Right pitching matchup, strong statistical data and a powerful 68 percent long-term trend all point to a clear-cut winner long-time baseball sharp Stephen Nover has found on this run line play. Read the evidence and be rewarded with a tidy Thursday profit!
Member Notes
Today’s Free Picks
| Sport | Game Selection | Game Time |
|---|---|---|
| WNBA | (605) Seattle Storm at (606) Phoenix Mercury | 10:00pm EDT - Jul 2/2026 |
The PLAY: Phoenix Mercury -3.5 (-115)
The Phoenix Mercury were not that good to reach the WNBA Finals last season. But they are certainly better than their underachieving 7-13 record this season.
The Mercury have begun to show positive signs. They have won and covered each of their last two games beating the Tempo without suspended Alyssa Thomas and defeated the Fever as underdogs in each matchup, both of which were on the road.
Now Arizona is home and Thomas is back from suspension. The thuggish Thomas is my least favorite player in the WNBA. But she also is one of the five best all-around players in the league.
This is a great opportunity for the Mercury to keep their momentum going taking on a Seattle team they have dominated and who has the second worst record in the WNBA at 5-15.
The Mercury have won three consecutive meetings with Seattle, including both this season, winning those two games by an average of 12 points, holding the Storm to just 38 percent shooting each time.
Seattle ranks second to last in scoring and field goal percentage. The Storm are 1-8 on the road.
The Storm are off a pair of upset wins themselves beating the Dream and Liberty, two of the better teams in the league. Impressive yes. Note, though, each of those wins came at home.
Before upsetting Atlanta and New York, the Storm had lost 11 straight games. Seattle has lost eight consecutive road games with all of the losses except one occurring by double digits.
Ezi Magbegor is set to make her Storm debut today. She ranked second in blocked shots last season, but is not a difference maker. Her minutes figure to be limited, too.
Streaky Kahleah Copper has been hot for Phoenix. She is averaging 26.5 points a game during her last six games. Given Cooper's hot scoring hand and the return of Thomas, the Mercury should take care of business.
(Editor's note: Stephen Nover is 16-7 on his last 23 WNBA premium/free plays beating the league for the sixth time in seven years. He has a WNBA premium play today in addition to this free selection.)
Consultant Bio
Stephen Nover is unique among professional handicappers. A multiple award-winning sportswriter for numerous newspapers, including the Las Vegas Review-Journal, Nover has one the best combinations of gambling and media sources in the world.
The author of two sports gambling books, "Las Vegas Sports Beat" and "Sports Gaming Beat", along with a book on fantasy football titled, "Winning Fantasy Football", Nover is a former professor at the University of Nevada-Las Vegas having taught a football handicapping class there. He also was the co-host of the Sunday night sports betting radio show "The Stardust Line" during the 1990's.
Parlaying nearly 50 years worth of professional gambling experience with tremendous knowledge of the players through elite deep-roster Rotisserie leagues and building on copious gaming and media sources - having worked for newspapers in the Midwest, South and West and also for legendary Hall of Fame oddsmaker Roxy Roxborough - Nover is a true Las Vegas wise guy. He helped learn his craft from such masters as Roxborough, Dave Malinsky, Lem Banker and Russ Culver.
Part of what makes Nover so special is the pride he takes in writing his deep-dive analysis, which always is unique, well-researched and sometimes entails out-of-the-box thinking.