Three night winners are on the board tonight, all after 8 ET. We're leveraging more data and sharper intel than ever, and the analysis has never been stronger. Expect a POWERFUL, REMARKABLE sweep. Don't miss tonight's card.
Member Notes
Today’s Free Picks
| Sport | Game Selection | Game Time |
|---|---|---|
| MLB | (903) St. Louis Cardinals at (904) Chicago Cubs: Total | 8:08pm EDT - Jul 4/2026 |
The PLAY: Total Under 8.0 (-105) Action
At first glance, this total looks a bit surprising coming off Friday night's 17-1 explosion, but that is exactly why there is value on the Under. Oddsmakers could have easily overreacted to the offensive outburst with a total in the 9.5-10 range. Instead, they opened at 8.5, signaling respect for Saturday's pitching matchup and the expectation of a much different game. That fits perfectly with our long-term system in which today's total, relative to recent totals, triggers a profitable Under angle that has gone 4414-3642-385.
The starting pitching strongly supports that expectation. Chicago hands the ball to left-hander Shota Imanaga, who has consistently limited hard contact and given the Cubs quality innings. His command allows him to work efficiently, and he rarely gives opponents multiple big innings. St. Louis counters with Kyle Leahy, who has earned this opportunity through effective work and enters with projection models expecting a competitive outing rather than an early exit. (EV Analytics)
Just as important is what happened Friday. After scoring 17 runs on 17 hits, the Cardinals are unlikely to duplicate that offensive eruption against a far superior starter. Baseball frequently produces regression after extreme offensive performances, particularly when the opposing pitching quality takes a significant step up.
The bullpens also favor lower scoring. Both relief staffs have been reliable, with St. Louis grading among the better bullpens in baseball by projection models, reducing the likelihood that late innings become a scoring fest. Even if one starter exits after five or six innings, there are quality arms available to protect the Under. (EV Analytics)
The rivalry itself also lends itself to tighter games. Division opponents know each other's tendencies well, and after Friday's embarrassment, expect the Cubs to place added emphasis on cleaning up the defensive mistakes and preventing another offensive avalanche. Meanwhile, St. Louis should be satisfied trying to secure the series rather than engaging in another slugfest.
From a betting perspective, this is a classic case of trusting the market. Casual bettors remember only Friday's fireworks and instinctively lean Over. Oddsmakers, however, posted a total of just 8.5 despite that result, indicating respect for the pitching matchup, bullpen strength, and expected regression. Combined with our long-term 4414-3642-385 system that plays Unders when today's number is suppressed relative to recent totals, this shapes up as an excellent opportunity to back a lower-scoring divisional matchup.
Another factor supporting the Under is the projection models. Massey Ratings projects approximately 7.5 total runs, creating roughly a 1.0-run edge versus the posted total of 8.5. In baseball, an edge approaching a full run is significant and reinforces the value on the Under.
Independent projection models also lean toward a higher-scoring contest, with several forecasting around double-digit total runs, creating value against a posted total of 9. When respected models align with both the matchup and a long-term profitable totals system, it strengthens the case that this game has a strong chance of reaching double figures.
Consultant Bio
Joe Duffy: From Prodigy to Sports Handicapping Pioneer
Joe Duffy has been handicapping sports literally since childhood. Growing up in suburban Philadelphia, he became fascinated with picking winners against the spread when the Philadelphia Inquirer ran a season-long contest featuring professional handicappers selecting five NFL games each week.
Using the same point spreads as the pros, young Joe submitted his own “armchair picks.” In his very first year, he outperformed every official contestant by several games—a moment that sparked a lifelong obsession with sports betting.
Throughout his pre-teen years, Duffy continued as a “fantasy handicapper,” consistently finishing near or at the top of the contest. During grade school and high school, he was a devoted listener to Mickey Charles’ weekend handicapping shows on WCAU-AM, where legends like Mike Lee and Lem Banker shared their theories. True to his studious nature, Duffy even took notes, absorbing every detail like a sponge.
It was no coincidence that years later, he got his first break in the industry with Charles’ company. While paying his way through college, Duffy began working as a Scorephone announcer for Dial Sports 976 Scorephones. At the same time, he honed his broadcasting skills as a play-by-play announcer for California University of Pennsylvania’s radio and TV stations.
Upon graduation, Duffy immediately transitioned into a full-time handicapper and scorephone announcer for the toll-free score services. There, he studied directly under two legendary mentors: Ray Scott, the iconic broadcaster who won the Pete Rozelle Radio-Television Award from the Pro Football Hall of Fame in 2000, and Hank Stram, the Super Bowl–winning coach inducted into the Hall of Fame in 2003. Both played a major role in shaping Duffy’s career.
Duffy’s trajectory continued upward as he became General Manager of the national Freescoreboard scorephones. During this era, fellow announcers nicknamed him “Mr. March” for his dominance during college basketball’s conference tournaments and NCAA Tournament. That moniker evolved into “The Lord of the Big Dance,” a title he still carries proudly, having posted a winning March Madness every year since 1998.
Over the decades, Duffy has become one of the most published voices in sports betting strategy. He has written extensively, hosted and guested on podcasts and videos, and earned national recognition as a featured expert. His insights have appeared on ESPN, Bleacher Report, and across countless TV, radio, and digital platforms worldwide.
Today, Joe Duffy stands as the leading handicapper in advanced analytics, leveraging statistically significant computer systems and proprietary betting formulas to deliver consistent results. What began as a childhood passion has evolved into a career of unmatched credibility, longevity, and influence in the sports handicapping industry.