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Montreal has been the class of the CFL all season, finishing 14-4, averaging a league-best 34.7 points per game and going undefeated at home. They're deserving favourites in the Eastern Final, but I'm not convinced the gap between these teams is as wide as this number suggests. Getting more than a touchdown with Winnipeg is an opportunity I'm happy to take.

The Blue Bombers were far from perfect against Toronto last week, turning the ball over multiple times and struggling offensively for stretches. However, they still found a way to win, and Dru Brown delivered when it mattered most with a late touchdown drive to take the lead with just 44 seconds remaining. I expect a more composed performance from him with another week of preparation as the starter. Winnipeg doesn't need Brown to be spectacular, but they do need to avoid the costly mistakes that put them in trouble against Toronto.

Montreal has been off since October 23, giving the Alouettes 15 days between games. That extra preparation and recovery time can certainly be beneficial, but it's also a long layoff heading into a playoff game. Winnipeg comes in with a little more game rhythm after playing last weekend, and I think that could be an advantage early on.

I also like the matchup for Winnipeg's defence. The Bombers led the CFL with 77 pass knockdowns this season while allowing just 274.8 passing yards per game, the second-fewest in the league. That's an encouraging profile against a Montreal offence that averaged nearly 35 points per game and relies heavily on its ability to move the football through the air. If Winnipeg can make Davis Alexander work for his completions and limit the explosive plays, they have a chance to keep this game much closer than the spread suggests.

Ultimately, I'm not asking Winnipeg to win outright. Montreal is the better team on paper, but there's a big difference between picking a winner and laying more than a touchdown in a playoff game. I think the market is giving us too many points with the underdog, and I'll gladly take the cushion.

Selection: Winnipeg Blue Bombers +8.5