Stuttgart vs Gladbach
Bundesliga, Friday, 2:30pm ET
Play: Gladbach Over 1.5 Cards
Odds at Time of Release: -143 BR
Line Parameter: Good to -175
Gladbach under tremendous pressure right now despite changing their manager recently, they still lost their 2 matches. They are the only team in the Bundesliga without a point after 6 matches (W0 D0 L6) and one might think that this is an easy fade spot. However, teams in such a spot, especially after having changed their manager, tend to cause upsets. And this manager used to manage St Pauli, and his teams tend to be extremely tight, especially on the road. Plus, his teams usually get at least 2-3 cards, especially on the road.
I wouldn't blame anyone for betting Stuttgart here, but you have to keep in mind that they did play mid-week in the Champions League, they have injuries and are not doing too well in the Bundesliga so far (W2 D0 L4). Plus, they lost their weekend match after playing mid-week in the Champions League on both occasions this season, a 2-1 away at Hoffenheim after Match Day 1 and a 1-0 away at Hamburg after Match Day 2.
Then again, Stuttgart easily beat Gladbach in both matches last season and have won 4 of L/5 H2Hs regardless of venue, also 4 of L/5 in this venue.
Odds don't really reflect the danger of the situation here, Gladbach (and any team that is winless in the first 6 matches) is under tremendous pressure, it won't be long before they get their first points (although it seems more realistic for them to do so in one of their next two matches).
Gladbach Cards in L/5: 3/3/6/5/3
Stuttgart Cards Against at home: 3/5/3/3
Gladbach taking the lead at any point in the game will have them drop back and play massive defense to hold on to the result, which means cards. I definitely see Gladbach getting at least 2 cards here regardless of what happens in the game (unless it's a blow-out, which is always a possibility, I just think Gladbach will come here to destroy the game).
Main bet here is Gladbach Over 1.5 Cards, and throwing 0.5* on Gladbach Draw no Bet at +600, knowing fully well that Stuttgart could win this 4-0.
Take 2* on Gladbach Over 1.5 Cards (-143 BR), line good to -175
