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Member Notes
Today’s Free Picks
| Sport | Game Selection | Game Time |
|---|---|---|
| MLB | (905) Arizona Diamondbacks at (906) San Diego Padres | 9:40pm EDT - Jul 6/2026 |
The PLAY: San Diego Padres -125 Brandon Pfaadt (RHP), Walker Buehler (RHP) Must Start
What could be more even than the Diamondbacks meeting the Padres with both teams 44-45? Certainly the oddsmaker sees it that way making San Diego a slight home favorite.
I see it differently. I believe the Padres should be a bigger favorite based on the starting pitching matchup of Brandon Pfaadt versus Walker Buehler and San Diego being home.
The Padres have a winning record at Petco Park. Arizona is 17-25 on the road.
Pfaadt has a 5.40 ERA and 1.41 WHIP. He is giving up 1.7 home runs and 3.7 walks per nine innings and is not a big strikeout pitcher.
Buehler has a 4.61 ERA that is somewhat misleading. Buehler had allowed only one earned run during each of his last five starts spanning 30 2/3 innings entering his last outing. That unfortunately came against the Cubs at Wrigley Field with the wind blowing out and he was hammered for nine earned runs in four innings.
The setting couldn't be more different now for Buehler. His days of being an ace for the Dodgers are long finished because of injuries, but he has settled down to become a respectable pitcher for San Diego. I can't say that about Pfaadt.
The bar is not set high here for Buehler. The Diamondbacks are averaging 3.4 runs in their last nine games. They are below average in all of the major offensive categories.
San Diego also holds a bullpen edge with the seventh-lowest ERA at 3.73. Arizona relievers have a 4.14 ERA.
(Editor's note: Stephen Nover is 19-8 on his last 27 WNBA premium/free plays and is 9-1 on his last 10 WNBA totals plays. Stephen has his top July WNBA Over/Under play going today in addition to this free selection.)
Consultant Bio
Stephen Nover is unique among professional handicappers. A multiple award-winning sportswriter for numerous newspapers, including the Las Vegas Review-Journal, Nover has one the best combinations of gambling and media sources in the world.
The author of two sports gambling books, "Las Vegas Sports Beat" and "Sports Gaming Beat", along with a book on fantasy football titled, "Winning Fantasy Football", Nover is a former professor at the University of Nevada-Las Vegas having taught a football handicapping class there. He also was the co-host of the Sunday night sports betting radio show "The Stardust Line" during the 1990's.
Parlaying nearly 50 years worth of professional gambling experience with tremendous knowledge of the players through elite deep-roster Rotisserie leagues and building on copious gaming and media sources - having worked for newspapers in the Midwest, South and West and also for legendary Hall of Fame oddsmaker Roxy Roxborough - Nover is a true Las Vegas wise guy. He helped learn his craft from such masters as Roxborough, Dave Malinsky, Lem Banker and Russ Culver.
Part of what makes Nover so special is the pride he takes in writing his deep-dive analysis, which always is unique, well-researched and sometimes entails out-of-the-box thinking.