengals
Sport/League: NFL (See all free NFL Football picks)
Date/Time: December 14, 2025 1:00 PM EST
Free NFL Football Pick Today: Baltimore Ravens -2.5 (-115)
This is the second meeting in three weeks between Baltimore and Cincinnati after the Bengals ruined the Ravens' Thanksgiving with an 18-point road win. Baltimore generated 6.1 yards per play in that contest, but turned the ball over five times as the Bengals held a 38:46-21:14 advantage in time of possession. The Ravens are licking their AFC North wounds after falling at home to the Steelers last week. Baltimore out-gained Pittsburgh by over 100 yards and had nine more first downs, but went 2-for-6 in the red zone and lost the turnover battle. Cincinnati also let one slip away last week as the Bengals blew a double-digit lead in the fourth quarter in Buffalo. Wide receiver Tee Higgins is going through concussion protocol this week after taking some hard hits against the Bills. We've been wrong on A LOT of Baltimore's games this season, but it's hard to ignore how bad the Bengals' defense has been. Buffalo generated 416 total yards on 6.9 yards per play against Cincinnati last week. As long as the Ravens don't lose four fumbles again (which apparently is an issue for them at the moment), Baltimore should be able to do whatever it wants against the Bengals defense. Higgins didn't play for Cincinnati in that Thanksgiving contest and Joe Burrow only completed 52.2-percent of his passes. If Higgins is out again, the Bengals will lose a big piece from their passing game.
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Event: (465) Baltimore Ravens at (466) Cincinnati Bengals
Sport/League: NFL (See all free NFL Football picks)
Date/Time: December 14, 2025 1:00 PM EST
Free NFL Football Pick Today: Baltimore Ravens -135
My selection is on the Baltimore Ravens. The Bengals crushed the Ravens in Baltimore on Thanksgiving night. A week later, they nearly stunned the Bills in a snowy thriller, falling just short in a 39-34 heartbreaker that effectively dashed their faint playoff chances and could leave some emotional hangover.
Baltimore, reeling from that Thanksgiving setback, then suffered another defeat to Pittsburgh over the weekend. Despite that, the Ravens maintained a notable advantage in several advanced stats from the prior matchup. Cincinnati might be without star receiver Tee Higgins, who's back in concussion protocol. Bengals supporters had held out hope for defensive end Trey Hendrickson's comeback, but those dreams are dashed after his season-ending core muscle surgery this week. In the end, Baltimore's stronger defense should make the difference. Go with the Ravens.
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Jesse Schule
Event: (235) North Texas at (236) San Diego State
Sport/League: CFB (See all free College Football picks)
Date/Time: December 27, 2025 5:45 PM EST
Free College Football Pick Today: San Diego State +6.0 (-114)
This is a free play on SDSU.
This line looks fair based on who these teams were this season, but I think by the time this game rolls around it will be a case of the wrong team favored. The Mean Green head coach is gone to Oklahoma State, and motivation may be in question coming off a loss that eliminated them from the College Football Playoffs. Most expect QB Drew Mestemaker to hit the portal, so I wouldn't count on him playing in this game. The Aztecs had the best defense in the Mountain West, and may well have been the best team in the conference despite missing out on the Conference Championship game due to tie breakers. I'll lock in this dog early, expecting this line to move in my favor.
GL,
Jesse Schule
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