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Today’s Free Picks

The PLAY: Jacksonville Jaguars +3.5 (-110)

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Denver Broncos: Game Analysis and Pick
Team Records and Trends
The Denver Broncos enter this matchup with the NFL's best record at 12-2, riding an impressive 11-game winning streak. They're undefeated at home and are pushing hard for the No. 1 seed in the AFC playoffs. Meanwhile, the Jacksonville Jaguars are no slouches at 10-4, having won and covered the spread in their last six games straight. They're battling to maintain their lead atop the AFC South division.
Broncos' Strengths and Momentum
Denver's success stems from a well-balanced offense and a stout defense. They've dominated by excelling in the run game, controlling both lines of scrimmage, and dictating the pace. Rookie quarterback Bo Nix has been highly efficient, managing games effectively while the ground attack chews up clock and wears down opponents. This formula has propelled them through a string of victories, many of them hard-fought and close. However, as favorites of 3 or more points since October, the Broncos have struggled against the spread, going just 1-5 in those spots—highlighting a tendency to win but not always cover larger margins.
Jaguars' Edge and Resilience
Jacksonville ranks in the top 10 league-wide for both scoring offense and defense, making them a formidable all-around team. Their run game, led by dynamic back Travis Etienne, provides a potent punch, while their defense tops the NFL in run stopping and ranks second with 18 interceptions. Quarterback Trevor Lawrence appears locked in and confident, fueling their recent surge. Notably, the Jags have won their last two games outright as underdogs, showing they thrive in high-pressure road environments. This resilience could be key against a Broncos squad that's relied on narrow escapes in several wins.
Key Matchups and Game Outlook
This is a high-stakes clash with major playoff implications for both sides. Expect a gritty, low-scoring affair dominated by defenses—think a classic battle in the trenches where clock control and field position matter most. Jacksonville's elite run defense could neutralize Denver's ground-and-pound approach, forcing Nix into more passing situations where the Jags' ball-hawking secondary shines. On the flip side, Denver's home dominance and overall balance make them tough to beat outright.
A key turnover could swing the outcome in this tightly contested game. While the Broncos have been winning machines, the Jaguars have looked like a well-oiled unit lately, especially as underdogs.
The Pick
Given Denver's ATS struggles as sizable favorites and Jacksonville's hot streak, I'll back the road dog to keep it close.
Jaguars +3.5

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The PLAY: Carolina Panthers +3.0 (-114)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Carolina Panthers: NFL Week Analysis
Team Records and Betting Trends
Both teams sit at .500 with 7-7 straight-up (SU) records, making this a pivotal clash in the NFC South standings. Tampa Bay has struggled against the spread (ATS), posting a 5-9 overall mark, including a dismal 1-7 ATS in their last eight games and 0-4 ATS in their last four. They've leaned toward overs with an 8-6 over/under (O/U). Carolina, conversely, has been more reliable ATS at 8-6 overall and 4-2 ATS at home, with a balanced 7-7 O/U.
Betting Lines and Movement
The line opened with Tampa Bay as 2.5-point favorites but has shifted to a consensus -3 across most books, indicating sharp money or public action on the Bucs. The total started at 44.5 and has risen to 45.5 at many sportsbooks, with some offering 46, suggesting expectations for increased scoring as bets come in. Keep monitoring—if it dips back to 2.5, that could present even better value on Carolina.
Recent Form and Context
This matchup carries massive divisional implications. Tampa Bay enters with extra rest following a Thursday Night Football loss to Atlanta, marking their second straight defeat after also falling to the Saints. They've dropped five of their last six games overall and failed to cover in their last four outings. Carolina, fresh off a loss to the Saints, has shown resilience, particularly at home where they recently upset the Rams.
Both squads are middling overall, but context matters. The Panthers have tightened up defensively since a blowout loss to Buffalo earlier in the season, allowing fewer points and playing with more cohesion.
Statistical Breakdown
Offensively, the Buccaneers average 23.4 points per game (PPG) and remain a high upside unit when healthy, capable of explosive outputs. Carolina lags at 18.9 PPG overall but elevates to 22.3 PPG in home games, where quarterback Bryce Young has thrived in the passing game.
Defensively, Tampa Bay surrenders 25.3 PPG and has been vulnerable against teams with competent aerial attacks— a potential exploit for Young. Carolina allows 22.6 PPG but has improved markedly post-Buffalo, making them stouter than the numbers suggest.
Matchup Analysis
Tampa Bay's offense is clicking with key players healthy, posing a threat to rack up points against Carolina's defense. However, their own defensive woes—especially against the pass—could be exposed by Young's home-field proficiency. The Panthers have proven reliable as betting underdogs, particularly at home, where they've covered well and shown grit.
Contrastingly, backing a slumping Buccaneers squad that's lost five of six and failed to cover repeatedly feels risky. Carolina has historically struggled as favorites but excels in the home underdog role, as evidenced by their recent win over the Rams. This setup favors a competitive, back-and-forth affair rather than a Bucs blowout.
Prediction and Betting Angle
In a toss-up between two average teams, we're siding with the home underdog. Back Carolina +3, with an eye on line movement—if it reverts to +2.5, that's prime territory. The Panthers' home form, defensive improvements, and Young's passing edge make them a strong play here. For added value, sprinkle on the Carolina moneyline (+130 or better implied); they have a legitimate shot to win outright and shake up the NFC South. Expect the total to climb further, but the spread value lies with the Panthers keeping it close—or pulling the upset.
Take Panthers +3

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The PLAY: Tulane +17.5 (-115)

Tulane vs. Ole Miss: College Football Playoff Analysis
Team Records and Betting Trends
Tulane enters the matchup with a strong 11-2 straight-up (SU) record, but a middling 7-6 against the spread (ATS) and a 4-9 over/under (O/U) mark, indicating a tendency toward lower-scoring games. Ole Miss, meanwhile, boasts an impressive 11-1 SU record, with a 7-5 ATS and an even 6-6 O/U, showing balance but no strong lean toward overs or unders.
Betting Lines and Movement
The line opened with Ole Miss as 16.5-point favorites but has since climbed to -17.5, reflecting growing confidence in the Rebels. The total has also ticked up from 55.5 to 56.5, suggesting expectations for a slightly higher scoring affair. This movement could stem from public perception of Ole Miss as a powerhouse, but it warrants scrutiny given the context.
Previous Meeting
These teams clashed on September 20th in the same venue, where Ole Miss dominated with a 45-10 victory. The Rebels were 11.5-point favorites then and covered easily, outgaining Tulane 548-282 in total yards. However, that game represented Tulane's nadir of the season, coinciding with quarterback Jake Retzlaff's transition from BYU. Tulane has shown marked improvement since, evolving into a more cohesive unit.
Key Changes and Intangibles
Much has shifted in the intervening months. Notably, Lane Kiffin will not be coaching Ole Miss, which introduces uncertainty despite the team's abundant talent and potential motivation to prove themselves with a chip on their shoulder. For Tulane, this rematch offers a chance at redemption on a bigger stage.
This marks the first College Football Playoff appearance for both programs, adding an element of unpredictability. Historically, interim or first time bowl coaches have struggled, which could play into Tulane's favor if Ole Miss's staff adjustments lead to early game hiccups. Tulane has built a reputation as a gritty underdog, particularly against Power Five opponents, thriving in high pressure environments without being overwhelmed by the spotlight.
Matchup Breakdown
Offensively, Tulane's run heavy approach could exploit Ole Miss's defense by controlling the clock and limiting the Rebels explosive possessions. This strategy aligns well with Tulane's identity and could keep the game closer than the spread implies. On the flip side, Ole Miss holds a clear edge in offensive firepower, capable of quick strikes that could widen the gap if Tulane falls behind early.
The jump from an 11.5-point spread in September to 17.5 now feels inflated. Is the extra six points justified? Tulane's growth and Ole Miss's coaching absence suggest not, especially in a playoff setting where motivation runs high on both sides.
Prediction and Betting Angle
We're leaning contrarian here by backing Tulane to cover the +17.5 spread. While Ole Miss isn't a household name like some SEC giants, they've garnered significant media buzz lately, potentially inflating the line and creating value on the underdog. Public sentiment might push the number higher, so holding out for an even better spot could pay off.
Ultimately, expect the Rebels to advance, but this contest should be far more competitive than the spread or their prior blowout suggests. Tulane's resilience and strategic matchup make them a live dog in what could be a hard fought battle under the bright lights.
Take Tulane +17.5

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