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Today’s Free Picks

The PLAY: Colombia to Reach the Quarterfinals

If you were living under a sports betting rock and didn't know what the pre-match odds were, you never would have known that Colombia was a fairly-sizable underdog against Portugal on Friday. Colombia out-played Portugal by a healthy margin in Miami, and if it hadn't been for the out-stretched toe nail of Davinson Sanchez on a highly-questionable offside call, the Colombians would have earned nine points in the group stage. Colombia enjoyed a 1.70-0.92 advantage in expected goals and out-shot Portugal 24-13 with 15 of those shots coming from inside the box. We tip our cap to Ghana for advancing from Group L, but Colombia should handle this first test with relative ease. Ghana deserves plenty of credit for earning that 0-0 draw against England, but England was not overly impressive in any of its three group stage matches. A 2-1 loss to Croatia and a 1-0 win over Panama aren't moving the needle for us, and Colombia should handle business in the Round of 32. They would play the winner of Switzerland-Algeria after that, and we have some major concerns about Switzerland's fitness in this tournament. In the group stage opener against Qatar, the Swiss completely ran out of gas in the second half as they allowed Qatar to score the game-tying goal in the 94th minute. The same thing nearly happened again in the finale against Canada where the Swiss only generated a total of six shots. All three goals that Switzerland has allowed in this tournament have come after the 75th minute. The longer the Swiss stay in this event, the louder we'll be asking questions about their fitness. The opposite is true for Colombia, who have made deep runs in the last two editions of Copa America. Colombia has plenty of tournament experience and they appear to be hitting their stride heading into the knockout round.

The PLAY: Jackson Chourio Runs Over 0.5 (-125) Action

After missing the first six weeks of the season, Brewers' left fielder Jackson Chourio found his stride over the last month. Chourio hit .319 with a .375 on-base percentage in the month of June with 17 extra-base hits and 23 runs scored. After going 2-for-4 with a home run on Tuesday, Chourio should enjoy another favorable matchup tonight against Cincinnati's Andrew Abbott. Chourio has gone 3-for-7 with two home runs and a walk in eight prior plate appearances against Abbott. Chourio is hitting .333 with a .387 on-base percentage against lefty pitching this season. Abbott enters Wednesday in the bottom-25th percentile among pitchers in expected ERA, expected batting average allowed, average exit velocity and strikeout rate. Abbott has allowed a home run in each of his last four starts, including three home runs allowed in 5.1 innings in his last start against the Pirates. We've analyzed this matchup in a couple different ways, but we are interested in Chourio to score a run, which is available at -122 at DraftKings and -125 at BetMGM on Wednesday morning. Chourio has scored 33 runs in his last 41 games. He's earned a walk in each of his last three games and Abbott does have a high walk rate, so we want to capture some potential opportunities for Chourio to get on base without needing a hit. Since June 1, the Brewers' lineup is hitting .271 against lefty pitching (No. 6 in MLB) with a .346 on-base percentage (No. 3) and a 115 wRC+ (No. 6). So Milwaukee's lineup is clicking against lefties right now, and there will be opportunities to bring Chourio home. And hey, he might just do it himself with a home run like last night.