Free UEFA Predictions for February 17

Bryan Power

Event: (224213) Real Madrid at (224214) Benfica: 3-Way Moneyline

Sport/League: UEFA

Date/Time: February 17, 2026 3:00 PM EST

Free UEFA Pick Today: Real Madrid -105

3% Real Madrid (3:00 ET): This is a major revenge spot for Los Blancos, who infamously lost here at the Estadio de Luz on the final matchday of the League Phase, by a score of 4-2. That dramatic result secured Benfica a spot in the Knockout Stage, but only on goal differential after a header from goalkeeper Anatoliy Trubin found the back of the net - eight minutes into stoppage time - right after two Real Madrid players had been sent off the pitch. Conversely, that result denied Los Blancos a top eight finish in the League Phase, which would have meant automatic progression to the final 16 of the competition. I am expecting a different result in this first leg of the Knockout Playoff.

While Real Madrid haven’t been their usual consistent selves in Europe this season, they’ll make this second trip to Portugal having won four of their last five across all competitions including three straight in La Liga where they are now top of the table following Saturday’s dominating 4-1 victory over Real Sociedad. That was without Kylian Mbappe, mind you. (More on him in a moment). I think it’s also worth mentioning that Real Madrid closed around -140 for the League Phase match vs. Benfica. Now we’re able to get them at a cheaper price. They controlled 67% of possession for the previous fixture. Not only did Benfica get the stoppage time header (when Real Madrid were down two men) but they converted a penalty in 1H stoppage time as well!

Besides the revenge angle, the other big story here is that Mbappe is set to return. He scored both goals for Real Madrid in the previous fixture. I know that Jude Bellingham and Rodrygo are both out Tuesday, but Mbappe and Vinicius Junior (two goals Saturday) are enough to convince me that the Spanish side is the right one to back in this first leg (Trent Alexander-Arnold back as well after being out for the previous fixture). Mbappe has 13 goals in seven UCL matches, the highest rate of any player in a single UCL campaign with at least five matches played. He leads a Real Madrid attack that was 1st in the League Phase in direct attacks and 4th in goals scored with 21, more than double what Benfica scored (10). 3% Real Madrid (Play to -140)

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