Serbia vs Greece
UEFA Nations League, Thursday, 2:45pm ET
Play: Greece or Draw (-220) & Over 1.5 Goals (-295)
Odds at Time of Release: +100 MGM
Line Parameter: Line good to -120
Serbia and Greece kick off their UEFA Nations League Group A bids with a match in Serbia, with the other two teams in this group being the Netherlands and Germany. So basically this means that Serbia and Greece are the two underdogs in this group, they will try to make the best of it ahead of the EURO Qualifiers.
Important note here is the fact that the Nations League also offers a path to the 2028 EURO, so a lot of teams will look to go as deep as possible. Bigger teams sometimes overlook this competition and just use it to test players and systems, but lower teams like Serbia and Greece don't really have that luxury - they fight for every match possible.
Serbia brought back some of their old guard but still remain a deeply troublesome nation. They had a lot of quality in the past but failed miserably, and now under coach Paunovic (who is not exactly a good tactician), Serbia are continuing to struggle with a W2 L4 record since he took over, beating only Saudi Arabia in a friendly and Latvia in the Qualifiers. Lost to Mexico by 5-1, to Cape Verde by 3-0, to Spain by 3-0 and to England by 2-0. The quality is there, but Serbia seem to be lacking essence.
Greece are coming here with almost their best squad, and with a relatively low age average. They have a lot of players playing in the big European leagues, and some of them are killing it, like Pavlidis for Benfica with 14 Goals and 3 assists in 13 matches this season, Kostoulas is having a tremendous start with Brighton in the EPL (4 Goals and 2 Assists in 6 starts), Tzolis with 4 assists in 8 matches with Arsenal, and the list goes on.
Greece also have stability issues and the coach isn't great either, but he finally moved on from the old guard who, realistically, were just dragging the team back and didn't allow the younger players to evolve. Now this group has only a few players over 25 years of age, the future is bright, offense is lethal and defense can be good at times.
Maybe I'm too close to this game (I am a Greek living in Greece), but I do think that Greece have what it takes to at least avoid a loss here.
A pretty straightforward bet here is Greece +0.0, or Greece PK, or Greece Draw no Bet, these are all the same bet, just worded differently. This bet wins if Greece win, it's a Push if the match ends in a Draw and it's a loss if Greece lose.
However, I am going to pivot to a Same Game Parlay with Greece or Draw Double Chance (-220) & Over 1.5 Goals (-295) which is +100 at MGM, that way we also get paid with a Draw, but we need at least 2 goals in the match. If you don't want to risk so much, you might as well go with Greece Draw no Bet (or Greece +0.0).
The Play is a Same Game Parlay with Greece or Draw (-220) & Over 1.5 Goals (-295) final price +100 MGM, line good to -120
