Matthew Boyd gets the ball for Chicago, and the Cubs have won each of his last seven starts. During that stretch, Boyd has been dominant, posting a sparkling 2.41 ERA while consistently giving the Cubs quality innings and putting them in position to win.
The Cardinals haven't enjoyed the same success with Dustin May on the mound. St. Louis has dropped each of May's last four starts, and his inconsistency has been a major issue throughout the season. May enters Wednesday with a 4.59 ERA and has struggled to put together back-to-back strong outings.
It's not just the pitching matchup that favors Chicago. The Cardinals are slumping, having lost eight of their last 10 games while their offense continues to struggle for consistency. Meanwhile, the Cubs have built momentum after opening the series with a convincing victory and have won three of their last four games.
Chicago's lineup also matches up well against May. Active Cubs hitters own a .306 lifetime batting average against him with an outstanding 1.071 OPS, suggesting they've consistently seen the ball well against the right-hander.
With Boyd pitching at an elite level, the Cubs riding a seven-game winning streak in his starts, the Cardinals trending in the wrong direction, and Chicago's lineup holding a strong history against Dustin May, the value is on the visitors.