Alex Bowman Over Ross Chastain (+105)
Ross Chastain is one of the most aggressive drivers in the field, but that style comes with volatility. When he’s on, he can run anyone down. When he’s not, he’s just as likely to wreck his own day. Alex Bowman is the opposite: steady, disciplined, and at his best in long green-flag runs.
That’s where we find our edge. Bowman manages tire wear well and holds a consistent pace as a run stretches out, which positions him to outlast a driver who tends to burn his tires early and leave himself exposed late. He also avoids the mistakes that end a day, and in a head-to-head matchup, simply finishing ahead is all we need.
The price makes this even more appealing. At -135, Chastain has to beat Bowman about 57.4% of the time just to break even. For a driver with his wreck risk, that’s a steep ask. Bowman at +105 only needs to win about 48.8% of the time, and with Hendrick Motorsports’ strong baseline speed behind him, we like those odds. Yes, Chastain has the higher ceiling if the race turns chaotic, but we don’t have to pay a premium for that upside.
Our Pick: Alex Bowman Over Ross Chastain (+105)
Let’s cash some tickets!